Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 2nd Qtr. of 2002

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-1-2002 (S&P starts at 1147.39)

Last week the U.S. stock markets remained unable to sustain an advance. The S&P ranged between 1154.45 and 1131.61, closing slightly lower for the week, at 1147.39. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly, closing down for the week, at 10403.94. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)21.91%. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended mostly sideways for nineteen weeks.

This week the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is neutral. The stock market begins this week's trading with an ongoing potential to rally, except for the great impediment of still unfinished trading at lower levels. While there is potential for higher levels, the advance which began at the end of last September, is currently unsustainable and the market will back down to retrace some, if not all, of those gains. The nearest, lower target area is (S & P 500) 1089.84 and this will be revisited before an upward advance is sustainable; 965.8 is a deeper potential risk to the current advance.

Last week, the (June) T-bond remained narrowly within the prior week's range. It closed nearly unchanged for the week but it did establish a comparatively higher low for the week. The (June) Bond moved in a range between 99.10/32 and 97.18/32, to close up (+1/32), at 98.5/32. This week, the Bond is ready to try again for a bounce higher on an initial rally. The potential / eventual drop of the stock market will bring buyers back to the Bond market. Uncertain investors remain cautious, alternating between stock market sectors and the Bond market areas. The Bond is ready to rally but this will be only an initial rise.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond continued to move (slightly) higher (+0.00010) last week. The yield rate was limited in range but closed up, at 5.815% last week. This week, the rate is still likely to decrease as the Bond is due to rally. These recent increases are an initial advance. The rate will sink back down again as soon as the stock market retraces its September to December gains.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved slightly higher, to close up (+0.57) at 118.57. The Dollar has been in a long, top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading in the area of its top range. This week begins with the Dollar near its recent top level. It has some limited potential to move back up, in the direction of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction trend. Only fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. However, crude oil is likely to retreat soon and this will tend to push down the Dollar. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved higher, last week. The CRB finished (+1.36) last week at 204.92, largely due to continued energy price increases. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. This market has recently reversed direction and it is currently in an initial breakout of a fourteen-month-old down trend. This week, the market is overdue for a return to lower levels, in the direction of CRB 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June) market price held its recent gains and extended slightly higher, last week. It remained in a limited range ($25.10 to $26.45) for the week and the (June) CO closed (+$0.88) higher, at $26.37. This week, CO remains highly vulnerable to selling. The immediate lower (June) targets are at $24.22 and $22.71.

The NY (June) gasoline market price extended its advance last week, trading in a range of ($.79 to $.832). The (June) HU closed (+$.0268) higher, at $.8285. This week, HU's price is extended and highly vulnerability to sellers. Sellers will soon push down this rising market. HU (June) has a nearby, lower target at $.7723. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price extended its advance last week, into a range of ($.643 to $.679). The (June) HO closed (+$.0196) higher, at $.6753. This week, the recent advance is more attractive to sellers. HO will soon move back down to (June HO) targets of $.6246, $.62 and a more distant, potential target of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market failed to extend its recent advance and in opposition to the other energy markets, last week, the price moved down, into a range of $3.51 to $3.20. The June - NG closed (-$.077) lower, last week, at $3.309. This week, NG is still vulnerable to sellers. Sellers may next take the price back down to targets of $3.144, $2.479 and $2.308. There is some potential for a brief rally, to an upper target at $3.656 but this is not a sustainable level.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-8-2002 (S&P starts at 1122.73)

Last week the U.S. stock markets resumed the downward trend as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P ranged between 1147.84 and 1119.49, closing lower for the week, at 1122.73. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly, closing down for the week, at 10271.64. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)23.58%. After a rally from the late September lows, ended in November / December, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have trended mostly sideways for twenty weeks.

This week the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is neutral but returning to down. The stock market begins this week's trading with an underlying potential to rally, except for the obstacle of still unfinished trading at lower levels. While there is potential for a rally, the advance, which began at the end of last September, is currently unsustainable and the market will back down to retrace some, if not all, of those gains. The nearest lower target area is (S & P 500) 1089.84 and this will be revisited before an upward advance is sustainable; 965.8 is another potential target of risk to the current advance.

Last week, the (June) T-bond finally began its initial upward move, as was forecast in Plazaview. The (June) Bond moved in a range between 97.27/32 and 100.25/32, to close up (+2.14/32), at 100.19/32. This week, the Bond has potential to advance further but this is an initial rally and the market will eventually fall back to retrace the current gains.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond fell back down (-.0015) last week. The yield rate was limited in range but closed down, at 5.666% last week. This week, the rate is still likely to decrease as the Bond has potential to rally. The recent increases are an initial advance. The rate will sink back down again as the stock market gradually retraces its September to December gains.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved lower, to close down (-0.83) at 117.74. The Dollar has been in a long, top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading in the area of its top range. This week begins with the Dollar still in the area of its recent top level. It has some limited potential to move back up, in the direction of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction trend. Fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. However, crude oil is likely to retreat soon and this will tend to pull down the Dollar. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved lower, last week. The CRB finished (-3.38) last week at 201.54. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. This market has recently reversed direction and it is currently in an initial breakout of a fourteen-month-old down trend. This week, the market is overdue for a return to lower levels, toward the direction of CRB 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June) market price attempted an extended advance but closed only slightly higher last week. It traded in a range of $25.20 to $27.86 for the week and the (June) CO closed +$0.04 higher, at $26.41. Current Mid-East conflict results in energy prices remaining elevated. This week, CO remains highly vulnerable to selling and ready to go down at the first sign of peace in the Mid-East. The immediate lower (June) targets are at $24.22 and $22.71.

The NY (June) gasoline market price attempted an extended advance but closed down last week. It traded in a range of $.787 to $.865. The (June) HU closed (-$.0092) lower, at $.8193. This week, HU's price is vulnerable to continued selling. Sellers will soon push down this rising market. HU (June) has a nearby, lower target at $.7723. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement to $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price extended its advance, last week, into a range of $.659 to $.7115. The (June) HO closed +$.0092 higher, at $.6845. This week, the market is attractive to sellers. HO will soon move back down to (June HO) targets of $.6246, $.62 and a more distant, potential target of $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market extended its recent advance, last week, into a range of $3.22 to $3.855. The (June) market hit the Plazaview forecast, upper target of $3.656. The advance was unsustainable as forecast in Plazaview and the June - NG closed only +$.004 higher, last week, at $3.309. This week, NG is vulnerable to sellers. Sellers may take the price back down to targets of $3.144, $2.479 and $2.308.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-15-2002 (S&P starts at 1111.01)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued the downward trend. The S&P ranged between 1131.76 and 1102.42, closing lower for the week, at 1111.01. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly, closing down for the week, at 10190.82. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)24.38%. The market indices are returning to lower levels as described in Plazaview, beginning with the10-15-2001 forecast.

This week the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is turning down. The stock market begins this week's trading with the underlying potential to rally, except for the still unfinished trading targets at lower levels. While there is some potential to rally, the advance, which began at the end of last September, is unsustainable and the market will move back down to retrace some, if not all, of those gains. The nearest lower target area, forecast in Plazaview, is (S & P 500) 1089.84. It is now much closer and this will be revisited before an upward advance is sustainable; 965.8 is another potential target of risk to the September rally.

Last week, the (June) T-bond extended its initial upward move, as was forecast in Plazaview. The (June) Bond moved in a range between 99.31/32 and 101.5/32, to close up (+12/32), at 100.31/32. This week, the Bond has potential to continue the advance higher but this is only the initial rally and the market will eventually fall back to retrace these current gains.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond decreased further (-.00018) last week. The yield rate was limited in range but closed down, at 5.648% last week. This week, the rate may be likely to decrease as the Bond still has potential to rally. The recent increases were an initial advance. The rate will sink back down again as the stock market gradually retraces its September to December gains.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index was moved slightly lower, to close down (-0.03) at 117.71. The Dollar has been in a long, top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading in the area of its top range. This week begins with the Dollar still in the area of its recent top level. It has some limited potential to move back up, to the target of 120.22. But, the Dollar is more overdue to fall into a downward correction trend. Fundamental weakness in alternative currencies holds the Dollar aloft. However, crude oil's price is likely to shrink, as it did last week, and this will tend to pull down the Dollar. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is overdue. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index continued to move lower, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The CRB finished (-6.27) last week at 195.27. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. This market has recently reversed direction and it is currently in an initial breakout of a fourteen-month-old down trend. This week, the market is overdue for a return to lower levels, toward the direction of CRB 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June) market price moved down sharply last week, hitting targeted levels and closing lower as forecast in Plazaview. CO (June) traded in a range of $26.85 to $23.55, hitting the forecast target of $24.22. The (June) CO closed (-$2.72) lower, at $23.69. Currently, the unresolved Mid-East conflict will provide volatility. This week, CO remains more vulnerable to selling. CO is primed to move lower on any indication of imminent peace in the Mid-East. The next lower (June) target is at $22.71. Unresolved military and political conflict may have an upward, reversal effect.

The NY (June) gasoline market price moved down last week and hit the Plazaview forecast target of $.7723. The (June) HU traded in a range of $.844 to $.728. The (June) HU closed (-$.0861) lower, at $.7332. This week, HU's price is still vulnerable to selling. Sellers will eventually push down this formerly rising market but a top price is not established and the last rally in this cycle has not yet occurred. HU (June) has nearby, upper targets at $.829, $.844, and $.8488. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement, lower, to $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price collapsed from its prior advance, last week, also hitting both targets of $.6246 and $.62 as forecast in Plazaview. The (June) HO ranged from $.696 to $.604. The (June) HO closed (-$.0792) lower, at $.6053. This week, the market is still vulnerable to sellers, however, the top price for the current cycle is not yet in place and a temporary reversal will move up to targets at $.6804, $.688, and $.7098. HO will then move back down to lower (June HO) targets, including a potential target at $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market collapsed last week, hitting the $3.144 (June NG) target, both as forecast in Plazaview. It traded in a range from $3.41 to $3.10 and (June) closed down at $3.163. This week, NG is still vulnerable to sellers, however, the top price is not established and a temporary rally will go to targets of $3.365 and $3.57. Sellers will eventually take the price back down to lower targets at $2.479 and $2.308.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-22-2002 (S&P starts at 1125.17)

Last week the U.S. stock markets drifted sideways, trading marginally below and above the prior week's range. The S&P ranged between 1133. and 1099.41, closing higher for the week, at 1125.17. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly, closing up for the week, at 10257.11. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)23.42%. The market indices are returning to prior lower levels as forecast in Plazaview, since10-15-2001.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is neutral. The stock market begins this week's trading with the underlying potential to rally, except for a bias of still unfinished trading targets at lower levels. While there is some potential to rally, the advance. which began at the end of last September, is unsustainable and the market will eventually move back down to retrace some, if not all, of those gains. The nearest and lower target area, forecast in Plazaview, is (S & P 500) 1089.84. That is now much closer and it will be revisited before an upward advance is sustainable; 965.8 is another potential target of risk to the September rally.

Last week, the (June) T-bond traded below and above the prior week's range. The (June) Bond moved in a range between 99.20/32 and 101.14/32, to close down (-13/32), at 100.18/32. This week, the Bond has potential to advance higher on a potential stock market decline but the Bond market will eventually fall back down to retrace the recent gains.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved back up last week. The yield rate was limited in range but closed higher, at 5.687% last week. This week, the rate remains in a drifting sideways pattern. There was an initial advance over the past five months. The rate will sink back down again as the U. S. stock market gradually retraces its September to December (2001) advance.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index continued to move slightly lower, to close down (-1.47) at 116.24. The Dollar has been in a long, top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading in the area of its top range. This week begins with the Dollar still trading in the area of its recent top level. It has some limited potential to move back up, to the target of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction trend. Fundamental weakness in alternative currencies and Middle East instability holds the Dollar aloft. The long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is delayed. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved back up, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The CRB finished (+5.60) last week at 200.88. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. This market rallied over the prior five months and has broken out of a fourteen-month-down trend. This week, the market is still trading in a holding pattern, waiting for drop in crude oil and overdue for a return to lower levels, toward the direction of CRB 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June) market price was moved back up last week by unresolved conflict in the Middle East, as forecast in Plazaview. CO (June) traded in a range of $24.67 to $26.55, closing (+$2.75) higher, at $26.44. This week, the unresolved Mid-East conflict remains and this uncertainty will produce up and down volatility. CO is primed to move lower on any indication of peace in the Mid-East, but first, an upper target awaits at $27.62. The lower (June) targets are at $25.45, $24.79, $23.69, and $22.71.

The NY (June) gasoline market price moved in a narrow range last week of $.778 to $.807 and closed (+$.0713) higher, at $.8045. This week, HU's potentially rising price is increasingly vulnerable to selling. However, this recently soaring market has not established its top price and the last rally in this cycle has not yet occurred. HU (June) has nearby, upper targets at $.829, $.844, and $.8488. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement, lower, to $.7781, $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June) heating oil market price moved in a narrow range last week of $.6347 to $.667 and closed (+$.0585) higher, at $.6638. This week, the HO market's potentially rising price is still vulnerable to sellers. However, the top price for the current cycle is not yet in place and a temporary reversal will move up to targets at $.6804, $.688, and $.7098. In time, HO will then move back down to lower (June HO) targets, including $.6352 and a potential target at $.52.

The NY (June) natural gas market price moved in a narrow range last week of $3.33 to $3.37 and closed (+$.399) higher, at $3.562. The market traded up to the Plazaview forecast target of $3.365. This week, the NG market's potentially rising price is still vulnerable to sellers. However, the top price for the current cycle is not yet established and a rally will go to a target of at least $3.57. In time, sellers will eventually take the price back down to lower targets at $3.163, $2.479 and $2.308.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 4-29-2002 (S&P starts at 1076.32)

Last week the U.S. stock markets traded mostly down and into the initial target area (S&P 500: 1089.84) as forecast (see: 3-11-2002) in Plazaview. The S&P ranged between 1122.68 and 1076.31, closing lower for the week, at 1076.32. The Dow Ind. 30 performed similarly, closing below the 10,000 level, at 9910.72. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)26.74%. The market indices are returning down to prior, lower levels as has been forecast in Plazaview, since10-15-2001.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is down. The stock market has resumed its potentially final, downward path in this correction cycle. This week's trading retains the underlying potential to rally, except for an also prominent bias of still unfinished trading targets at lower levels. While there is potential to rally, the advance which began at the end of last September, is currently unsustainable. The stock market will eventually move down to retrace some, if not all, of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target area is in the area of (S & P 500) 966.

Last week, the (June) T-bond traded higher, as forecast in Plazaview, above the prior week's range. The (June) Bond moved in a range between 100.15/32 and 102.10/32, to close up (+1.21/32), at 102.7/32. This week, the Bond still has potential to advance higher, based on a stock market decline, but these Bond market gains are not a sustainable trend. The Bond market will eventually drop back down to retrace the recent gains.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved down last week. The yield rate closed 10.2 basis points lower, at 5.585% last week. This week, the rate remains in a drifting, sideways pattern with good potential to eventually move lower. The initial advance, over the past five months, will sink back down again as the U. S. stock market gradually retraces its September to December (2001) advance.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index continued to move lower, closing down (-1.26) at 116.24. The Dollar has been in a long, top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading in the area of its top range. This week may show more volatility in the currencies as the major ones begin this week at potential turning points. The Dollar has some potential to move back up, to the target of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction. Fundamental weakness in alternative currencies and Middle East instability has held the Dollar aloft. The Dollar's long term trend is rising but a short term reversal is delayed. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a holding pattern as forecast in Plazaview. The CRB finished (-1.24) last week at 199.64. The CRB peaked in October of one year ago and then it trended lower. This market rallied over the prior five months and has broken out of a fourteen-month-down trend. But the recent increase is not yet sustainable. This week, the market is still trading in a holding pattern, waiting for drop in crude oil, due for a return to lower levels, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June-CO) market price moved in a tight pattern for most of last week and then rose on Friday. Unresolved conflict in the Middle East, continues to generate market volatility, as forecast in Plazaview. CO (June) traded in a narrow range of $26.01 to $27.15, closing (+$.67) higher, at $26.44. This week, the unresolved Mid-East conflict remains and this uncertainty will produce more up and down volatility. However, CO is primed to move lower and any indication of peace in the Mid-East will bring down this market. An upper target awaits at $27.62. The lower (June) targets are at $25.45, $24.79, $23.69, and $22.71.

The NY (June-HU) gasoline market price moved down last week, until it reversed on a rally, Friday. The HU (June) moved in a narrow range last week of $.783 to $.8175 and closed (+$.0107) higher, at $.8152. This week, HU's rising price becomes increasingly vulnerable to selling. This recently soaring market has not established its top price and the last rally in this cycle has not yet occurred. HU (June) has nearby, upper targets at $.829, $.844, and $.8488. Eventually, failure of the current rally will result in a retracement, lower, to $.7781, $.6501 and $.6312, with potential to hit the $.60 area.

The NY (June-HO) heating oil market price moved in a narrow range last week of $.6575 to $.683, hitting the Plazaview forecast target of $.6804. The (June - HO) closed (+$.0181) higher, at $.6819. This week, the HO market's potentially rising price is held aloft by Mid-East conflict. Beyond the conflict, a rally will become vulnerable to sellers. Meanwhile, the top price for the current cycle is not yet in place and a temporary advance can move up to targets at $.6845, $.688, and $.7098. In time, HO will then move back down to lower (June HO) targets, including $.6352 and a potential target at $.5236.

The NY (June-NG) natural gas market price moved in a wider, downward range last week of $3.245 to $3.665 and closed (-$.19) lower, at $3.372. As forecast, the market traded up to the Plazaview target of $3.57 and then it became vulnerable to sellers. This week, the NG market has not yet seen the top and a potentially rising price for the current cycle is at $3.65. In time, sellers will eventually take the price back down to lower targets at $3.163, $2.479 and $2.308.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-6-2002 (S&P starts at 1073.43)

Last week the U.S. stock markets traded in a narrow range and held its ground. The S&P ranged between 1091.42 and1063.46, closing slightly lower for the week, at 1073.43. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)26.94%. The market indices are in a process of returning down to prior, lower levels as forecast since10-15-2001, in Plazaview.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is down. The stock market is in a potentially final, downward path in this correction cycle. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally. But, the advance which began at the end of last September, is currently failing. The stock market will eventually move down to retrace some, if not all, of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is in the area of (S & P 500) 966.

Last week, the (June) T-bond traded higher as forecast in Plazaview, above the prior week's range. The (June) Bond moved in a range between 101.23/32 and 103.4/32, to close up, at 102.23/32. This week, the Bond has some potential to continue the advance, based on a stock market decline but the stock market will not go in a straight-down direction and the recent Bond market gains are not a sustainable trend. The Bond market will eventually drop back down to retrace its gains of the prior five weeks.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond moved down last week, closing lower, at 5.543%. This week, the rate remains in a drifting, sideways pattern with good potential to eventually move lower. The initial advance, over the past five months, will sink back down again as the U. S. stock market gradually retraces its September to December (2001) advance.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index continued to move lower, closing down (-2.71) at 113.53. The Dollar has been in a long, top forming pattern since early October of 2000. Lately, it has been trading lower but still within reach of its top range. This week the Dollar has some potential to move back up, to the target of 120.22. But, the Dollar is overdue to fall into a downward correction. Middle East instability and increased crude oil prices have held the Dollar aloft. The Dollar's long term trend is rising but a short term, downward reversal is impending. The nearest, lower target is at 111.38.

The relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a holding pattern but turned lower as forecast in Plazaview. The CRB finished (-.95) last week at 198.69. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. This market rallied during the prior five months and it has broken out of a fourteen-month-down trend. That recent increase is not yet sustainable. This week, the CRB is trading in a holding pattern, due for a return to lower levels, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June-CO) market price continued to move down last week but remained in a close range of the recent top. Unresolved conflict in the Middle East, continues to generate market volatility as forecast in Plazaview. CO (June) traded in a narrow range of $27.54 to $25.93, closing (+$.18) higher, at $26.62. This week, the Mid-East conflict remains but has possibly improved. This uncertainty will prolong the up and down volatility, however, CO is primed to move lower and an indication of peace in the Mid-East will bring down this market's price. Short term, upper targets await at $27.45 and $27.62. The lower (June) targets are at $25.45, $24.79, $23.69, and $22.71.

The NY (June-HU) gasoline market price moved up and down, last week, hitting the upper target of $.829 and moving back down as forecast in Plazaview. The HU (June) moved in a range of $.83 to $.774 and closed (-$.0275) lower, at $.7877. This week, HU's price may rally again but this will not hold as it remains vulnerable to selling at the recent top. The market has not established its top price and the last rally in this cycle has not yet occurred. HU (June) has nearby, upper targets at $.80, $.827, $.844, and $.8488. Failure of the current rally will result in a retracement, lower, to $.7781, with potential to hit the $.6501, $.6312 and $.60 areas.

The NY (June-HO) heating oil market price moved up and down, last week, hitting the upper targets of $.6845 and $.688 as forecast in Plazaview. The (June - HO) ranged from $.693 to $.653 and closed (-$.0166) lower, at $.6653. This week, the HO price is still held aloft by Mid-East conflict and the market has not yet set the top price in place and a temporary advance can move back up to targets at $.6784 and $.7098. In time, HO will move back down to lower (June HO) targets, including $.6352 and $.5236.

The NY (June-NG) natural gas market price moved up, last week, in a very narrow range of $3.792 to $3.55, hitting the upper target of $3.65 as forecast in Plazaview. The (June-NG) closed (+$.373) higher, at $3.745. This week, the NG market has good potential to fail on a rally. With more time, sellers will take the price down to $3.372, $3.163, $2.479 and $2.308.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-13-2002 (S&P starts at 1054.99)

Last week the U.S. stock markets resumed a currently, twenty-six month correction cycle and traded further down. The S&P closed lower for the week, at 1054.99. The Dow Industrials moved below 10,000., closing at 9939.92. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)28.2%. The market indices are in a process of returning to lower levels as forecast in Plazaview, since10-15-2001.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is down. The stock market is moving in a potentially final, downward path of a correction cycle which began in the first quarter of 2000. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the advance, which began at the end of last September, is currently failing. The stock market will eventually move down to retrace some, if not all, of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is in the area of (S&P 500) 966.

Last week, the (June) T-bond traded lower. The (June) Bond closed down, at 102.2/32. This week, the Bond may be inclined to resume moving downward as the recent gains are not sustainable. The Bond market will gradually drop back down to the lows of March.

Last week the U.S. dollar's cash index attempted to move higher but gave back most of its advance by the end of the week, closing up, at 113.92. The dollar remains in a long, sideways moving pattern which began in early October of 2000. Lately, it has been range bound, trading lower but within reach of its top. This week, the Dollar has some potential to move back up. After at least two more weeks of narrow ranged trading action, the dollar may begin to move back up, to the targets of 119.91 and 120.22. The nearest risk of a lower target is 111.38.

The Euro-Currency index floated within the prior week's range, last week, and closed slightly lower, at .91003. The EC is moving in an opposite direction from the Dollar. Both markets are now at a turning point but they are likely to linger for at least two more weeks, not now ready to make the move. This week, the EC will be contained in either up or down direction but with a downward bias.

The relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a holding pattern but turned up last week. The CRB finished (+2.82) last week at 201.51. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. The CRB rallied during the prior five months and it has broken out of the prior down trend but that recent increase is not yet sustainable. This week, the CRB remains stuck in a holding pattern, due for a return to lower levels, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-June-CO) market price moved higher last week, a continued response to the unresolved conflict in the Middle East. CO (June) traded up, hitting the Plazaview forecast targets of $27.45 and $27.62, to close (+$1.37) higher, at $27.99. This week, the Mid-East conflict remains an uncertain but fundamental driving force in the market. This uncertainty will prolong the up and down volatility but CO is technically vulnerable to a move lower on an indication of peace in the Mid-East. Lower (June) targets are at $25.45, $24.79, $23.69, and $22.71.

The NY (June-HU) gasoline market price was subdued last week by government inquiries to a suspicion of artificially increased prices. The market hit Plazaview's forecast lower target of $.7791 and with expected volatility, moved back up to close (+$.0028) at $.7905. This week, HU's price bias is up. It may rally again as this market has not established its top price. HU (June) has nearby, upper targets at $.80, $.827, $.844, and $.8488. Failure of the current rally will result in a retracement, back down to $.7781, with potential to hit the $.6501, $.6312 and $.60 areas.

The NY (June-HO) heating oil market price moved in the prior week's range, last week, hitting the upper target of $.6784, as forecast in Plazaview. The (June - HO) closed (+$.0239) higher, at $.6892. This week, the HO price is still held aloft by Mid-East conflict and the market has not yet set a current, top price. A potential, further advance will move HO (June) up to a target at $.7098. In time, with a better defined top price, HO will move back down to lower (June HO) targets, including $.6352 and $.5236.

The NY (June-NG) natural gas market price remained in a narrow range, last week, closing almost unchanged. The (June-NG) closed (+$.004) higher, at $3.749. This week, the NG market has good potential to fail on a rally. With more time, sellers will take the price down to $3.372, $3.163, $2.479 and $2.308.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-20-2002 (S&P starts at 1106.59)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved down and up, testing the prior week's low and then rallied higher. The S&P closed up for the week, at 1106.59. The Dow Industrials moved above 10,000, closing at 10,353.08. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was improved but still down by (-)24.68%. The market indices remain in a gradual process, not yet fully returned to lower levels as has been forecast in Plazaview, since10-15-2001.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is down. The stock market is moving in a potentially final, downward path of a time expending correction cycle which began in the first quarter of 2000. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the advance, which began at the end of last September, is currently failing. The stock market will eventually complete the move down to retrace most, if not all, of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is in the area of (S&P 500) 966.

This week, we roll our forecast attention from June to the September contracts.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond traded lower as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept.) Bond moved in a range of 100.24 to 98.22 and closed down, at 99.1/32. This week, the Bond may be inclined to resume moving downward as the recent gains are not sustainable. The Bond market will eventually go back down to around 97 or 96 (June).

Last week the U.S. dollar's cash index moved in a wide range from 115.32 to 113.11. By the end of the week, it closed down at 113.12. The dollar index remains in a long, sideways moving pattern which began in early October of 2000. Lately, it has been range bound, trading lower but within reach of its top. This week, the Dollar has greater potential to rally. Another week or more may be required of narrow ranged trading action, before the dollar may begin to move decidedly up, to the targets of 119.91 and 120.22. The nearest risk of a lower target is 111.38.

The Euro-Currency index ranged from .900014 to .920014, moving lower and then floating upwards last week, closing higher, at .92001. The EC at a turning point but may linger for an another week or more, close but possibly not yet ready to turn and move in a new direction. This week, the EC will be suppressed in an upward direction, with an increasingly downward bias.

The relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a three month holding range but continued to move up, last week. The CRB finished (+2.23) last week at 203.74. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. Since the fourth quarter of 2001 it has rallied enough to eliminate the down trend of October 2000, but that recent increase is not yet sustainable. This week, the CRB remains in its holding pattern, due for a return to test lower levels, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price moved higher but it was not well sustained last week, rising in a continued response to the unresolved conflict in the Middle East. CO (Sept.) Ranged from $26.05 to $27.6, closing with only a slight gain, at $26.73. This week, the Mid-East conflict remains an uncertain, fundamental influence in the market. This uncertainty may prolong the up and down volatility but CO is approaching a turning point. With a limited range, CO will trade higher before this cycle is ended; the top price is not yet established. Lower targets await the market at (Sept. -CO) $24 and $20.90.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved higher but it was not well sustained last week. The market ranged down to $.763 and up to $.796, closing just slightly higher, at $.7754. This week, HU's price top is not yet defined and a further advance has potential. Failure of the current rally will eventually result in a retracement, back down to $.72. Beyond, there may develop a potential for the $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil market price moved in a range of $.6863 to $.718, last week. The (Sept. - HO) closed slightly down for the week, at $.6892. This week, the HO price has not yet established its current price top. Perhaps not this week, a potential advance is likely to move HO (Sept.) to higher price levels. With another week or more, after a better defined top price, HO will eventually move back down to lower (Sept.- HO) targets, of $.66 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market attempted to rally last week and the higher price failed to hold as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept. -NG) ranged from $3.939 to $3.71, closing down, at $3.755 last week. This week, the NG market has the same good potential to fail on a rally. With more time, the price will move back down to $3.50, $3.125, and $2.625.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 5-27-2002 (S&P starts at 1083.82)

Last week the U.S. stock markets moved up for the beginning of the week and down at the end of the week. The S&P closed down for the week, at 1083.82. The Dow Industrials moved lower, closing at 10,104.26. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)26.23%. The market indices are in a gradual process, not yet fully returned to lower levels as has been forecast in Plazaview, since10-15-2001.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is down. The stock market is gradually moving in a potentially final, downward path of the correction cycle, begun in the first quarter of 2000. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the advance, which started at the end of last September, is currently failing. The stock market will eventually complete the move down to retrace most, if not all, of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is in the area of (S&P 500) 966.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond traded higher. The (Sept.) Bond closed up, at 100.12/32. The Bond was up but it remains in a five week, sideways moving range. This week, the Bond begins at a temporarily elevated level and it may be inclined to resume moving downward as the recent gains are not sustainable. The Bond market is likely to fall back down to around 97 or 96 (Sept) before a sustainable rise can be established.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower but recovered most of the decline. By the end of the week, it closed down (-.32) at 112.8. The dollar index remains in a long, sideways moving pattern which began in early October of 2000. Lately, it has been range bound, trading lower but within reach of its top. This week, the Dollar has greater potential to rally. As forecast, another week or more may be required of narrow ranged trading action, before the dollar may begin to move decidedly up, to the targets of 119.91 and 120.22. The nearest risk of a lower target is 111.38.

The Euro-Currency index ranged lower and then floated upwards by the end of last week, closing marginally higher, at .920015. The EC is at a turning point but it may linger for an another week or more as forecast in Plazaview. It is close but possibly not yet ready to turn direction and move convincingly downward. This week, the EC will fail to sustain some potential upward movement. An increasingly downward bias is building. With more time, 88 and 86 are likely target levels.

The relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a three month holding range and moved down, last week. The CRB finished (-2.33) last week at 201.41. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. Since the fourth quarter of 2001, it has rallied enough to eliminate the down trend of October 2000, but that recent increase is not yet sustainable, resulting in a holding pattern. This week, the CRB remains in its holding pattern, due for a return to test lower levels, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price moved down, last week. CO (Sept.) closed down (-$.78), at $25.95. This week, CO is in the process of working through a top forming pattern. With a limited range and a potential for some weeks of up and down, sideways movement, CO will trade higher before this upward cycle is ended. Lower targets await the market at (Sept. -CO) $24 and $20.90.

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved down, last week. The (Sept.) market closed down (-$.0176), at $.7578. This week, HU's price top is not yet defined and a temporary rally has some potential. Failure of the current top will eventually result in a retracement, back down to $.72. Beyond, there will develop a potential for the $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil market price moved down, last week. The (Sept. - HO) closed down (-$.0109) for the week, at $.6783. This week, the HO market price has not yet established its current price top. Perhaps not this week, a potential and temporary advance is likely to move HO (Sept.) to higher price levels. With another week or more, after a better defined top price, HO will eventually move back down to lower (Sept.- HO) targets, of $.66, $.60 and $.56 areas.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market price moved clearly downward, last week. As forecast in Plazaview, this market was ready to drop and it closed down (-$.2210), at $3.534. This week, the NG market has the same good potential to fail on a rally but this week has some increased potential for a temporary, snap back rally. With more time, the (Sept. -NG) price will move back down to $3.50, $3.125, and $2.625.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-3-2002 (S&P starts at 1067.14)

Last week the U.S. stock markets resumed the (March 2000) interim trend of a downward correction. The S&P ranged from 1095.99 to 1054.26 and closed down for the week, at 1067.14. The Dow Industrials moved lower, closing below 10,000, at 9925.25. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)27.37%. The market indices remain in a gradual correction, not yet fully returned to lower levels as forecast in Plazaview.

This week, the long term trend is up and the intermediate trend is down. The stock market is moving in a potentially final, downward path of a correction cycle, begun in the first quarter of 2000. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the advance, which started at the end of last September, is currently failing as will all potential rallies, until the correction has been completed. The stock market will eventually complete the move down by retracing most, if not all of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is in the area of (S&P 500) 966.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond traded in a range down to 99.28 and up to 101.21. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) Bond closed up, at 101.4/32. The Bond was up but it remains in a six week, drifting sideways range. This week, the Bond begins at a temporarily elevated level and it may be inclined to move up again if the stock market resumes its long, downward trend. But, the Bond's gains will be based upon the stock market's loss and this is not sustainable. The Bond market is likely to drop back down to (Sept.) 99, and possibly 97 or 96 if the stock market launches a ‘summer rally.'

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower, in a range from 113.35 to 111.26. It hit the Plazaview forecast target of 111.38. By the end of the week, it closed down (-1.10) at 111.70. The dollar index is in a long, sideways moving pattern which began in early October of 2000. Lately, it has been range bound, trading lower but within reach of its top. This week, the Dollar is past due for an initial rally. As forecast, another week or more may be required of narrow ranged trading action, before the dollar may begin to move decidedly up, to the targets of 119.91 and 120.22.

The Euro-Currency index extended its range, moving higher, closing up, at .930013. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC is at a turning point but it may linger for an another week or more. It is close but possibly not yet ready to turn direction and move convincingly downward. This week, the EC is due for a fall. This will be the initial move downward as a final top price is not yet established for this time. With more time, 88 and 86 are likely target levels.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a three month holding range and closed up, last week. The CRB finished (+2.79) last week at 204.2. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. Since the fourth quarter of 2001, it has rallied enough to eliminate the down trend of October 2000, but that rally is not sustainable, resulting in a sideways pattern. This week, the CRB remains in its holding pattern, due for an eventual return to test lower levels, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price moved in a range of $26.8 to $24.8, last week. CO (Sept.) closed down (-$.71), at $25.24. This week, CO is in the process of working through a top forming pattern. With a limited range and a potential for some weeks of up and down, sideways movement, CO will trade higher before this upward cycle is ended. Lower targets still await the market at $24.00 and $20.86 (Sept. -CO).

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved in a range of $.7545 to $.714, last week. The (Sept.) market hit the Plazaview forecast target of $.72 and closed down (-$.0281), at $.7297. This week, HU's price top is not yet defined and a rally has the potential to go back up to $.7578 and higher. After some time, an eventual failure of the recent top will then result in a retracement, back down to the $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil market price moved lower, in a range of $.681 to $.643, last week. The (Sept. - HO) hit the Plazaview forecast target of $.66 and closed down (-$.0222) for the week, at $.6561. This week, the HO market price has not yet established a current price top but it is in a downward trend and it is likely to go lower. Probably not this week, a temporary reversal will move HO (Sept) back up to the recent top price levels. After a better defined top price, HO will eventually move back down to lower (Sept.- HO) targets, of $.60 and $.56 areas.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market price moved further downward, in a range from $3.61 to $3.28 last week. The (Sept - NG) hit the Plazaview forecast target of $3.50, closing further down (-$.225) for the week, at $3.309. This week, the NG market has some potential to continue moving lower but as the market falls, a snap-back rally, to $3.755, will develop greater potential. With more time, the (Sept. -NG) price will move further down to $3.125, $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-10-2002 (S&P starts at 1027.53)

Last week the U.S. stock markets resumed the (March 2000) interim trend of a downward correction. The S&P ranged from 1070.74 to 1012.49 and closed down for the week, at 1027.53. The Dow Industrials also moved lower, closing at 9589.67. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)30.05%. The market indices remain in a gradual correction, not yet fully returned to the lower levels as forecast in Plazaview.

This week, the long term trend is still up and the intermediate trend is still down. The stock market is moving in the potentially final, downward path of a correction cycle, begun in the first quarter of 2000. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the advance, which started at the end of last September, will continue failing as will all potential rallies, as this correction is still incomplete. The stock market will eventually complete the move down by retracing most, if not all of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is in the area of (S&P 500) 966. This Plazaview forecast target is 6% below last week's close. The S&P 500 is forecast to go 34.25% below the pre-correction, 1999's year end close. Plazaview's insightful readers have benefitted from an early forecast.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond traded in a range up to 101.31 and down to 100.14. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) Bond closed down, at 100.25/32. The Bond closed down but it remained in a seven week, drifting sideways range. This week, the Bond may be more inclined to move up and remain there if the stock market resumes its long, downward trend. The Bond market is gradually building an upward trend. Any selling at this point is likely to be a momentary drop, back down to (Sept.) 99, possibly 97 or even 96, if the stock market launches a ‘summer rally.'

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower, in a narrow range. By the end of the week, it closed down (-.66) at 111.04. The dollar index is in a long-term, upward trend. More immediately, it is in a sideways moving correction pattern, begun in early October of 2000. Lately, it has been range bound, trading lower but within reach of its top. This week, the Dollar is past due for a snap back rally. As forecast, soon, maybe another week or more is required of narrow ranged trading action, before the dollar will move decidedly up, to the targets of 119.91 and 120.22. Falling crude oil, during the past three weeks, may have had some negative affect.

The Euro-Currency index extended its upward range, trading from 93.0011 to 94.0074, closing up, at .940042. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC has been rising since the start of the year but it is at a turning point. It may linger for an another week or more but it is close to turning direction, downward. This week, the EC is overdue for to drop back. This will be the initial move downward as a final top price is not yet established for this time. With the impending change in direction, 88 and 86 are expected target levels.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a three month holding range and closed marginally lower, last week. The CRB finished (-1.37) last week at 202.83. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. Since the fourth quarter of 2001, it has rallied enough to eliminate the down trend of October 2000, but that new rally is not sustainable, resulting in a sideways holding pattern. This week begins in its holding pattern but eventually, it is destined to move back down, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price moved in a range of $25.35 to $24.7, last week. CO (Sept.) closed almost unchanged, down (-$.18), at $25.06. This week, CO is now poised, with better downward clearance, to move lower except that CO has some potentially unfinished trading at higher levels. Traders could launch some temporary rallies, trading CO higher but buying above current levels is hazardous at this point. Lower targets await the market at $24.00 and $20.86 (Sept. -CO).

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price moved in a range of $.7185 to $.7412, last week. The (Sept.) market moved back up as forecast in Plazaview, closing (+$.0064), at $.7361. This week, HU's price top is still not yet final and a rally has good potential to go back up to $.7578. After some time, the eventual failure of the recent top will then result in a retracement, back down to the $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil market price moved lower, in a range of $.6605 to $.6400, last week. The (Sept. - HO) recovered most of the decline, to close down (-$.0037) for the week, at $.6524. This week, the HO market is now in a downward cycle and it is likely to go lower but it may have recently moved to far too fast.. A temporary reversal can move HO (Sept) back up but not to the recent top price levels. HO will eventually move down to lower (Sept.- HO) targets, of $.60 and $.56 areas.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market price moved narrowly, in a range of $3.393 to $3.238 last week. The (Sept - NG) closed down (-$.0150) for the week, at $3.294. This week, the NG market is in a downward path but it may have moved too far down, already. As a result, there is potential for a temporary rise, back up to $3.755. The immediate trend remains downward. With more time, the (Sept. -NG) price will move lower, to $3.125, $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-17-2002 (S&P starts at 1007.27)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued moving down in the (March 2000) interim trend of a downward correction. The S&P closed down for the week, at 1007.27. The Dow Industrials also moved lower, closing at 9474.21. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)31.44%. The market indices remain in a gradual correction, not yet fully returned to the lower levels, as forecast: early and accurately in Plazaview.

This week, the long term trend is still up and the intermediate trend is still down. The stock market is in the potentially final, downward path of a correction cycle, begun in the first quarter of 2000. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the advance, which started at the end of last September, will continue failing as will all potential rallies, until this correction is completed. The stock market will complete the move down by retracing most, if not all of the September - December gains. The next and possibly final lower target is now close, at (S&P 500) 966. As forecast, the S&P 500 will go to 34.25% below the pre-correction, 1999's year end close. This week could see a drop to complete the forecasted correction, followed by a recovery rally.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond traded higher as forecast in Plazaview. By the end of last week, the (Sept.) Bond closed up, at 103.28/32. The Bond moved above and broke out of its seven week, drifting sideways range. This week, although the Bond is trending higher, some stock market players will be tempted to raise cash and this may cause a downward pull on the Bond. Otherwise, the stock market continues its long, downward trend and the Bond will simply proceed higher in its upward trend. Any Bond selling, at this point, is likely to be a momentary drop. The T-bond will back down to (Sept.) 99, possibly 97, or even 96, when/if the stock market launches a possible ‘summer rally.'

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index remained in a narrow ranged holding pattern. By the end of the week, it closed marginally lower (-.28) at 110.76. The dollar index is in a long-term, upward trend. More immediately, it is in a sideways correction pattern, begun in early October of 2000. Lately, it has been range bound, trading lower but within reach of its top. This week, the Dollar is still past due for a snap back rally. As forecast, very soon, maybe another week or more is required of narrow ranged trading action, before the dollar will commence moving decidedly up, to the targets of 119.91 and 120.22. Falling crude oil, during the past four weeks, may have had some negative affect upon the dollar index, only delaying its rise.

The Euro-Currency index extended its upward range, but failed to hold its gains, closing marginally lower, at .94005. As forecast in Plazaview, the EC has been rising since the start of the year but it is now at a turning point. This week, the EC may linger for another week or more but it is due for turning direction, downward. With the impending change in direction, 88 and 86 are the eventual, lower target levels.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a three month holding range and closed marginally lower, last week. The CRB finished (-.22) last week at 202.61. The CRB peaked in October of 2000 and then it trended lower. Since the fourth quarter of 2001, it has rallied enough to eliminate the down trend of October 2000, but that new rally is not sustainable, resulting in its current situation of a sideways holding pattern. This week, it begins in its holding pattern but eventually, it is destined to move back down, toward the CRB level of 192.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price rallied, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. CO (Sept.) closed up (+$1.04), at $26.10. This week, CO is now poised, with better downward clearance, to move lower. Buying above current levels is increasingly hazardous at this point. Lower targets await the market at $24.00 and $20.86 (Sept. -CO).

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price rallied, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept.) market moved back up and beyond the target ($.7578) as forecast in Plazaview, closing up, at $.7716. This week, HU's price is vulnerable. Rallies will begin to fail and then result in a gradual retracement, back down to the $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil market rallied higher, last week, as it had previously fallen to far to fast. The (Sept. - HO) closed up (-$.0272) for the week, at $.6796. This week, the HO market is in the beginnings of a downward cycle but it may have a little more rally left in it. Another temporary rally can move HO (Sept) further up but not significantly. HO will eventually move down, to lower (Sept.- HO) targets of $.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market rallied, last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept - NG) closed up (+$.1410) for the week, at $3.435. This week, the NG market is in a downward path but it had recently moved too far down, getting ahead of itself. As a result, there remains the potential for a temporary rise to continue, back up to $3.755. The immediate trend remains downward. With more time, the (Sept. -NG) price will move lower, to $3.125, $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-24-2002 (S&P starts at 989.14)

Last week the U.S. stock markets continued in the downward direction of the (March 2000) interim correction. The S&P closed down for the week, at 989.14. The Dow Industrials also moved lower, closing at 9253.79. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end, the S&P 500 was down by (-)32.68%. The market indices remain in a gradual correction cycle, now close to the targeted level, as early and accurately forecast in Plazaview.

This week, the long term trend is up but the intermediate trend is still down. The stock market is now in the potentially final, downward path of the correction cycle. This week's trading retains the underlying potential of the long term trend to rally but the markets will continue to move lower, until this correction is complete. The stock market will complete the move down by initially hitting the next and possibly final, lower target. As forecast (since 10-15-01) in Plazaview, the S&P 500 will go to (S&P 500) 966, that is 34.25% below the pre-correction, 1999's year end close. The minimum target is near enough that this week may hit that target. With that forecasted target reached, a rally will soon follow, however, the correction will not have ended and weeks or months of sideways market action is likely before this correction ends.

Last week, the (Sept) T-bond traded mostly lower, down to (103.) and recovered to close slightly higher for the week, at 104.4/32. This week, the Bond is trending higher and will proceed in that direction but some stock market players will take cash from the Bond market and as in the prior week, this may inflict a downward pull on the Bond. Otherwise, as the stock market completes its downward cycle, the Bond will proceed higher in its upward trend. Any Bond selling, at this point, is likely to be a momentary drop. The T-bond could back down to (Sept.) 99, possibly 97, or even 96, but only if the stock market launches a very significant ‘summer rally.'

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower, possibly overextending its recent drop. By the end of the week, it closed down (-2.69.) at 108.07. The dollar index is in a price correction, within a long-term, upward trend. The correction began as a sideways pattern in early October of 2000, responding to an overextended advance. Since January, the index has been moving increasingly downward. This week, the Dollar is overextended on the down side and due for a snap back rally, up to an initial target of 111.70.

The Euro-Currency index moved further up, last week, closing (+.02004) higher, at .96009. The EC has been steadily rising since the start of the year. Last week, it moved into an overextended advance. This week, the advance is not finished but a pull back, to at least .930013, is merited.

The comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained within a three month range. The CRB closed (+.98) higher, last week, at 203.59. Since the fourth quarter of 2001, the CRB has rallied enough to eliminate the down trend of October 2000, but the new rally is stalled in its current, holding pattern. This week begins with the CRB in a holding pattern; there is a downward risk to 192, but the CRB is primarily in an upward trend.

Crude oil's (NY-Sept. -CO) market price remained in a narrow range ($26.23 to $25.20) last week, and as forecast in Plazaview, it moved lower. CO (Sept.) closed down (-$.38), at $25.72. This week, CO is in the early stage of a downtrend, poised to move lower. Buying above current levels is increasingly hazardous at this point. Lower targets await the market at $24.00 and $20.86 (Sept. -CO).

The NY (Sept. -HU) gasoline market price remained in a range of $.775 to $.746 last week, and as forecast in Plazaview, it moved lower. The (Sept.) market closed down (-$.02), at $.7516. This week, HU's price in the early stage of a downtrend. Rallies will begin to fail and a gradual retracement will bring the (Sept. delivery) price down to the $.65 and $.60 areas.

The NY (Sept. -HO) heating oil rallied briefly and moved lower in a range of $.6875 to $.657, last week. The (Sept. - HO) closed down (-$.0159) for the week, at $.6637. This week, the HO market is in a downward trend. HO will eventually move down, to lower targets of (Sept.- HO)$.60 and $.56.

The NY (Sept. -NG) natural gas market rallied only briefly, last week, and moved lower in a range of $3.484 to $3.25. The (Sept - NG) closed down (-$.1110) for the week, at $3.324. This week, the NG market is in a downward path but it had recently moved too far down, getting ahead of itself. As a result, there remains the potential for a temporary rise, back up to $3.755. With more time, the (Sept. -NG) price will proceed lower, to $3.125, $2.625, and $2.607.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>