Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 1st Qtr. of 2004

 

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-5-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved higher and the 30-year T-bond moved higher. The T-note closed up, at 4.373% and the T-bond closed up, at 5.176%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate would be in a temporary rise.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are still in a temporary rise, contrasted by the primarily descending trend. However, the current upward retracement of the recent decline, is nearing completion. Potentially after this week, the rate will reverse direction and resume its primary direction, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early in Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly progressing, downward.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower for the week, at $84.02. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it was due for a decline, toward $83.80.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it is backing-down, to about $83.80 in the immediate time-frame, it is also likely to retain its current range.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower for the week, at $84.44. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising but now in a short term decline.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. However, short term, it is still retracing downward, moving closer to around $83.25.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved lower, closing down by -3 points, at 107-29/32. The Plazaview forecast was for the primarily upward direction to enter a period of short term selling. Last week's decline was the result.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is in a gradual ascent and short-term selling, begun last week, is still in progress.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ moved above $36., and closed higher for the week, at $36.36. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has reached the end of the March ‘03 rally and upward potential is currently limited to about $36.

This week, the QQQ is holding at the top of the March ‘03 rise but increasingly in a sideways pattern. The market is in an advancing cycle but its potential is currently limited, to around $36. The QQQ is stretching the end of its March ‘03 rally. Gradually lower targets, as well as potential rebounding rallies, are at $34.25 and $33.00; eventually, it may reach down to $23.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up, at 109.48.

This week Gold/Silver is still in a short-term rebound. Since its 112.29 top level of December 2, 2003, the index has turned down and the primary direction is lower. After the current rebound ends, these precious metals will continue moving in the primary direction, lower.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-12-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved lower and the 30-year T-bond moved lower. The T-note closed down, at 4.086% and the T-bond closed down, at 4.967%. As forecast in Plazaview, the rate would complete its temporary rise and resume its primary direction, downward.

This week, will continue to see the yield rates of the T-note and the T-bond move in a sideways direction, as during the past three months. The primary direction has been down, since January of 2000. However, the rate has paused in consolidation of recent declines and remains in the three month range until a break-out will resume its primary destination, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early, in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly progressing, downward.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed +$1.75 higher for the week, at $85.77. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it has been contained by a range of sideways movement. As of last week's close, it is not at a top but a pull-back can be expected. A pull-back within the range would move lower, toward targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and 82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$2.51 higher for the week, at $86.95. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. However, short term, it is still consolidating in a range-bound, sideways movement of the past three months. As of last week's close, there is additional upward potential but a pull-back is likely, with lower range targets of $85.46, 84.22, 83.44 and 82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) reversed direction, moved higher, closing up by +3.6/32 points, at 111-9/32. The Plazaview forecast was for a primarily rising direction with a short term, downward retracement expected. Instead, the market rallied on statistical reports of weaker than expected economic development with the USA.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is in a gradual ascent and short-term selling, begun last week, is a part of the process. This week may bring some moderate selling as also indicated in the TLT.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ moved held above the $36.00 level, and closed higher for the week, at $37.73. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has advanced since March ‘03 and upward potential was currently limited to around $36.

This week, the QQQ is holding at the top of the March ‘03 rise but increasingly in a sideways pattern. Now that the market has exceeded $36.00, it has higher potential but a pull-back will come. Lower short-term targets are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. Eventually, the market may trade back down to $24.23 but that is now unlikely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up by +$1.06, at 110.54.

This week Gold/Silver is still in a short-term rebound. Since its 112.29 top level of December 2, 2003, the index has turned down and primarily sideways. Since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Short term, lower levels or more consolidation is likely, rather than a continuation of that steep incline. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-19-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the yield rate of the 10-year T-note moved lower and the 30-year T-bond moved lower. The T-note closed down, at 4.014% and the T-bond closed down, at 4.878%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week, will continue to see the yield rates of the T-note and the T-bond move in a sideways direction, as during the past three months. This week is likely to begin a minor rise. The primary direction has been down, since January of 2000. The rate has paused in a sideways consolidation and remains in its three month range, until a break-out, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early, in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly progressing, downward.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed +$.32 higher for the week, at $85.77. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it has been contained in a range of sideways movement. It is not now at a top but a pull-back can be expected. A pull-back within the range would move lower, toward targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$.66 higher for the week, at $86.95. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. While rising, it is still consolidating in a sideways movement of the past three months. As of last week's close, there is potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved higher, closing up by +1.9/32 points, at 112-18/32. The market continued its rise, encouraged by statistical reports of declining unemployment within the USA.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is in a gradual ascent and short-term selling, is an expected part of that process. This week should bring moderate, interim selling.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level, and it closed higher for the week, at $38.57. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established a new upper range, above $36.00.

This week, the QQQ begins at the top of the December ‘03 break-out of the March 2000 decline. This current rise and break-out is a positive development and there is higher potential but a temporary pull-back will come. Lower short-term targets are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. Eventually, in greater correction, the market may trade back down to $24.23 but that is now unlikely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed down by -12.02, at 98.52. As forecast in Plazaview, lower levels or more consolidation was likely.

This week Gold/Silver is in a correcting, steep rising trend. Since its 112.29 top level of December 2, 2003, the index has corrected down and primarily sideways. Since July of 2003, the market has been in an increasingly unsustainable, steep rise. Short term, potential to rally is redeveloping but a continuation of that steep incline is unsustainable. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 1-26-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market forecast: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate turned and closed up, at 4.066% and the T-bond yield rate closed up, at 4.940%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but last week was expected to see the beginning of a minor rise.

This week, will continue to see the yield rates of the T-note and the T-bond move in a sideways direction, as during the past three months. This week is likely to continue an interim and minor rise. The primary direction has been down, since January of 2000. The rate is paused in a sideways consolidation and remains in its over-three month range, until a break-out, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early, in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly progressing, downward.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed only +$.14 higher for the week, at $85.91. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range and a pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it has been contained in a range of sideways movement. It is not now at a temporary top and a minor pull-back is expected. A pull-back within the range would move lower, toward targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$.44 higher for the week, at $87.39. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising but a pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. While rising, it is still consolidating in a sideways movement of the past three months. As of last week's close, there is potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) moved lower, closing down by –23/32 points, at 111-27/32. The market declined as forecast in Plazaview.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is in a gradual ascent and short-term selling, is an expected part of that process. This week bring a potential to rally up to due to the rising trend but interim selling pressure is likely to be the end result.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level but it closed -$.53 lower for the week, at $38.04. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established an upper range, above $36.00 but near term, a temporary pull-back is due, as was the result.

This week, the QQQ begins near the top of the December ‘03 break-out, from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and upward trend is all positive and there is higher potential but a temporary pull-back will come. Lower short-term targets are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. Eventually, a deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed down by -.73, at 97.79. As forecast in Plazaview, lower levels or more consolidation was likely, due to the recent, steep rise.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a steeply rising trend. The uptrend began in November of 2000, at the XAU index of 42.86. Since July of 2003, the market has been in an increasingly unsustainable, steep rise. Since the December 2, 2003, top of 112.29, the index has corrected down and sideways. Short term, potential to rally is redeveloping but a continuation of that steep incline is unsustainable. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend but buyers should be cautious at this time.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-2-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate continued its rise, closing up, at 4.138%; the T-bond yield rate closed up, at 4.965%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but last week was expected to continue in a minor rise.

This week, will continue to see the yield rates of the T-note and the T-bond move in a sideways direction, as during the past three months. This week is likely to continue in a third week, interim and minor rise. The primary direction has been down, since January of 2000. The rate is paused in a sideways consolidation and remains in its over-three month range, until a break-out, toward the low point of June 13. As forecast early, in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed -$.35 lower for the week, at $85.56. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range and a minor pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it has been contained in a range of sideways movement. It is not now at a temporary top and a continuation of the minor pull-back is expected. A pull-back within the range would move toward lower targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed -$.35 lower for the week, at $87.04. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising but a pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. While rising, it is still consolidating in a sideways movement of the past three months. As of last week's close, there is potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $86.44, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) contiunued to move lower, closing down by –16/32 points, at 111-11/32. The market declined as forecast in Plazaview.

The T-bond is primarily rising, toward June's upper level. But it is in a gradual ascent and short-term selling, is an expected part of that process. This week brings a potential to rally, due to the rising trend but interim selling pressure is still likely to be the final result.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level but also continued a correction, downward. It closed -$.97 lower for the week, at $37.07. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established an upper range, above $36.00 but near term, a temporary pull-back is in play, as was the result.

This week, the QQQ begins near the top of the December ‘03 break-out, from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and an upward trend which began in October of 2002, is all positive and there is higher potential but a temporary pull-back will come. Lower short-term targets are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. Eventually, a deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed down by -2.21, at 95.58. As forecast in Plazaview, lower levels or more consolidation was likely, due to the recent, steep rise.

This week Gold/Silver remains in its steeply rising trend. The uptrend began in November of 2000, at the XAU index of 42.86. Since July of 2003, the market has been in an increasingly unsustainable, steep rise. Since the December 2, 2003, top of 112.29, the index has corrected down and sideways. Short term, nearest downward target is 94.05, with potential to rebound, up to 105.79. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend but buyers should be cautious at this time.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-9-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate resumed its decline, closing down, at 4.089%; the T-bond yield rate also closed down, at 4.93%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week continues the yield rates of the T-note and the T-bond in a sideways direction. This week may be affected by the Treasury sale of debt, an interim and minor rise is also in progress. The primary direction has been, since January of 2000, and still is moving down. As forecast in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed +$.04 higher for the week, at $85.61. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range and a minor pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it has been contained in a range of sideways movement. It is now in a temporary and minor pull-back correction. A pull-back within the range would move toward lower targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$.32 higher for the week, at $87.36. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising but a potential pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, to a minimum target of $96. While rising, it is still consolidating in a sideways movement of the past three months. As of last week's close, there is potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $86.44, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) resumed its rising trend, closing up by +26/32 points, at 112-5/32. The market remained inside the prior week's range due to the conflict of expected selling pressure but its potential to rally was as forecast in Plazaview.

The T-bond is in primarily rising trend, toward June's upper level. But it is in a gradual ascent and short-term selling, is an expected part of that process. Due to the rising trend, this week brings an overall potential to rally but interim selling pressure is still likely to be the final result.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level. Despite an ongoing correction, it managed to show a small gain by the end of the week. The QQQ closed +$.06 lower for the week, at $37.13. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established an upper range, above $36.00 but near term, a temporary pull-back is in play.

This week, the QQQ begins near the top of the December ‘03 break-out, from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and an upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is all positive. There is upward potential, established on February 5, at $36.47. A temporary pull-back is currently delayed. Lower short-term targets are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. Eventually, a deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up by +5.32, at 100.90. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a steeply rising trend. The primary uptrend began in November of 2000, at the XAU index of 42.86 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in a unsustainable, steep rise. Since the December 2, 2003, top of 112.29, the index has corrected down and moved sideways. Short term, nearest downward target is 94.05, with potential to rebound, up to 105.79. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend but buyers should be cautious at this time.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-16-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate continued in its primarily declining trend, closing down, at 4.048%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing down for the week, at 4.922%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week continues the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, an interim and minor rise is also in progress, resulting in sideways movement. The primary trend has been, since January of 2000, and still is moving down. As forecast in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, possibly returning to the lows of June 2003.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed +$.58 higher for the week, at $86.19. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range and a minor pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, since the initial rise it remains contained in a range of sideways, gradually rising movement. It is currently ready for a temporary and minor pull-back correction. A pull-back within the range would move toward lower targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$.36 higher for the week, at $87.72. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising but a potential pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. While rising, it continues to move gradually sideways. As of last week's close, there is potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $86.44, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (March futures) continued its primarily rising trend, closing up by +17/32 points, at 112-22/32. The market was forecast to rally and it rose closer to the recent (1-22-04) high of 113-2/32.

The T-bond is in primarily rising trend, toward June's upper level. It is in a gradual ascent but short-term selling is an expected part of that process. Due to the rising trend, this week brings potential to continue upward with caution.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level. The QQQ closed -$.15 lower for the week, at $36.98. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established an upper range, above $36.00 but near term, a temporary pull-back is in play.

This week, the QQQ is still in a rising trend and breakout from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and an upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is positive for the future. However, the S&P 500 is still under the negative ceiling of its March 2000 declining trend. The QQQ has upward potential, but a downward correction seems delayed and inevitable. Lower short-term targets are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. Eventually, a deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up by +1.26, at 102.16. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a steeply rising trend. The primary uptrend began in November of 2000, at the XAU index of 42.86 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in a unsustainably steep rise. Since the December 2, 2003, top of 112.29, the index has corrected down and moved sideways. Short term, nearest downward target is 94.05, with potential to rebound, up to 105.79. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend but buyers should be cautious at this time.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 2-23-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate interrupted its primarily declining trend, closing modestly up, at 4.098%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing up for the week, at 4.953%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but an interim and minor rise was expected.

This week continues the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, an interim and minor rise is also in progress, resulting in sideways movement. The primary trend has been, since January of 2000, and still is moving down. As forecast in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, possibly returning to the lows of June 2003.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed -$.25 lower for the week, at $85.94. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising but in the short term, it is moving in a sideways range and a minor pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, since the initial rise it remains contained in a range of sideways, gradually rising movement. Since January 22, it is currently in a temporary and minor pull-back correction. A pull-back within the range would move toward lower targets of $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed -$.38 lower for the week, at $87.34. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising but a potential pull-back was expected.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. While rising, it continues to move gradually sideways. As of last week's close, there is potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $86.44, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) continued its primarily rising trend, but closed lower, at 110-27/32. The market was forecast to have short-term selling.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. It is in a gradual ascent but more short-term selling is expected. Lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level. But, the QQQ closed -$.12 lower for the week, at $36.86. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established an upper range, above $36.00 but near term, a temporary pull-back is in play.

This week, the QQQ is still in a rising trend, a break-out from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and an upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is positive for the future and the QQQ has upward potential for this week. However, the S&P 500 is still within the negative ceiling of its March 2000, declining trend. Lower, short-term targets for the QQQ are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. A deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed down by -4.61 at 97.55. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a steeply rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in a one-year period Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in a unsustainable, steep rise. A correction is in progress and the nearest downward targets are 96.23 and 94.05. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend but buyers should be cautious at this time.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-1-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate resumed its primarily declining trend, closing down, at 3.984%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing down for the week, at 4.857%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week continues the yield rate direction of the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. The rate is moving slowly, sometimes sideways. The primary trend has been down, since January of 2000. As forecast in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, potentially returning to the lows of June 2003.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed +$.74 higher for the week, at $86.68. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it is currently testing and slightly exceeding a recent correction top, delaying a minor correction. A pull-back would move back to lower targets of $86.34, $85.09, $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$1.32 higher for the week, at $88.66. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. As of last week's close, the market is currently testing and exceeding an interim top at 88.23. There is good potential for a minor pull-back, to lower range targets of $87.90, $86.43, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) continued its primarily rising trend and it closed +1-19/32 higher, at 112-14/32. The market was forecast to have short-term selling but this did not last, the primary trend resumed.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. It is in a gradual ascent but more short-term selling is overdue. Now more distant, lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level. But, the QQQ closed -$.29, lower again for the week, at $36.57. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ has established an upper range, above $36.00 but near term, a temporary pull-back is in play.

This week, the QQQ is still in a rising trend, a break-out from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and an upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is positive for the future and the QQQ has upward potential for this week. However, the S&P 500 is still within the negative ceiling of its March 2000, declining trend. Lower, short-term targets for the QQQ are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. A deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend. This week has good potential to resume the rally and move higher.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up by +2.25 at 99.80. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a steeply rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in a one-year period Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in a unsustainable, steep rise. A correction is in progress and the nearest downward targets are 96.23 and 94.05. Longer term, these precious metals are in a rising trend but the precious metals are in a correction phase at this time and rallies are likely to fail.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-8-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate continued its primarily declining trend, closing down, at 3.831%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing down for the week, at 4.745%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, the rate dropped too much last week and a rebound is an expected result for this week. The primary trend has been down, since January of 2000. As forecast in the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, potentially returning to the lows of June 2003.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed +$.60 higher for the week, at $87.28. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it is currently due for a minor correction. A pull-back would move back to lower targets of $86.34, $85.09, $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed +$.98 higher for the week, at $89.64. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. However, this week, the market has good potential for a minor pull-back, to lower range targets of $87.94, $86.43, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) continued its primarily rising trend and it closed +1-25/32 higher, at 114-7/32. The market continued its primary, upward trend.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. But, it is also due for the correction of short-term selling. Distant, lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ continued to hold above the $36.00 level. The QQQ closed only +$.06 higher for the week, at $36.63. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ had good potential to move higher but that was only marginally proven.

This week, the QQQ is still in a rising trend, a break-out rally from the March 2000 decline. This break-out and an upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is positive for the future. However, the S&P 500 is still within the negative ceiling of its March 2000, declining trend. Lower, short-term targets for the QQQ are at $36.36, 35.85, 34.88 and 33.26. A deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend. This week, the QQQ could drift lower, as it has since January. So far, only a potential base has been building, to rally out of the January downtrend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up by +2.18, at 101.98. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. A correction is in progress but these markets are more likely to move sideways for a while.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-15-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate continued its primarily declining trend, edging lower, to close down, at 3.76%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing lower for the week, at 4.71%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, in week prior to last, the rate dropped too much and a rebound is due. The primary trend has been down, since January of 2000. As forecast to go lower, since the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have declined since the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13, 2000. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, a now probable return to the lows of June 2003.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed higher for the week, at $87.83. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, it is currently due for a minor correction. A pull-back would move back to lower targets of $86.21, $85.09, $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed higher for the week, at $90.25. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. However, this week, the market has good potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $87.94, $86.43, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) continued its primarily rising trend and it closed +16/32 higher, at 114-30/32. The market continued its primary, upward trend.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. But, it is also due for the correction of short-term selling. Distant, lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ fell below the $36.00 level and marginally out of the upward trend. The QQQ closed lower for the week, at $35.52. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ had good potential to move higher but that was only marginally proven.

This week, the QQQ is marginally out of its rising trend, a break-out rally from the March 2000 decline. That break-out and upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is positive for the future. However, the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. Lower, short-term targets for the QQQ are at 34.88 and 33.26. A deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant and less likely in the current, rising trend. This week, the QQQ could attempt a rally but that is likely to fail. The market is primarily drifting lower, as it has since January. So far, only a potential base has been building, to rally out of the January downtrend.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed down, at 98.53. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress but these markets are more likely to move downward and sideways for a while.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-22-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate continued its primarily declining trend but it closed slightly up, at 3.788%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing slightly up for the week, at 4.719%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, recently, the rate dropped too quickly and a rebound is due. The primary trend has been down, since January of 2000. As has been forecast since the August issues of Plazaview, yield rates have progressively declined from when the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13, 2000. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, to a now probable return of the June 2003 lows.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed nearly unchanged, $.02 higher for the week, at $87.85. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-note fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as previously forecast, it is currently due for a minor correction. A pull-back would move it to lower targets of $86.21, $85.09, $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed higher for the week, at $90.43. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund is primarily rising, in a gradual advance.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. However, as previously forecast, the market has good potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $87.94, $86.43, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) paused in its primarily rising trend and closed -1/32 lower, at 114-29/32.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. But, it is also due for a temporary correction of short-term selling. Distant, lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ remained below the $36.00 level and out of its prior upward trend. The QQQ closed lower for the week, at $34.75. As forecast in Plazaview, the QQQ hit the $34.88, first downward target.

This week, the QQQ is marginally out of its rising trend, a break-out rally from the March 2000 decline. That break-out and upward trend, begun in October of 2002, is positive for the future. However, the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. Lower, short-term target for the QQQ is at 33.26. A deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant. This week, the QQQ could attempt a rally but that is likely to fail. The market is primarily drifting lower, as it has since January.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up, at 101.43. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to move downward and sideways for a while.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 3-29-2004

Record of consistently accurate forecasts library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index: XAU

By the end of last week, the T-note yield rate closed higher, at 3.843%. The T-bond yield rate did the same, closing higher for the week, at 4.77%. As forecast in Plazaview, the primary direction is downward but a interim rebound was expected.

This week continues the yield rate for the T-note and the T-bond in a primarily falling trend. But, the rates have recently dropped too much and a continued rebound is expected. The primary trend has been down, since January of 2000. As forecast in Plazaview since August of 2003, yield rates have progressively declined from when the T-note was at 4.601% on September 3, and since the T-bond was at 5.448% on August 13, 2000. The rate is slowly continuing, in a downward trend, to return near the June 2003 lows.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed lower for the week, at $87.57. As forecast in Plazaview, a minor correction for the T-note fund was expected.

This week begins with the IEF (T-note fund) primarily but gradually, since September of 2003, ascending, to a minimum target of $89. However, as previously forecast, it is currently due for a minor correction. A pull-back would move it to lower targets of $86.21, $85.41, $84.77, 83.95, 82.89 and less likely, $82.36.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed lower for the week, at $89.78. As forecast in Plazaview, the T-bond fund was expected to pull-back, to lower targets.

This week begins with the TLT, (T-bond fund) primarily ascending, as it has since August of 2003, to a minimum target of $96. However, as previously forecast, the market has good potential for a pull-back, to lower range targets of $87.94, $86.43, $85.46, 84.22, and 83.44; possible, but less likely is $82.90.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (June futures) paused in its primarily rising trend and closed -25/32 lower, at 114-4/32. As forecast in Plazaview, short-term selling was expected.

This week, the (June) T-bond is primarily in a rising trend, toward June's upper level. But, it is also due for a temporary correction of short-term selling. This correction may have begun last week. Distant, lower targets are at 106-14/32 and 104-7/32.

By the end of last week, the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ, QQQ remained below the $36.00 level and out of its prior upward trend. The QQQ closed higher for the week, at $35.22. As forecast in Plazaview, a minor rise was expected.

This week, the QQQ is out of its rising trend and the market is primarily drifting lower, as it has since January. Since October of 2002, that has been a new rising trend, a break-out from the March 2000 decline and positive for the future. However, the S&P 500 is still within the negative influence of its March 2000, declining trend. The first, short-term target for the QQQ is lower, at 33.26. A deeper correction could bring the market back down to $24.23 but that is now distant.

By the end of last week, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (XAU) closed up, at 102.54. As forecast in Plazaview, the metals are in a rising trend, although, unsustainably steep and due for correction.

This week Gold/Silver remains in a long term, rising trend. The primary uptrend was established in the one-year period of Nov. 2000 - Nov. ‘01 and that remains in effect. However, since July of 2003, the market has been in an unsustainable, steep rise. Since January 2004, a downward correction has been in progress and these metals are likely to move downward and sideways for a while.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Copyrights notice: All rights reserved. All content of the Plazaview.com forecast is copyright protected, not available for reprint, redistribution or resale without permission of Plazaview.com.

PLAZAVIEW.COM PROVIDES NO INVESTMENT ADVICE NOR OPINION.