Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 1st Qtr. of 2003

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-6-2003 (S&P starts at 908.59)

Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied; the S&P 500 traded from 869.25 to 911.25, closing up for the week, at 908.59. As described previously in Plazaview, the market has a favorable (September ‘02) base from which to rally but the recent advance is vulnerable to the ongoing correction, begun in March of 2000. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from the September of 2002, correction low but down by (-38.16%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up, while the immediate trend is struggling to regain the momentum of its October - November ascent. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not ended and that limits each rally. The favorable price base of thirteen weeks ago, is in place but the recent advance is vulnerable to turning back down, near the base. The market has an upper target at (S&P 500) 935 but it is not inclined to sustain rallies and sooner or later, the lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804 will be tested.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved up at first and mostly lower for the week. The week's range went up to 110.10/32, down to 105.19/32,, and closed down, at 106.15/32.

This week begins with the Bond still moving sideways, seeking a top. It will soon rally back up to 109.17/32, before the April of 2000 advance is complete. The Bond has been trending sideways since September's peak and it is not yet finished forming a potential top. The Bond is range bound, between the September high of 112 and 102. This week begins above the range's mid-point but last week's selling action brings 105.10/32 in range as a lower target in this sideways trend.

Last week, the 30 year Bond's yield rate moved from 4.709% to 5.005%, moving higher and closing for the week at 4.964%. The rate continued within a consolidation range of 4.606% to 5.214%, begun in late September of ‘02. The yield rate hit both of the Plazaview forecasted, lower targets: 4.789% and 4.709%.

The yield rate is still in the downtrend, begun in January of 2000. Since September of 2002, it has been and is currently moving sideways, nearly forming a base from which to rise. This week, the yield rate has a lower target of 4.783% and an upper target of 5.014%. Beyond the immediate targets, a wider range of more distant targets are at 4.665% and 5.239%. The lowest rate is still unsettled and the range will widen in time.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range from 103.2 to 101.8, closing at 102.47, nearly unchanged by the end of last week Although the dollar went to lower levels, it continues to be oversold and in the low end of a consolidating range.

This week, the dollar index remains critically poised at the low end of its downward trending correction. It is overextended at this low end and overdue for a rebound. The market may test slightly lower before a bottom price is established. Significant downside movement is unlikely to persist, that would be excessive. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend but short term, it is in a bearish correction. Since July, the dollar index has consolidated in the depth of its correction phase, as a holding pattern. Eventually it will rebound, returning to an initial target of 111.70, then to 119.41 and 120.22. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency ranged from 1.0505 to 1.0336, closing at 1.0418, nearly unchanged by the end of last week. The EC has moved sideways since July of ‘02 and last week, attempted to further extend its overextended top level.

The EC begins this week at a near term top, positioned to move lower. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due, soon. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but eventually, moved sideways and now it is again testing the July top. An unwinding of that January to July, to recent price advance is now testing the limits of its advance. The EC is at or near the end of its current advance. A sustainable advance is unlikely to support higher price levels without the correction of a pullback. The lower target of .9313 is now an early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved down and up last week. It traded in a range of $28.95 to $26.75 closing nearly unchanged, at $28.4. As forecast in Plazaview, a price rebound has been in progress.

This week, CO's (June) price is overextended and due for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.32. A top price is not in place and the advance will resume but the market is due for some liquidation to correct the current imbalance of buyers.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved broadly last week. HU-M traded between $.9035 and $.854, closing nearly unchanged at $.9035.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) has moved to an overextended advance and now it is due for some liquidation of buyers' positions. A pullback to an initial target of $.8345, maybe $.7977, possibly $.7479 is due. Further upside potential is now limited by the greater potential for a pullback to correct the immediate price imbalance of buyers.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up and down last week. It traded from $.744 to $.711, closing slightly higher, at $.7374.

This week, the HO market price is near the top of its current range, fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand. The seasonal cold of weather may influence buyers and but that is likely to be limited as a pullback is due. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price traded mostly higher last week. The NG-M moved from $4.39 to $4.785, closing up, at $4.755.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in these energy markets. Last week's rally has further overextended the current price advance. The market is due for a temporary pullback, to correct a buy side imbalance. While an immediate correction is due, the market is rising in a significant uptrend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-13-2003 (S&P starts at 927.57)

Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied for a second week. The S&P 500 traded from 908.32 to 932.89, closing up for the week, at 927.57. As described previously in Plazaview, the market has a favorable (September ‘02) base from which to rally but the recent advance is vulnerable to the ongoing correction, begun in March of 2000. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from the September of 2002, correction low but down by (-36.87%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up, while the immediate trend is struggling to regain the momentum of its October - November ascent. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not ended and that limits each rally. The favorable price base of fourteen weeks ago, is in place but the recent advance is vulnerable to turning back down, near the base. The market has been moving to the Plazaview forecast target at (S&P 500) 935 but it is not yet inclined to sustain rallies and eventually, the lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804 will be tested.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved lower for most of the week. The week's range went up to 107.3/32, down to 104.7/32 and closed down, at 104.30/32.

This week begins with the Bond still trending sideways, as it has since September's peak. With a turn of direction, it will eventually rally back up to targets of 106.26/32 and 109.17/32. However, a rally is now delayed as the Bond's sideways movement has developed a downward trend from last week's action. The Bond is still range bound, moving between the September high, near 112 and October low of 102.13/32. This week begins at 104.30/32, below mid-range, a downward start for the week with a potential target of 102.

Last week, the 30 year Bond's yield rate moved from 4.907% to 5.094%, moving higher and closing up for the week at 5.056%. The rate continued moving within a consolidation range of 4.606% to 5.214%, begun in late September of ‘02. The yield rate hit the Plazaview forecast target of 5.014%.

The yield rate is still in the downtrend, begun in January of 2000. Since September of 2002, it has been and continues moving sideways, rising from the potential base of September. This week, the rising yield rate is vulnerable to moving back down. Lower targets are waiting at 4.921% and 4.783%. The rate is unsettled and the range will widen in time. Beyond the immediate targets, a wider range of more distant targets are at 4.665% and higher, at 5.239%.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range from 102.97 to 101.22, closing lower, at 101.23, nearly unchanged by the end of last week. The dollar was moved again to lower levels. It continues to be oversold and now in the former consolidating range of 1998 and 1999.

This week, the dollar index remains languishing at the low end of its downward trending correction. It is overextended at this low end and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. The market is now less likely to test lower but a bottom price is not established. Significant downside movement is unlikely to persist for much longer. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend but short term, it is at the low end of a bearish correction. Since July, the dollar index has consolidated in the depth of this correction phase but December brought it lower. It must rebound, to unwind the extreme, current low. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency ranged from 1.0363 to 1.0583, closing higher, at 1.0579 by the end of last week. The EC has moved sideways since July of ‘02 and last week, further extended its overextended top level in December.

The EC begins this week at a near term top, positioned to move lower. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due, soon. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but eventually, moved sideways and now it is beyond the July top. The current price advance is now pushing the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely to support higher price levels without the correction of a pullback. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is a more distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved inside the prior week's range last week. It traded in a range of $28.64 to $27.21 closing marginally lower, at $28.16. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is overextended and due for some liquidation.

This week, CO's (June) price is still overextended and due for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.32. A top price is not in place and the advance will eventually resume but first, the market is due for some liquidation.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved within the prior week's range last week. HU-M traded between $.8988 and $.8525. As forecast in Plazaview, HU-M closed lower, at $.8802.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is still at an overextended elevation and due for some more liquidation. It is still close enough to rally back up to $.9035 but a pullback will take the market down to initial targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited now by the greater need for a pullback, to correct the immediate price imbalance of buyers.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved down last week. It traded from $.741 to $.705, closing lower, at $.7236. As forecast in Plazaview, a pullback is due.

This week, the HO market price is near the top of its current range, fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand. The seasonal cold of winter weather may influence buyers but that is likely to be limited as another pullback is due. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price remained above and within the upper level of the prior week's range last week. The NG-M moved to $4.86 and $4.595, closing marginally lower, at $4.711.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains NG buyers in these energy markets. Last week's relative steadiness delayed correction of the currently overextended, price advance. The market is still due for a pullback, to correct a buy side imbalance. A lower, nearby NG-M target is at $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

(Note: Begin change of order: Yield rate and Bond before stock index forecast)

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-20-2003
(30 yr., Bond yield rate begins at 4.925% and the S&P starts at 901.78 )

Last week, the 30 year Bond's yield rate moved from 5.092% to 4.918%, moving lower and closing down for the week, at 4.925%. The rate moved down but continued moving sideways, within a consolidation range of 5.214% to 4.606%, begun in late September of '02. The yield rate hit the Plazaview forecast target of 4.921%.

This week, the yield rate is still in a downtrend, begun in January of 2000. Since September of 2002, it has been and continues moving sideways, with a
gradually rising trend from the potential base low of 4.606%. This week, the rising yield rate may be moved up to 4.966% and 5.028% but it is more
vulnerable to moving back down to 4.783%. The rate is unsettled and the range will widen in time. Beyond the immediate targets, a wider range of more distant targets are lower, at 4.665% and higher, at 5.239%.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved higher for most of the week. The week's range went from 104.5/32 , up to 106.29/32, closing up, at 106.28/32. The
Bond moved up to the Plazaview forecast target of 106.26/32.

This week begins with the Bond still trending sideways, with a downward bias as it has since September's peak. With a continued turn of direction, it will eventually rally back up to the target of 109.17/32. The Bond is still range bound, moving between the September high, near 112 and the lower
target of 102.13/32. This week begins at 106.28/32, near mid-range, a positive start for this week.

Last week, the U.S. stock market failed to rally. The S&P 500 traded from 935.05 to 899.02, closing down for the week, at 901.78. As forecast in
Plazaview, the S&P 500 moved precisely to the target of 935. Also described previously in Plazaview, the market is vulnerable to the ongoing correction,
begun in March of 2000. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from the September of 2002,
correction low but down by (-38.62%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is struggling to regain the momentum of its October -
November ascent. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not ended and that will limit each rally. The favorable price base of
fifteen weeks ago, is in place but the market is eventually turning back down, near the base. The market has reached the upper target forecast in
Plazaview and it turned back down last week. The market is still inclined to fail again on rallies and eventually, the lower targets of (S&P 500) 842
or 804 will be tested.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range from 101.07 to 100.31, closing lower, at 100.55 for the week. The dollar was moved again
to lower levels continuing to be oversold and now it is in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999.

This week, the dollar index remains languishing at the lowest end of its downward trending correction. It is overextended at this low point and
overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. The market is now less likely to test lower but a bottom price is not established. Significant downside movement
is unlikely to persist much longer. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend but short term, it is at the low end of a bearish over-correction phase. Since the July low of 104.06, the dollar index has consolidated in the depth of this correction phase but since December, it has moved lower. It must rebound and it will as all markets do, to unwind the extreme, current low. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase, forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency ranged from 1.0508 to 1.0679, closing higher, at 1.0667 by the end of last week. The EC has moved sideways since July of '02 and last week, further extended its overextended top level.

The EC begins this week at a near term top, well positioned to break down from this advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but eventually, moved sideways and now it is back, above the July
top. The current price advance is pushing the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely; the start of a correcting move downward is
due. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is a more distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved up last week. It traded in a range of $27.93 to $29.98, closing higher, at $29.94. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is overextended and due for some liquidation. Last week's advance was extended by an increased threat of Middle-East conflict and colder weather in the U.S.A.

This week, CO's (June) price is overextended and primed for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.32. A top price is not in place but the advancing market is due for liquidation.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved up last week. HU-M traded from $.88 to $.9323, closing higher, at $.9323. As forecast in Plazaview, HU-M moved up, to the $.9035 target.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is still at a very overextended elevation and due for selling action. A pullback will take the market down, initially to targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited now, by the greater need to correct the immediate price imbalance of buyers, resulting from temporary and fundamental factors.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up last week. It traded from $.725 to $.7703, closing higher, at $.7703.

This week, the HO market price is at or near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand and potential conflict developing in the Middle-East. These fundamental influences upon buyers are not enough to sustain the current level and a pullback is close. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price was more contained than the other energy markets but it advance in unanimity, last week. The NG-M moved from $4.70 to $4.99, closing up, at $4.903.

This week, as with HO, HU, and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict is of less value to sustain buyers of NG and the other energy markets. Last week's advance set the market for a soon approaching turn, to correct the currently overextended market price. The market will soon pullback and correct the buy side excess. A lower, nearby NG-M target is at $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-27-2003
(30 yr., Bond yield rate begins at 4.841% and the S&P starts at 861.40 )

Last week, the 30 year Bond's yield rate moved from 4.954% to 4.816%, mostly lower and closed down for the week, at 4.841%. The rate moved very close to the upper target of 4.966% and closer to the lower target of 4.783% as forecast in Plazaview. The rate continued moving within a consolidation range of 5.214% to 4.606%, begun in late September of ‘02.

This week, the yield rate is still in a downtrend, begun in January of 2000. Since September of 2002, it has been and continues moving sideways with a gradually rising trend, from the potential base low of 4.606%. This week, the yield rate has upper targets of 4.966% and 5.028% but it is more vulnerable to moving further down, back to 4.783%. The rate is unsettled and the range will widen in time. Beyond the most immediate targets described, a wider range of more distant targets are down to 4.665% and later, up to 5.239%.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved mostly higher for the week. The week's range went from 106.13/32, up to 108.17/32, closing up, at 107.28/32. The Bond moved closer to the Plazaview forecast target of 109.17/32.

This week begins with the Bond still trending sideways, with a downward bias as it has since September's peak. It will eventually rally back up to the target of 109.17/32. The Bond is still range bound, moving between the September high, near 112 and the lower target of 102.13/32. This week begins at 107.28/32, above mid-range, a positive start for this week.

Last week, the U.S. stock market failed to rally and moved lower as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 traded from 906 to 859.71, closing down for the week, at 861.4. As forecast in Plazaview, the S&P 500 had previously moved to the forecast target of 935 and resumed the ongoing correction, begun in March of 2000. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from the September of 2002, correction low but down by (-41.37%) from three plus years ago.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is giving back the gains of its October - November ascent. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, is in effect and that will limit each rally. The favorable price base of sixteen weeks ago, may soon be tested by this market. The market is inclined to fail on rallies and eventually, the lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804 will be tested.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range from 100.99 to 99.12, closing lower, at 99.22 for the week. The dollar moved to lower levels, continuing to be immediately oversold and in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999.

This week, the dollar index remains at the lowest end of its downward trending correction phase, pushing the limits of excess liquidation. It is overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. This market is less likely to test lower now but a bottom price is not established and markets occasionally go to excess. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend but short term, it is at the low end of an ongoing correction of the 1998 to 2001 rise. Since the July ('02) low of 104.06, the dollar index has consolidated in the depth of this correction phase but since December, it has collapsed. It will rebound as all markets do, to unwind the extreme, current low but eventually, another move down will follow. This is a long turning process.

The Euro-Currency ranged from 1.0633 to 1.0855, closing higher, at 1.0832 by the end of last week. The EC has moved sideways since July of ‘02 and last week, further extended its very overextended top level.

The EC begins this week, overextended near a top, well positioned to break down from this advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but eventually, moved sideways and now it is back, above the July top. The current price advance is pushing the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely; the start of a correcting move downward is due. The lower targets are at $1.03, $.9906 and more distant, at $.9313.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved slightly up last week. It traded in a range of $29.4 to $30.23, closing higher, at $30.13. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is overextended and due for some liquidation. Last week's forced advance was minor, a result of extremely cold weather in the USA and an increasing potential of Middle-East conflict.

This week, CO's (June) price is still overextended and primed for a pull-back, to the $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.32. A final top price is not in place but the advancing market is due for initial liquidation.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved slightly up last week. HU-M traded from $.9125 to $.938, closing higher, at the top, $.938. A final top price is not in place but the advancing market was due for selling action.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) is still at a very overextended elevation and due for selling. A pullback will take the market down, initially to targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited by the greater need to correct the immediate buyers' price imbalance of temporary and fundamental factors.
The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved slightly up last week. It traded from $.749 to $.784, closing higher, at $.7787.

This week, the HO market price is at or very near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand and potential conflict in the Middle-East. These fundamental influences upon buyers are not enough to sustain the current level and a pullback is close. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price moved narrowly and lower last week, in contrast with the other energies. The NG-M moved from $5.01 to $4.825, closing down, at $4.825.

This week, as with HO, HU, and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict is of decreasing capacity to sustain buyers of NG and the other energy markets. Last week's decline may be the first sign for the energy markets next move, downward, from an overextended market advance. The market will soon pullback and correct the buy side excess. A lower, nearby NG-M target is at $4.429, further down is $3.843.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-3-2003
(Yield rate of 30 year T-bond begins at 4.847% and S&P 500 starts at 855.70 )

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved from 4.94% to 4.826%, closing down for the week, at 4.847%. The rate continued its sideways and downward trend. The rate stayed within the prior week's range but ended last week closer to the Plazaview forecast target of 4.783%.

This week, the yield rate is still in a long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. The rate has upper targets of 4.966% and 5.028% but this week begins with trend momentum continuing the move further down, to 4.783%. Beyond those current targets, a wider range of more distant targets are lower, at 4.665% and higher, at 5.239%. Before 5.239% is revisited, there is some potential for the rate to find its way down to test a base low in the area of 4.606%.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved within the prior week's range. The Bond ranged from 106.20/32 to 108.15/32, closing up, at 108.7/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond had a positive start for the week and it moved closer to the 109.17/32 target.

This week begins with the Bond still trending sideways, as it has since the September peak and October low of 2002. With a continued turn of direction, it will eventually continue the rally, back up to the 109.17/32 target. The Bond is still range bound, moving between the September high, near 112 and the lower target of 102.13/32. This week begins at 108.7/32, above mid-range, another positive starting week.

As forecast since 10-28-2002, last week, the U.S. stock market conclusively moved down to the first Plazaview forecasted target of (S&P 500) 842. The S&P 500 traded from 868.72 to 840.34, closing down for the week, at 855.70. With three months advance notice to Plazaview subscribers, the S&P 500 moved precisely to the first target of 842. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was improved from the September 2002, correction low but down by (-41.76%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is still in a nearly three year old correction cycle. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not ended and that will limit each rally. The favorable price base of sixteen weeks ago, is in place and nearby as the market is turning back down, testing that base level. The market has attained the first lower target as forecast in Plazaview and it is likely to continue failing on rallies. Eventually, the next lower target of (S&P 500) 804 will be tested.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range from 98.76 to 100.19, closing higher, at 99.91 for the week. The dollar index was moved only slightly lower in last week's range, holding in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is now less likely to test lower.

This week, the dollar index remains languishing at the lowest end of its downward trending correction. Last week's upward turn may be the beginning of a turn as the DX is very overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. Significant downside movement is unlikely to persist much longer. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend but short term, it is at the low end of a bearish over-correction phase. It must now rebound and it will as all markets do unwind a technical extreme, as is the current low.

The Euro-Currency ranged from 1.0905 to 1.0727, closing lower, at 1.0773 by
the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, a pull back is due.

The EC begins this week still near a top, well positioned to break down from this advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. The recent price advance has pushed the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely and the start of a correcting move downward is due. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is a more
distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved further up last week. It traded in a range
of $29.60 to $31.10, closing higher, at $30.86. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. Last week's advance was extended higher by the uncertainties of increased potential for Middle-East conflict and cold weather in the U.S.A.

This week, CO's (June) price is overextended and primed for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.67 and $23.99. A top price is not in place but the advancing market is overdue for the initial liquidation.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved up last week. HU-M traded from $.9655 to $.969, closing higher, at $.9655.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins at an extremely overextended elevation, due for the initial liquidation. A pullback will take the market down, initially to targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited now, by the greater need to correct the immediate imbalance of buyers.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up last week. It traded from $.7612 to $.8075, closing higher, at $.7996.

This week, the HO market price is overextended, at or near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand but more so by potential military conflict in the Middle-East. These fundamental influences upon buyers are not enough to sustain the current level and a pullback is pending. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit, probably sometime after the second week of February.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price was more negative than the other energy markets, last week. The NG-M moved down to $4.70 and back up to $4.945, closing up, at $4.899.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the impending Middle-East war is of tenuous value to sustain buyers of NG and the other energy markets. NG is likely to lead the energy markets, lower. Soon, the market will pullback and initially correct the buy side excess. A lower, nearby NG-M target is at $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-10-2003
(Yield rate of 30 year T-bond begins at 4.797% and S&P 500 starts at 829.69)

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved from 4.885% to 4.78%, closing down for the week, at 4.797%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued moving lower, hitting the forecast target of 4.783%.

This week, the yield rate is still in a long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. The rate has eventual upper targets of 4.966%, 5.028% and eventually, 5.239%. But, this week begins with the direction still moving lower, to 4.691% or 4.665%. There is also potential for the rate to eventually find its way further down, to test a base low in the area of 4.606%.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved higher. The Bond ranged from 107.17/32 to 109.6/32, closing up, at 108.22/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond had a positive start for the week and it continued moving toward the 109.17/32 forecast target.

This week begins with the Bond still trending higher in a long sideways path, as it has since the September peak and October low of 2002. A continued progression is expected, back up to the 109.17/32 target and higher. The Bond is still range bound, moving between the September high, near 112 and the lower target of 102.13/32. This week begins at 108.22/32, above mid-range, another positive starting week.

Last week, the U.S. stock market broke lower, below the 10-28-2002 forecast target of (S&P 500) 842. The S&P 500 traded from 864.64 to 826.70, closing down for the week, at 829.69. Plazaview subscribers have had the benefit of three months' advance notice as the (S&P 500) moved precisely to the first target of 842 and now moves to the next target. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was above the September of 2002 low, but still down by (-43.53%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is still in a nearly three year old correction. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not ended and that will continue limiting each rally. The favorable price base of seventeen weeks ago, is in place and nearby as the market has turned back down, to test that base level. The market begins this week, below (S&P 500) 842, the first lower target as forecast in Plazaview and it is likely to continue toward the next lower target of (S&P 500) 804.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range of 98.65 to 100.44, closing slightly lower, at 99.57 for the week. The dollar index was moved only slightly lower in last week's range, a second week of holding in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is now less likely to test lower.

This week, the dollar index remains in a holding pattern at the lowest end of its downward trending correction. The DX is very overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. Significant downside movement is unlikely to persist much longer. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend but short term, it is at the low end of a bearish over-correction phase. It must now rebound as all markets unwind an extreme level.

The Euro-Currency ranged from 1.0935 to 1.0694, closing marginally higher, at 1.0825 by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the break-down is due and the EC remained in the range of the prior two weeks.

The EC begins this week, still near or at a top, well positioned to break down from this advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. The recent price advance has pushed the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely and the start of a correcting move downward is due. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is a more distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved further up last week. It traded in a range
of $30.45 to $32.03, closing higher, at $32.03. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. Last week's advance was again extended higher by the uncertainties of increased potential for Middle-East conflict and cold weather in the U.S.A.

This week, CO's (June) price is overextended and primed for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.67 and $23.99. A top price is not in place but as soon as the impending Middle-East conflict is clarified, the advancing market will collapse for the initial liquidation. Cold weather influence will diminish as a driving force, beginning after this week.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved up last week. HU-M traded from $.9505 to $1.0137, closing higher, at $1.0137.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins already at an overextended elevatio, overdue for the initial liquidation. A pullback will take the market down, initially to targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited now by the greater need to correct the immediate imbalance of buyers (but) this is temporarily contradicted by political and military conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle-East.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up last week. It traded from $.7887 to $.838, closing higher, at $.837.

This week, the HO market price is well overextended, at or near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand but pushed further by uncertainties of potential military conflict in the Middle-East. Possibly this week, these fundamental influences upon buyers are not enough to sustain the current level; a pullback is pending. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price climbed steadily higher, last week. The NG-M moved in a range of $4.85 to $5.283, closing at the top: $5.283.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the impending Middle-East war is of tenuous value to sustain buyers of NG and the other energy markets. NG is likely to lead the energy markets, lower. Possibly after this week, the NG market will pullback and initially correct the buy side excess. On a sell-off, a lower and sure to be hit target is at (NG-M) $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-17-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.881% and S&P 500 starts at 834.89)

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved between 4.891% and 4.766%, closing up (+.08%) for the week, at 4.881%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued moving lower for most of the week but rallied on Friday.

This week, the yield rate has continues moving sideways as it has since November, but in a long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. The direction is moving lower, to 4.691% or 4.665%, with some potential for the rate to eventually test a base low in the area of 4.606%. Not now, after the lower targets are met, a reversal of direction will move the rate back up to targets of 4.966%, 5.028% and eventually, 5.239%.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved higher for most of the week but dropped on Friday. The Bond ranged between 107.11/32 and 109.10/32, closing down, at 107.17/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond had a positive start for the week and it continued moving toward the 109.17/32 forecast target, until (Friday, the start of an extended weekend).

This week begins with the Bond still trending higher in a long sideways path, as it has since the August, 1999 low of 85.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction is drifting sideways, nearing a potential top of September 2002, at 112.4. Upward progression is expected, back up to the 109.17/32 target and higher.

Last week, the U.S. stock market fell lower for most of the week but rallied on Friday. The S&P 500 traded between 843.02 and 806.70, closing up for the week, at 834.89. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was above the September 2002 low, but still down by (-43.18%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is still in an almost three year correction. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not ended and that will continue limiting each rally. The favorable price base of eighteen weeks ago, is in place and nearby as the market has turned back down, to test that base level. The market begins this week, below the 10-28-2002 Plazaview forecast target of (S&P 500) 842 and it is still likely to continue toward the next forecast target of (S&P 500) 804.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range between 99.41 to 100.89, closing higher, at 100.04 for the week. The dollar index moved down for most of the week but rallied on Friday a third week of holding in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is now less likely to test lower.

This week, the dollar index remains in a holding pattern at the lowest end of its downward trending correction. The DX is very overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. Significant downside movement is unlikely to persist much longer. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend and short term, it is at the low end of a bearish over-correction phase. It must now rebound as all markets unwind from an extreme level.

The Euro-Currency ranged between 1.0863 and 1.0667, closing lower, at 1.0787 by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the break-down is due and the EC trended lower, from the range of the prior three weeks.

The EC begins this week, still near or at a top, well positioned to break down from this advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. The recent price advance has pushed the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely and the start of a correcting, downward move is due. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is the more distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price moved somewhat higher last week. It traded in a range
of $31.4 to $32.75, closing +$.69 higher, at $32.72. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. Last week's advance was again extended higher by the uncertainties of potential for Middle-East conflict.

This week, CO's (June) price is overextended and primed for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.67 and $23.99. A top price is not in place but as soon as the uncertain Middle-East conflict is clarified, the advancing market will collapse, into the initial liquidation. Cold weather product demand is diminishing as a price driving force.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price moved in a narrow range last week. HU-M traded from $.991 to $1.0163, closing slightly lower, at $1.0117.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins already at an overextended elevation, overdue for the initial liquidation. A pullback will take the market down, initially to targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited now by the greater need to correct the immediate imbalance of buyers (but) this is temporarily contradicted by political and military conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle-East.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up last week. It traded from $.822 to $.8516, closing higher, at $.8472.

This week, the HO market price is well overextended at or very near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft less by seasonal product demand but pushed further by CO and uncertainties of potential military conflict in the Middle-East. This fundamental influence upon buyers is not enough to sustain the current level; a pullback is pending. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price moved cautiously higher in a narrow range of $5.15 to $5.36, closing (+$.61) marginally higher at $5.344.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand is shrinking but the impending Middle-East conflict is unsettled in sustaining buyers of NG. Possibly this week, the NG market will begin a pullback, to initially correct the buy side excess. In the eventual sell-off, a lower and sure to be hit target is at (NG-M) $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-24-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.849% and S&P 500 starts at 848.17)

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved between 4.916% and 4.793%, closing down for the week, at 4.849%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued sideways, trending lower for last week.

This week, the yield rate is moving sideways as it has since November, but in a long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. The direction is moving lower and the current rate is in a range, between targets of 4.868% and 4.709%. Lower targets are at 4.691% and 4.665%, with potential to eventually test 4.606%. In a reversal of direction, which will be more evident if the range is expanded. An upward breakout from the range may take the rate back up to an initial target of 4.966%; then, 5.028% and eventually, 5.239% may be reached.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved trended narrowly higher. The Bond ranged between 107 and 108.29/32, closing up, at 108.3/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond is still trending higher.

This week begins with the Bond still trending higher and in a long sideways path, as it has since the August, 1999 low of 85.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction is drifting up and sideways, nearing a potential top of September 2002, at 112.4. Upward progression is likely, back up to the 109.17/32 target and higher.

Last week, the U.S. stock market was moving higher and sideways in a narrow range. The S&P 500 traded between 831.48 and 852.87, closing up for the week, at 848.17. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was above the September 2002 low, but still down by (-42.27%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is still in a nearly three year old correction. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended and it will continue to limit each rally. The favorable price base of nineteen weeks ago, is in place and near. The market is more likely to resume failing on rallies and move back down, toward the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range between 99.38 to 100.69, closing marginally higher, at 100.09 for the week. The dollar index moved sideways for the week but it was a fourth week of holding at a potential base and in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is now less likely to test lower.

This week, the dollar index remains in a holding pattern at the lowest end of its downward trending correction. The DX is very overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. Significant downside movement is unlikely to persist much longer. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend and short term, it is at the low end of a bearish over-correction phase. It must now rebound as all markets will unwind from an extreme move.

The Euro-Currency ranged between 1.0846 and 1.0668, closing marginally lower, at 1.0773 by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, a break-down is due and the EC continued trending narrowly lower, for a fourth week..

The EC begins this week, still holding near or at a top, well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. The recent price advance has pushed the limits of excess. A sustainable advance is unlikely and the start of a correcting, downward move is overdue. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is the more distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price was marginally higher last week. It traded in a range
of $31.94 to $33.05, closing +$.20 higher, at $32.92. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. Last week's movement was limited in its extended elevation by the developing potential of Middle-East conflict.

This week, CO's (June) price is overextended and primed and waiting for a pull-back, to a $26.47 target and eventually, down to $25.67 and $23.99. A top price is not in place but as soon as the uncertain Middle-East conflict is clarified, the advancing market will drop into the initial liquidation. Cold weather product demand is diminishing as a price driving force.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price, last week, moved above and below the prior week's range. HU-M traded between $.99 and $1.025, closing $.0114 higher, at $1.0231.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins at an overextended elevation, overdue for the initial liquidation. A pullback will take the market down, initially to targets of $.8345 and $.7977, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold an advance is limited now by the greater need to correct the imbalance of buyers. This expected selling is temporarily contradicted and delayed by political and military conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle-East.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved slightly up last week. It traded from $.8315 to $.861, closing only +$.0074 higher, at $.8546.

This week, the HO market price is well overextended at or very near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft by CO and the uncertainties of potential military conflict in the Middle-East. This fundamental influence upon buyers is not enough to sustain the current level; a pullback is pending. Lower (June) price targets are $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 will be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price moved much higher, ranging $5.373 to $5.76 and closing (+$.407) higher at $5.751.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand is shrinking but the impending Middle-East conflict is sustaining buyers of NG as a hedge against the imported CO and HO distillate. Possibly this week, the NG market will begin a pullback, to $5.344 and begin correcting the buy side excess. In the eventual sell-off, a lower and sure to be hit target is at (NG-M) $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-3-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.676% and S&P 500 starts at 841.15)

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved lower. Ranging between 4.823% and 4.673%, the rate closed down for the week, at 4.676%. As consistently forecast in Plazaview, the rate continued trending to lower levels.

This week, the yield rate is moving broadly sideways as it has since November, but within a long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. The direction is still lower, within a range of eventual, upper targets at 4.868%, 4.849% and 4.813%. The remaining lower target is near, at 4.665%, with potential to test down to 4.606%. Note: The rate has moved steadily lower since January, 2000 and now, it is approaching a potential low point of that trend.

Last week, the cash T-bond trended higher but popped even further up on Friday. The Bond ranged between 107.29/32 and 110.31/32, closing (+2.28/32) up, at 110.31/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond is still trending higher and it hit the 109.17/32 target.

This week begins with the Bond still trending higher but near a potential top. The Bond has been in a long, sideways path since the August of 1999 low, at 86.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction has drifted up and sideways. Now, it is nearing a potential top of September 2002, at 112.4. More upward progression is likely to test up in the 112.4 area.

Last week, the U.S. stock market was moving narrowly within range of the prior two weeks. The S&P 500 traded between 818.54 and 847.29, closing marginally down for the week, at 841.15. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was above the September 2002 low, but still down by (-42.75%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend remains in its nearly three year correction. The down trending correction, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended and it will continue to limit each rally. The favorable price base of twenty weeks ago, is near and likely to be the market's next destination. The market is likely to continue failing on rallies and move back down, to the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a range between 99.24 and 100.45, closing marginally lower, at 99.71 for the week. The dollar index moved lower but sideways for a fifth week, holding at a potential base and in the former pre-rally, consolidating range of 1998 and 1999. As has been forecast in Plazaview, the market has been less likely to test lower.

This week, the dollar index remains in a holding pattern at the lowest end of its downward trending correction. The DX is very overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. However brief, a test of the lows is within potential. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend and short term, it is at the low end of a bearish over-correction phase. It now has more potential to rebound, as viable markets will unwind from an extreme move.

The Euro-Currency ranged between 1.0836 and 1.0708, closing marginally higher, at 1.0804 by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, a break-down is due and the EC continued trending narrowly lower, for a fifth week..

The EC begins this week, still holding near or at a top, well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due. The recent price advance has pushed the limits of excess and a sustainable advance would be limited to more waiting for the start of a correcting, downward move. The lower target of $.9906 is within range and $.9313 is the more distant and early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price ranged higher but gave back most of that advance by the end of the week. It traded in a range of $32.96 to $34.20, closing +$.36 higher, at $33.28. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. Last week's movement was limited and remained elevated by the uncertain, Middle-East conflict.

This week, CO's (June) price is waiting for a pull-back, to $32.11, $29.6, and $26.47 targets; eventually, down to $25.67 and $23.99. A top price is not in place but as soon as the uncertain Middle-East conflict is clarified, this over-advanced market will drop in its initial liquidation. Cold weather product demand is diminishing as a price driving force.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price, last week, moved higher. HU-M traded between $1.018 and $1.054, closing up, at $1.0425.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins at an overextended elevation, overdue for initial liquidation. A pullback will quickly take the market down, initially to targets of $1.0219, $.9919, $.9558, $.9205, and lower, possibly $.7479 as well. Potential to rally and hold the current advance is limited now by the greater need to correct the imbalance of buyers. This overdue selling is temporarily contradicted and delayed by the political and military conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle-East.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up last week but gave back much of the advance by the end of the week. It traded from $.8628 to $.898, closing higher, at $.8786.

This week, the HO market price is well overextended, lingering at or very near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally held aloft by CO and the uncertainties of potential military conflict in the Middle-East. This fundamental influence upon buyers is not enough to sustain the current level; a pullback is pending. Lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.8546, $.7887, $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price was volatile last week. It ranged between $6.60 and $5.20, but gave back nearly all of the advance, closing only +$.10 higher, at $5.761. As forecast, this market and the energy sector is limited on the upside and the market hit the forecast target of $5.344.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand is declining but the impending Middle-East conflict sustains buyers of NG as a hedge against the imported CO and HO distillate. Soon, possibly this week, the NG market will begin a pullback, to (June contract) $4.429, correcting the buy side excess.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-10-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.67% and S&P 500 starts at 828.89)

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved in a narrow range. The rate moved between 4.709% and 4.646%, closing marginally lower for the week, at 4.67%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate fell to another target (4.665%) and closer to the potential low.

This week, the yield rate is still in the long downtrend, begun in January of 2000 but it has nearly reached the last of Plazaview forecasted, target lows. The trend still aims lower and there remains potential to test 4.606%. Note: The rate has moved steadily lower since January, 2000; now, it is near a potential low point of that trend. There is a good chance that the rate will move lower but at 4.662 % to 4.606%, a rebound may have potential to turn the rate, up to targets of 4.813%, 4.849%, 4.849% and 4.966%.

Last week, the cash T-bond trended narrowly sideways. The Bond ranged between 111.11/32 and 110.8/32, closing marginally lower, at 110.26/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond is near a potential top and last week, few buyers were determined to push it higher.

This week begins with the Bond still trending higher and near a potential top but there remains some upside potential as too-early short traders may be forced to cover positions. The Bond has been in a long and sideways path, since the August of 1999 low, at 86.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction has drifted up and sideways. Now, it is nearing a potential top of September 2002, at 112.4. More upward progression is likely to test the 112.4 area.

Last week, the U.S. stock market remained within range of the prior three weeks. The S&P 500 traded between 852.34 and 811.23, closing down for the week, at 828.89. As forecast, the market continued to fail on rallies and moved lower. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was down by (-43.58%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is about two weeks from the third year anniversary of its beginning of the current down trending correction. This correction, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended but it is near a potential turning point. The favorable price base of twenty-one weeks ago, is now very near and likely to be tested. The market will continue failing on rallies and move back down, to the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804. The potential to rebound, higher, will be increased at that point.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index broke down from its prior five weeks' consolidation. The DX moved in a range of 99.92 to 97.57, closing lower, at 98.04 for the week. A brief test of the lows was forecast and the dollar moved lower in reaction to increased uncertainties, related to potential Middle-East and North Korean military action by the USA. Despite last week's action, the US dollar remains at a good potential low.

This week, the dollar index remains at the low end of its downward trending correction. The DX is very overextended at this low point and overdue for a rebound to 105 or 108. Initially, a snap-back rally will take the DX up to 99.13. Long-term, the dollar is in an upward trend and short term, it is at the low end of a correction phase. It now has more potential to rebound, as all viable markets will unwind from an extreme move.

Last week, the Euro-Currency broke above its consolidation range of the prior five weeks. It ranged between 1.077 and 1.1066, closing higher, at 1.1008 by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC had potential to go marginally higher as it did but a break-down is due.

The EC begins this week, holding near or at the top but well positioned to break down from its prolonged advance. It may linger at this higher level but a pull back is due. The recent price advance is pushing the limits of excess and sustaining the advance is limited to more waiting for the start of a correcting, downward move. The EC will move lower, initially to 1.0887 and 1.03; targets of $.9906 and $.9313 are more distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price ranged broadly but advanced by the end of the week. It traded in a range of $32.40 to $34.43, closing +$1.15 higher, at the top of its range, $34.43. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. Last week's movement resulted from the uncertain conflict in the Middle-East and now, North Korea.

This week, CO's (June) price is waiting for a pull-back, to $32.11, $29.6, and $26.47 targets. Eventually CO-(June) will go down to $25.67 and $23.99. A top price is not in place but just as soon as Iraq's unsettled conflict with the USA is clarified, there will be price liquidation.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price spiked higher, last week. HU-M traded between $1.023 and $1.1067, closing up, at $1.1067. After two months' interruption, Venezuela announced the return to a near normal level of production. But, the Iraq question was muddled by effective maneuvering with its allies, within the United Nations' review, to escape military intervention.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins at another overextended elevation. Gasoline is overdue for liquidation but the Middle East conflict supports an extended rise. A pullback will quickly take the market down, initially to targets of $1.0339, $.9919, $.9558, $.9205, and lower, possibly to $.7479. Potential to rally and hold the current advance is supported by the immediate conflict between the US and Iraq but limited by the need to correct that situation and the corresponding imbalance of speculation among energy buyers.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price moved up last week. It traded from $.855 to $.9215, closing higher, at the top if its range, $.9215.

This week, the HO market price is plainly overextended, lingering at or very near the top of its current range. It is fundamentally and temporarily held aloft by the uncertainties of potential military conflict in the Middle-East. This fundamental influence upon buyers is not enough to sustain the current advance; a pullback is pending. Lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.8927, $.8799, $.8628, $.7887, $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit. The turn will come as the Iraq intervention question is resolved with Iraqi CO production.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price ranged higher, from $5.55 to $6.053 and closed at the top of the range, $6.053. As forecast, this market and the entire energy sector is held aloft only by the daily news of impending Middle-East conflict.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand is declining but the impending Middle-East conflict sustains buyers of NG as a hedge against imported CO and the HO distillate. Last week's split of loyalties to the US, against Iraq, has muddled the fundamental prospects of a quick solution. Optimum military timing indicates a go-to-war date is near. Soon, the energy markets will be liquidated of buyers and the NG market will begin its pullback, to (June contract) $4.429.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-17-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 4.71% and S&P 500 starts at 833.27)

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved down to the Plazaview forecast target of 4.606% and then, rebounded higher, moving exactly as forecast. Last week, the rate reached down to 4.603% and back up to 4.739%, closing +.04%, marginally higher for the week, at 4.71%. Note: Plazaview's forecast record of accuracy is extraordinary; advise your associates of this excellent service.

This week, the yield rate is due to test back down to at least a target of 4.617%. The rate is still in the long downtrend, begun in January of 2000 but it is now testing the lower end of its current range for a solid base to rally from. Note: The rate has moved steadily lower since January, 2000. Now, it is testing a potential low point of that trend. There is a good chance that the rate will test 4.617% and retest 4.603%. If those levels hold, another rebound will have potential to bounce the rate back up to eventual targets of 4.813%, 4.849%, 4.849% and 4.966%.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved higher and then, it collapsed in the last two days of the week. The Bond ranged between 112.2/32 and 109.19/32, closing lower, at 110.8/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond moved up and only tested the potential top of 112.4/32.

This week begins with the Bond still trending higher and near a potential top but the rising trend has not ended. The Bond has been in a long and sideways path, since the August of 1999 low, at 86.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction has drifted up and sideways. Now, it is testing a potential top of 112.4. Continued market turmoil is likely to result in range bound movement, retesting the 112.4 to 107.26 range of targets.

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 traded between 788.90 and 841.39, closing up for the week, at 833.27. All as forecast, the market fell, hitting the 804 level and rallied up, to the former target. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was down by (-43.29%). Note: Plazaview's consistent accuracy is unequaled; advise your associates of this excellent service.

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is near a third year anniversary of the down trending correction. The down trend, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended but it is now near a potential turning point of 804 (S&P 500). The market will continue to fail on rallies and move back down, to again test the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804. If that level holds, the potential to rebound, higher, will increase.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index rebounded, impressively. The DX moved in a range of 97.57 to 100.41, closing higher, at 99.99 for the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was at a good potential low, overdue for a rally and it hit the forecast, initial target of 99.13.

This week, the dollar index remains near the low end of its downward trending correction. The DX is likely to build a base before moving much higher and this will bring the DX back down to a target of 98.16. If that level holds, a rebound will eventually take the DX back up, toward 105 or 108. The DX has more potential to rebound and it is now showing good signs of moving out of its lows, as all viable markets unwind from an extreme move.

Last week, the Euro-Currency broke down, ranging from 1.1083 to 1.0692, closing lower, at 1.0742 by the end of last week. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC was due for a pullback and it hit the initial forecast target of 1.0887.

The EC begins this week, still holding near the top but well positioned to break further down from its prolonged advance. It may linger at this higher level but a pull back is now due. The recent price advance has pushed the limits of excess. Sustaining the advance is limited to waiting for the start of a correcting, downward move. The EC will move lower, initially to 1.03. More targets of $.9906 and $.9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price dropped last week, as forecast. It traded in a range of $34.90 to $31.30, closing -$2.47 lower, at $31.96. As forecast in Plazaview, the market is very overextended and due for initial liquidation. It hit the Plazaview forecast target of $32.11.

This week, CO's (June) price is in the initial top forming stage. Last week's selling is the start but a rebound, which will come before the final top is in place. Eventually, a pull-back will move the market down, to $29.60 and $26.47 targets. Eventually CO-(June) will go down to $25.67 and $23.99. But, a top price is not yet in place.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price dropped last week, as forecast. HU-M traded between $1.107 and $.992, closing down, at $1.0098. As forecast in Plazaview, the market moved down to the targets of $1.0339 and $.9919.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) begins in the early stage of the Plazaview forecast correction. Gasoline is overdue for liquidation. A pullback will come but first, the market may retest the upper level of $1.1067. But that will quickly end and take the market down, to targets of $.9919, $.9558, $.9205, and lower, possibly to $.7479. Potential to rally and hold the current advance is supported by the immediate developments between the US and Iraq but limited by the need to correct the imbalance of buyers.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price dropped down, last week. It traded from $.924 to $.82, closing lower, at $.843. The market hit Plazaview targets at $.8927, $.8799, and $.8628.

This week, the HO market price is in the initial, top forming stage. A further pullback is pending but another test of the $.9215 may occur before greater selling takes place. Lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.7887, $.6955 and $.6336; more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit. The turn, down, is developing.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price moved lower, last week, as forecast. It ranged from $6.01 to $5.11 and closed down, at $5.354. As forecast, this market and the entire energy sector is overbought, held aloft by daily news of impending Middle-East conflict.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand is declining but the impending Middle-East conflict sustains buyers of NG, as a hedge against the imported CO and HO distillate. Last week's continued split of diplomatic loyalties to the US, against Iraq, has muddled the prospects of a solution. Optimum military timing indicates go or no go to war within two weeks. Regardless, the price of NG-June has not yet found the top price and a brief retest of $6.05 is likely. After the retest of the top price, the energy markets will liquidate and the NG market will begin its pullback, to (June contract) targets of $4.429 or $3.461.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-24-2003
(Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond begins at 5.03% and S&P 500 starts at 895.89)
The long anticipated allied war to remove Iraq's leadership, was initiated last week.

Last week, the yield rate of the 30 year Bond moved up to the Plazaview forecast targets of 4.813%, 4.849%, 4.849% and 4.966%. The week's range moved down to 4.664% and up to 5.043%, closing higher for the week, at 5.03%. The war with Iraq encouraged market players to sell Bonds and buy stocks.

This week, the yield rate is elevated by reaction to the Iraq war. Any further advance will be on borrowed time as the rate is due for a turn, back down, to 4.854% and 4.617%. The rate is still in the long downtrend, begun in January of 2000. There is a good chance that the rate will soon return to 4.617% and possibly retest 4.603%. Over time, if those lows hold, another rebound will result, with potential to lift the rate with gradual sustained progress, higher.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved down, in a steady liquidation. The Bond ranged between 111.2/32 and 104.29/32, closing lower, at 104.29/32. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond had been testing a potential top of 112.4/32.

This week begins with the Bond testing the lower end of its range. It may take another week to turn things around, but the Bond will rally and the first target is 106.21/32. The Bond has been in a long, rising and sideways topping path, since the August of 1999 low, at 86.3 and the January, 2001 high of 113.30. Since November of 2002, the current direction has drifted up and sideways. Now, it has dropped from a potential top of 112.29/32 and may find a mid-range base around 105.
Last week, the U.S. stock market rallied on the news of commenced war with Iraq. The S&P 500 traded between 827.17 and 895.89, closing up for the week, at 895.89. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end close of 1469.25, the S&P 500 was down by (-39.02%).

This week, the U.S. stock market's long term trend continues to be up but the immediate trend is in and at its third year anniversary of the down trending correction. The down trend, begun in March of 2000, has not yet ended but it is now near a potential turning point of 804 (S&P 500). The rally of last week has too soon, spirited the market higher. It will run its course of exuberance but eventually, resume failing on rallies and move back down, to the forecast target of (S&P 500) 804. If that 804 level holds, a sustained rebound will have good potential.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index rebounded for a second week. The DX moved in a range of 97.23 to 102.15, closing higher, at 101.92 for the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the dollar was at a good potential low, due for a another, initial rally.

This week, the dollar index remains near the low end of its long, downward trending correction. The DX is overdue for an advance but it will return to build a base before sustaining an advance. Eventually, that will bring the DX back down to a target of 98.16. If that lower level holds, a rebound will eventually take the DX back up, toward 105 or 108. The DX has good potential to rebound and it is now showing signs of moving out of its lows.

Last week, the Euro-Currency broke down for a second week, ranging from 1.0843 to 1.0504, closing lower, at 1.052, last week. As forecast in Plazaview, EC was due for another pullback.

The EC begins this week, still near the top of its range but well positioned to break further down from its prolonged advance. It may linger at this upper level but a pull back is overdue. The months of price advance, has pushed the limits of excess. Sustaining the advance is limited to waiting for the start of a sustained, downward move. The EC will move lower, initially to 1.03. More targets of $.9906 and $.9313 are distant and early forecasted objectives.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-M) June price dropped sharply, last week. It traded in a range of $33.40 to $25.75, closing -$5.78 lower, at $26.18. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was overextended and due for liquidation. It hit the Plazaview forecast targets of $29.60, $26.47, and $25.67.

This week, CO's (June) price has made the expected correction from its overextended advance. Last week's selling nearly completed the correction but lower targets are in sight at $25.67, $23.99 and $21.58. But, a top and bottom price are not yet in place and the market will oscillate in range bound movement as the Middle East war's effects are revealed to news wary traders.

The (NY-HU-M) June gasoline price dropped sharply, last week. HU-M traded between $1.0325 and $.8225, closing down, at $.8297. As forecast in Plazaview, the market moved down, to the targets of $.9919, $.9558 and $.9215.

This week, gasoline for June delivery (HU-M) has already moved down, correcting most of its excessive advance. The market could turn higher on a rebound from last week's close but lower targets await the market, at $.7977 and $.7479. The Allies versus Iraq war had a good start last week but any developing complications will send prices back up, again.

The (NY-HO-M) June heating oil price dropped sharply, last week. It traded from $.8525 to $.68, closing lower, at $.6845. The market hit the Plazaview, initial targets at $.7887 and $.6955 .

This week, the HO market price has made its initial correction and completed most of it. A further pullback is possible. Lower (June) price targets are waiting at $.6336 and more distant but eventually, $.5883 may be hit.

The (NY-NG-M) June natural gas price moved lower, last week. It ranged from $5.43 to $5.10 and closed down, at $5.128. As forecast, the energy sector was overbought but NG-June did not collapse to the extent that the others declined. The long anticipated conflict was initiated by allied forces' initially successful raid of Iraq and the markets liquidated on the news.

This week, as with HO, HU and CO, the allied war against Iraq's leadership is inspiring market direction . The NG-June has corrected most of its upside excess in last week's selling action. Selling is not complete, lower targets remain at $4.429 and potentially lower, at $3.461.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

As proven in these records, Plazaview is the consistently accurate resource for financial market forecasts.