Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 3rd Qtr. of 2001

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-2-2001 (S&P starts at 1224.40)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices remained in a narrow range for a second week. The Dow closed down at 10,502.4; the S&P 500 closed almost unchanged but down for the week at 1224.40. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of fourteen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 7.26%) for the year.

As has been forecast in Plazaview, technical indicators anticipate an eventual return, temporarily, to the year's lowest levels. This week begins with the major indices still in a correction phase but at a point of support. The markets are in a long term rising trend and while the correction that ran from March of 2,000 through May of 2001 has ended, the process of establishing a base price and renewing the trend is now in progress. The current downward risk is to the April lows. Last week's action ended a second week with the market well positioned for a rally this week but first, it must break through overhead resistance. Measured by the S&P 500, resistance is now at approximately 1255. If the market can break through and hold above this resistance level, a new leg up may be in progress. Still, this would be a limited rally.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond moved down and hit two of three targets forecast in Plazaview.com. The (Sept.) contract ended near its low for the week and two ticks above the target forecast in Plazaview, at 100.10/32. This week begins with the T-bond in a rising trend. The Bond has a good price base and capacity to move higher, eventually to 106.14. But first, it may move down, briefly, to 98.20/32. The current advance is building a more solid base. For the September contract, higher price targets are at 101.5/32, 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved above and below the prior week's range. The Dollar index closed up for the week at 119.48. As described previously in Plazaview, this week has potential for a return to upward movement but the Dollar is playing out a long, top forming scenario. A price top has been building since early October of last year, and current advances are only retesting near the same levels with marginally higher prices now resulting. The past four weeks have seen sideways movement. This week is relatively critical, as the Dollar is at a point of breaking up or down, with increasingly greater potential to the downside as time progresses. While unlikely for this week, the nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also the more distant 111.38. The large U.S. corporations would realize increased profits with a lower dollar and continued Federal Reserve rate declines will enable this goal.

The NY gold market continued trading in a sideways pattern last week, as forecast in Plazaview.com. The August contract closed down (by $2.00), at $271.3. This week, the NY gold market still has a good base and it is rising on a trend of support from which to continue an advance. An attempt at higher prices would conclude the recent surge of buyers and end this current rally. Otherwise, gold will continue sideways with an increasingly downward bias.

Crude oil (NY) traded lower for the beginning of last week and then recovered somewhat. The September contract closed lower, at $26.25. It is nearing an initial bottom price and a rally may be contemplated by traders but the final bottom is not yet established. There is further downside potential but CO will eventually return to higher levels and test the recent top price. The first target is lower, at $25.61.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market moved down for most of last week and then it recovered some of the loss. The (Sept.) HU closed down, at $.7275. This week, the market has nearly completed its downward price correction and a rally will result after a period of price base building is complete. The nearest targets are higher, at $.7618 and $.8163.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil moved down at the start of last week, passing through two of the three targets forecast in Plazaview.com. The (Sept.) HO rallied at the end of the week but closed down for the week, at $.732. This week the (Sept.) HO contract is caught in the summer doldrums, following the direction of crude oil. A lower price target awaits at $.7027 but higher targets are waiting at $.7427 and $.7826.

The NY natural gas market moved straight down last week. The (Sept.) NG closed down (by $.66) for the week, at $3.185. As forecast in prior weeks' Plazaview.com forecasts, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. The price bottom is not yet established and the prospect of a rally has become greater with each prior week's decline. As in the previous seven weeks, this week has good potential for a delayed price rebound to occur. The market has become extremely oversold with capital moved from winter products to summer products, now in excessive action. A return to higher targets will eventually take the (Sept.) contract up to the nearby $3.845, $5.645 and higher.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-9-2001 (S&P starts at 1190.5)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices moved lower by the end of the week. The Dow closed down at 10,252.68; the S&P 500 closed down for the week at 1190.59. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of fifteen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 9.82%) for the year.

As forecast in Plazaview, a return to the year's lowest levels has been anticipated. Last week's decline brought the markets closer to the year's lows. This week begins with the major indices still in a correction phase. The markets are in a long term, rising trend and while the downward correction that ran from March of 2,000 through May of 2001 has ended, the process of establishing a base price and renewing the upward trend is now in progress. The current downward risk is to the April lows. Last week's action broke down and through a former support level; this leaves the market still working lower. All rallies are temporary at this point.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond moved up and down in a relatively narrow range. The (Sept.) contract recovered and ended with an advance of 2/32 above the prior week, at 100.12/32. This week begins with the T-bond in a rising trend but conflicted by overhead resistance. The Bond has a good price base and capacity to move higher, eventually to 106.14. But first, it may move down once more, briefly, to 98.20/32. The current action is building a more solid base. For the September contract, higher price targets are at 101.5/32, 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index inched higher again, above the prior week's range. The Dollar index closed nearly half a point higher for the week, at 119.92, a negligible advance. As described previously in Plazaview, this week has potential for a return to upward movement but the Dollar is playing out a long, top forming scenario and it is now overextended. A price top has been building since early October of last year, and current advances are only retesting near the same levels with marginally higher prices resulting. The Dollar is at a point of breaking up or down, with greater potential to the downside. While unlikely for this week, the nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also the more distant 111.38. Large U.S. corporations would realize increased profits with a lower dollar and continued Federal Reserve rate declines will enable this goal.

The NY gold market moved down last week. The August contract closed down (by $4.70), at $266.6. This week, the NY gold market has a rising trend of support from which to recover and advance but it looks vulnerable. Gold will increasingly move with a downward bias as rallies will fail to maintain an upward trend in the future.

Crude oil (NY) traded higher last week and the September contract closed up, at $27.69. Before moving higher, as forecast in Plazaview, CO traded down and the September contract hit our $25.61 target with a $25.35 low for the week. CO is now in a range bound environment and it is likely to move accordingly this week with some potential for a further advance.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market moved higher last week but remained close to its base as expected. The (Sept.) HU closed up, at $.7578. This week, the market has a potential target that is higher and nearby, at $.7618. The next higher target is $.8163 and this too will draw the HU market to rally further, before retesting the lows of two weeks ago.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil moved up and down, within and near the limits of the prior week's range. The (Sept.) HO rallied at the end of the week hitting the target of $.7427 as forecast in Plazaview and closed near its top for the week, at $.7463. This week the (Sept.) HO contract is following the lead of the CO market. It has critical price support and with that, an opportunity to rally. A breakdown from this support will bring the market to briefly test target at $.7027; but, a higher target is waiting at $.7826. Traders will be watching for direction from CO this week.

The NY natural gas market moved in a narrow range last week and the (Sept.) NG closed up (by $.1150) for the week, at $3.30. As forecast in prior weeks' Plazaview forecasts, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. The price base is now in the initial phase and the prospect of a rally has become greater with each prior week's decline. As in the previous eight weeks, this week has increased potential for the delayed price rebound to occur. The market has become extremely oversold and it is ready to make its initial move, higher. A return to higher targets will eventually take the (Sept.) contract up to the nearby $3.845, $5.645 and higher.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-16-2001 (S&P starts at 1215.68)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices moved lower at the start of the week but turned and gradually moved higher by the end of the week. Still, the S&P 500's high for the week was only up to the mid-range of the previous week. The Dow closed up at 10,539; the S&P 500 closed up for the week at 1215.68. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of sixteen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 7.92%) for the year.

As described in Plazaview, the major stock market indices are currently in a correction phase. Long term, the markets are in a rising trend. The major downward correction, running from March of 2,000 through May of 2001, has ended. Now, the process of establishing a base price before renewing the upward trend is in progress. With this, up and down movement is expected and the current downward risk potential is to the April lows. This week's action will be fundamentally influenced by corporate earning reports but a continued pattern of buying and higher prices is likely to build through the week.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond moved up in a continuation pattern of the prior weeks. The (Sept.) contract advanced by 46/32 above the prior week, to close at 101.26/32. This week the T-bond is in a rising trend but in the area of 102.20/32 (Sept.), it will present some resistance. The Bond has a good price base and it will gradually move higher. The cash Bond yield rate closed last Friday at 5.628%, it will gradually move down to a target of 5.297%. For the September contract, higher price targets are now at 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14/32. A distant and lower target remains at 98.20/32 but the market has moved out of range and it is trending higher.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index inched just slightly higher again, but closed down for the week, within a narrow trading range. The Dollar index closed lower for the week, at 119.22. As previously forecast in Plazaview, this week the Dollar is playing out a long, top forming pattern. An extended price top has been building since early October of last year, and current advances are only retesting near the same levels with marginally higher prices resulting. The Dollar is now at a critical point of breaking down, at least for a correction from its overextended price movement. While unlikely for this week, the nearest lower target is at 113.04 and there is also the more distant 111.38. A lower dollar exchange rate will provide increased profits from the international operations of large U. S. corporations. This could propel the S & P index higher.

The NY gold market remained in a narrow, sideways pattern last week. The August contract closed slightly up (by $1.00), at $267.6. This week, the market still has a rising trend of support from which to advance but this looks vulnerable. A rally to higher prices is needed this week or the market will return to its drifting pattern of the past. Gold is vulnerable and likely to lose its current upward trend.

Crude oil (NY) traded down last week and the September contract closed lower, at $26.14. This week, CO is still in a range bound environment. Until it establishes a new price base at lower levels, it is likely to continue range bound.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market moved up and down last week. It hit the forecast target of $.7618 but then remained close to its base. The (Sept.) HU closed down, at $.737. This week, the market has a higher potential target but it is distant, at $.8163. Any significant selling at this point will be excessive, buyers will gradually return to push HU higher.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil moved down for most of last week. The market broke through its support and as forecast in Plazaview, it hit the targeted price of $.7027. The (Sept.) HO closed near it lows for the week, at $.6973. This week the HO market is trending lower but near the immediate limits of this move. Aside from the chance for excessive liquidation, an initial price bounce can be expected this week. Not for this week, a distant and higher target is waiting at $.7826.

The NY natural gas market continued moving gradually higher last week, for a second week. As described in the prior weeks' Plazaview, the NG market is oversold and buyers are slow to return. Last week the (Sept.) NG closed slightly higher (by $.003) for the week, at $3.33. As also forecast in prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. The initial price base is in formation and the prospect of a continued, initial advance is likely. Buyers will soon take the (Sept.) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.845, $5.645.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-23-2001 (S&P starts at 1210.85)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices remained in a narrow trading range. The markets have drifted sideways, with a downward bias for the past five weeks. The S&P 500 closed at 1210.85, slightly lower for the week. The Dow closed higher for the week, at 10,576.6. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of seventeen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 8.29%) for the year.

As described in Plazaview, the major stock market indices remain in a correction phase. The long term trend is rising. More immediately, the process of establishing a base price before renewing the upward trend is in gradual progression. With this, market rallies can be expected but the current downward risk potential is a return to this year's April lows.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond continued moving higher, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) contract advanced by 41/32 above the prior week, settling for the week at 103.4/32. During the past two weeks, the (Sept) contract has gained 87/32. This week the T-bond is in a rising trend but with the prior two weeks' spike-up movement, a week of consolidation is now possible. With or without consolidation, the Bond will gradually move higher. For the (Sept) T-bond contract, higher price targets are now at 103.21, 105.23, and 106.14/32. A distant and lower target remains at 98.20/32 but the market has moved out of that range and it is trending higher. The cash Bond yield rate closed down last Friday, at 5.532%. The yield rate will gradually move down to a target of 5.297% and possibly to 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index dropped and closed at its low for the week. The Dollar index closed lower for the week, at 117.25. As previously forecast in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern. An extended price top has been building since early October of last year. The Dollar is now moving lower, to correct from its overextended advance. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and then there is a more distant 111.38. A lower dollar exchange rate will provide increased profits for the international operations of large, U. S. corporations. This factor may eventually lift the S & P index higher.

The NY gold market returned to a pattern of buying last week. Turning from August, the October contract closed higher, at $271.8. This week, the market is in a short term rising trend of support from which to continue its advance. From the technical view, this week offers clear sailing for the market to move higher. However, the fundamentals do not support an advance. Gold is showing a pattern of buying which may be the result of prospects for a lower Dollar but gold as replacement currency is permeable logic.

Crude oil (NY) traded up and mostly down last week, the (Sept) contract closed lower, at $25.94. This week, CO is still in a range bound environment. Until it establishes a new price base at lower levels, it is likely to continue range bound.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market traded in a consolidating range last week. The (Sept) HU closed marginally (-$.0127) lower at $.7243. This week, the market has a potential to rally higher and a distant target is $.8163. Any significant selling at this point will be excessive, buyers will soon return and move HU higher.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market dropped lower last week but recovered most of the loss on Friday. The (Sept.) HO closed only slightly (-$.0062) lower for last week, at $.6911. This week, the HO market is trending lower but near the immediate limits of this move, although, a price base is not yet established. The chance for excessive liquidation in this warm month of July, is always possible but unlikely and an initial price bounce can be expected this week. In the future, not this week, a distant and higher target is waiting at $.7826.

The NY natural gas market lost its upward momentum of the previous two weeks and sank lower in the final two days of last weeks' trading. As described previously in Plazaview, the NG market is oversold and buyers are slow to return. Last week, the (Sept.) NG closed (-$.3330) lower for the week, at $2.997. As described in prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. Last week's selling action left the market primed to move higher this week. Sellers are pushing the price to extremes and buyers will soon discover this opportunity. Buyers will eventually take the (Sept.) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.845 and $5.645. The December NG contract has a better time span. This week should see a return of buyers and higher prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 7-30-2001 (S&P starts at 1205.82)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices traded in a range similar to that of the two weeks ago. The markets have now drifted sideways, with a downward bias for the past six weeks. The S&P 500 closed at 1205.82, slightly lower for the week. Also, the Dow closed lower for the week, at 10,416.67. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of eighteen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 8.67%) for the year.

As described in Plazaview, the major stock market indices remain in a correction phase. The long term trend is rising. More immediately, the process of establishing a base price before renewing the upward trend is in a gradual progression. With this, current market rallies can be expected but the downward risk potential is a return to this year's April lows. During the past four weeks, a potential has been building for a market rally. This week, traders will closely watch the 1200 level of the S&P's cash index; price stability above this level will encourage buyers to rally the market.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond tested marginally lower and turned to continue its recent advance. As forecast in Plazaview, the (Sept) Bond moved up and beyond the 103.21 target, with a high of 103.30/32 for the week. The (Sept) contract consolidated its advance of the prior two weeks with an advance of 11/32 for last week, closing up, at 103.15/32. During the past three weeks, the (Sept) contract has gained 98/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and the (Sept) Bond has higher price targets at 105.23, and 106.14/32. Some profit taking can be expected and a nearby, lower target is at 102.28/32; a distant, lower target is at 98.20/32 but the market has moved well out of that range. The cash Bond yield rate closed slightly up last Friday, at 5.541%. The yield rate will gradually move down to a target of 5.297% and possibly to 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved lower as forecast in Plazaview and it closed at 116.79 for the week. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. The Dollar is now correcting lower but the upward trend remains in effect. As a result, over the next few weeks, the Dollar can be expected to move gradually lower but the upward trend may then support and recover the Dollar into a new sideways direction, unless the old trend is broken. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and then there is a more distant 111.38. A lower dollar to foreign exchange rate will provide increased profits for the international operations of large, U. S. corporations. This factor may soon lift the S & P index higher in expectation.

The NY gold market forecast is now replaced in this market forecast space by the broader market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index. The CRB has been in a down trend since it peaked in October of last year. Last week, the index moved lower and closed down at 203.7. The index is trending further down, back to the levels of two years ago, a target of approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) traded mostly up last week, the (Sept) contract closed higher, at $27.02. Last weeks' rally broke through some resistance and this week, CO is positioned to continue higher, within a broader range, but resistance awaits in the area of $27.50.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market rallied as forecast in Plazaview. Last week, the market moved up just enough to break out of its down trend, but it still remained in a consolidating range. The (Sept) HU closed (+$.0286) higher at $.7529. This week, the market has good potential to rally further out of its oversold condition. An upper target is waiting at $.8163. As previously forecast, significant selling at this point will be excessive, buyers will return to move HU higher.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market moved up last week as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept.) HO closed up by (+$.0250) for last week, at $.7161. This week, the HO market is still trending lower but another advance this week my break the down trend. The chance for excessive liquidation in this warm month of July, is always possible but now unlikely and another price rise is possible for this week. For the near future, not this week, a distant and higher target is waiting at $.7826.

The NY natural gas market rose higher as forecast in Plazaview. As described previously in Plazaview, the NG market has been in an oversold price condition, overdue for buyers to return. Last week, the (Sept.) NG closed (+$.1970) higher for the week, at $3.194. As described in prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. Buyers will eventually take the (Sept.) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.845 and $5.645. The December NG contract has a better time span. This week should see a continued return of buyers and higher prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-6-2001 (S&P starts at 1214.35)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices traded in a very narrow trading range as shown in the S&P. The markets have now drifted sideways, with a downward bias for the past seven weeks. The S&P 500 closed at 1214.35, slightly higher for the week. Also, the Dow closed slightly higher for the week, at 10,512.7. The S&P 500 is above this year's low of nineteen weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 8.02%) for the year.

As described in Plazaview, the stock market indices remain in a major correction phase. The long term trend is rising. But, the current process of establishing a base price before renewing the upward trend is in a slow and gradual progression. Current market rallies can be expected but the downward risk potential is to retest this year's April lows. As the market consolidated during the past five months, a potential has been building for a market rally. This week, traders continue to closely watch the 1200 level of the S&P's cash index. If the index remains above this (S&P) level of 1200, buyers will be encouraged to buy and the market may progress to 1260 - 1320.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond experienced some expected profit taking and hit the 102.28 target, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) contract made higher ground and consolidated its recent advance, closing down, at 103.2/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and the (Sept) Bond has higher price targets at 105.23, and 106.14/32. Additional consolidation and sideways movement is possible this week but the Bond is trending higher and it will eventually hit these higher targets. The cash Bond yield rate closed up last Friday, at 5.583%. The yield rate is now in a narrow pattern but it is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved lower as forecast in Plazaview but it remained in a narrow range, closing at 116.10 for the week. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. The Dollar is now beginning to correct lower but the upward trend remains in effect and this may soon provide price support. From last Friday's level, the Dollar can be expected to rebound this week, but only to its upper range. This recoil will gradually fail and the upward trend may eventually give way to lower Dollar levels. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and then there is a more distant 111.38. A lower dollar to foreign exchange rate will provide increased profits for the international operations of the largest U. S. corporations. This expectation may soon provide lift to the S & P index.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved further down as forecast in Plazaview. As of last Friday's close, it was at 200.23. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will move lower but an initial and temporary bounce is due in the near future. In time, the CRB will test the levels of two years ago, at a target of approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) traded mostly up last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) contract closed (+$.60) higher, at $27.62. Last weeks' rally broke through some final resistance. This week, CO is positioned to continue higher.
The NY (Sept.) gasoline market rallied again, as forecast in Plazaview. Last week, the (Sept) HU closed (+$.0236) higher at $.7765. This week, some consolidation may be due but the market has good potential to move higher. An upper target is waiting at $.8163.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market moved up last week, again, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept.) HO closed up by (+$.0101) for last week, at $.7161. This week, the HO market is at a critical point. Although HO may attempt to rally higher, it has not yet established a base price. The chance for a sustainable rally is unlikely at this time. The base price needs to be set and this can be accomplished with a return to recent, lower levels. For the future, not this week, a distant and higher target is at $.7826.

The NY natural gas market rose higher at the start of last week but profit taking returned it to the recent low levels. Last week, the (Sept.) NG closed (-$.223) lower for the week, at $2.971. The USA's current summer weather is fundamentally discouraging buyers from NG but technically, NG is ready to buy. As described in prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. Buyers will eventually take the (Sept.) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.845 and $5.645. The December and later NG contracts have a better time span for buyers. This week should see a return of buyers and higher prices, any selling will be excessive and temporary.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-13-2001 (S&P starts at 1190.16)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices attempted to rally but then failed and traded lower. The markets have now drifted sideways, with a downward bias for the past eight weeks. The S&P 500 closed down for the week, at 1190.16, below the critical 1200 level as described in the prior week's Plazaview. Also, the Dow 30 closed down for the week, at 10,416.25. The S&P 500 is still above this year's low of twenty weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 9.86%) for this year.

As previously described in Plazaview, the stock market indices remain in a major correction phase, while the long term trend is still rising. The current process of establishing a base price, before renewing the upward trend, is in a slow and gradual progression. Trend following market rallies can be expected but the incomplete correction cycle remains and the risk potential is to retest this year's April lows. This week, traders will closely watch the 1200 level of the S&P's cash index. If the S&P can rise back above this 1200 level, buyers will be encouraged to buy and the market may progress to 1260 - 1320. Anyway and eventually, the markets will proceed lower, to test the April lows.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond traded sideways in a consolidation pattern but also finished higher as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) T-bond closed up, at 104. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and the (Sept) contract is trending towards upper price targets at 105.23, and 106.14/32. Additional consolidation and sideways movement is possible this week but the Bond will eventually hit these higher targets. The cash Bond yield rate closed down last Friday, at 5.526%. The yield rate is now in a narrow pattern but it is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index moved lower but remained in a narrow range, closing at 115.26 for the week. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Now, the Dollar is beginning to correct to lower levels. This week begins with the Dollar at a level of price support. If the support holds at last Friday's closing level, the Dollar can be expected to rebound this week, but only to its upper range. This potential to bounce will eventually fail and the upward trend may eventually give way to lower Dollar levels. The nearest lower target is at 113.04 and then there is a more distant 111.38. A lower Dollar to foreign exchange rate will provide increased profits for the international operations of the largest U. S. corporations. This potential may provide some lift to the S & P index.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index moved slightly higher last week, as forecast in Plazaview. As of last Friday's close, it was at 200.79. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will continue moving lower but at current levels, another temporary and minor rise is due. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) traded higher last week as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) contract closed (+$.43) higher, at $28.05. This week, CO is still trending higher. Although some consolidation is likely, CO is moving up to $29., possibly above $30.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market consolidated during the week and then rallied higher, all as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) HU closed (+$.0225) higher at $.799. This week, some consolidation may occur but the market has very good potential to resume its upward momentum. An upper target is waiting at $.8163 and higher levels are likely.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market moved up last week, to close at $.7439. As previously described in Plazaview, HO may attempt to rally higher but it has not yet established a price base. The current advance is unlikely to be sustainable at this time. The base price needs to be set and this may be accomplished with a quick return to recent, lower levels. For the future, not this week, a distant and higher target is at $.7826.

The NY natural gas market rallied impressively but then sold off last week. The (Sept.) NG closed (+$.069) higher for last week, at $3.04. As forecast in Plazaview, there was a return of buyers and higher prices resulted. The USA's current summer weather is fundamentally discouraging buyers but during the past five weeks, NG has been building a price base. As described in the prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. Buyers will eventually take the (Sept.) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.845 and $5.645. The December and March NG contracts offer a better time span for buyers. This week, any potential selling will be temporary and beneficial for skillful buyers.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-20-2001 (S&P starts at 1161.97)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices failed to rise above the S&P 500's critical 1200 level and the markets moved lower as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 closed down for the week, at 1161.97. Also, the Dow 30 closed down for the week, at 10,240.78. The S&P 500 is still above this year's low of twenty weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 11.99%) for this year.

As previously described in Plazaview, the stock market indices remain in a major correction phase, while the long term trend is still rising. The current process of establishing a base price, before renewing the upward trend, is in a slow and gradual progression. Trend following market rallies can be expected but the incomplete correction cycle remains and the potential risk is to retest this year's April lows. This week, there is a potential for the markets to attract some impatient buyers in reaction to last week's selling action. Traders will view the 1200 level of the S&P's cash index as the current point of resistance. Eventually, the markets will proceed lower, to test the April lows.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond moved gradually higher as has been forecast in Plazaview for many weeks. The (Sept) T-bond gained 40/32, to close at 105.8/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and the (Sept) contract is trending towards upper price targets at 105.23, and 106.14/32. This week may be volatile, late buyers may try to push the Bond higher but as of last week's close, there is now a risk of some profit taking. The (Sept) Bond has an immediate, lower target of 104.13. In any event, the Bond will eventually hit the higher targets. The cash Bond yield rate closed down last Friday, at 5.422%. The yield rate is now in a narrow pattern but it is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index broke through technical support and continued to move lower, closing at 112.94 for the week. On its way, it also hit the 113.04 target, as forecast in Plazaview. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have made its top and it is beginning to correct to lower levels. This week may bring lower Dollar levels. The next target is at 111.38. The Dollar is not in a free fall, it is making a normal correction from an overbought condition.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index remained in a narrow range last week, but moved higher in minor rise as forecast in Plazaview. As of last Friday's close, the CRB index was at 201.42. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will continue moving lower but at current levels, another temporary and minor rise is possible. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) traded lower in a broad consolidation last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Sept) contract closed (-$1.37) lower, at $26.68. CO begins this week at the lower end of a sideways trend and needs to reestablish its direction. CO is drifting sideways, with conflicting trends. CO may test lower before it eventually moves up to $29., possibly above $30.

The NY (Sept.) gasoline market rallied last week and hit the upper (Sept) target of $.8163 as forecast in Plazaview. The market suddenly turned down at the end of last week and the (Sept) HU closed (-$.0595) lower, at $.7395. This week, some consolidation may occur as direction is reestablished.

The NY (Sept.) heating oil market moved up last week but the move collapsed on Friday. The price closed (-$.0388) down for the week, at $.7051. As previously described in Plazaview, HO may attempt to rally higher but it has not yet established a price base. The base price needs to be set and this may be accomplished with a quick return to recent, lower levels. For the future, not this week, a distant and higher target is at $.7826.

The NY natural gas market rallied impressively but then sold off last week. The (Sept.) NG closed (+$.2630) higher for last week, at $3.303. As forecast in Plazaview, there was a return of buyers and higher prices resulted but the USA's current summer weather is fundamentally discouraging buyers. During the past six weeks, NG has been building a price base to go higher. As described in the prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom and current rallies confirm this. Buyers will eventually take the (Sept.) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.845 and $5.645. The December and March NG contracts offer a better time span for buyers.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 8-27-2001 (S&P starts at 1184.93)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices were rallied higher by impatient buyers, however, the S&P 500's critical 1200 level remained a barrier, all as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 closed up for the week, at 1184.93. Also, the Dow 30 closed up for the week, at 10,423.17. The S&P 500 is still above this year's low of twenty-one weeks ago but as of last week, it was down by (- 10.25%) for this year.

As previously described in Plazaview, the U.S.A's stock market indices remain in a major correction phase but the long term trend is clearly rising. The current market is testing for a bottom, before renewing the upward trend. This is a slow and gradual progression. Trend following market rallies can be expected but the incomplete correction cycle remains and the potential risk is to retest this year's April lows. This week is similar to the previous week, there is a potential for the markets to attract more impatient capital with follow through buying. The 1200 level of the S&P's cash index is the pivot point of resistance. Eventually, the markets will proceed lower, to test the April lows.

Last week the (Sept) T-bond was volatile and it finished lower as forecast in Plazaview. As the (Sept) contract nears expiration, focus turns to the (Dec) T-bond. The (Dec) Bond moved down last week, to close at 104.8/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and the (Dec) contract is trending to a higher price target at 105.8/32. Late buyers are still discovering the Bond but it is now vulnerable to another pull back, triggered by earlier buyers' profit taking. The (Dec) Bond has a lower target of 101.13. In any event, the Bond is rising and eventually, to higher targets. The yield rate of the cash Bond closed up last Friday, at 5.443%. The yield rate is now close to a level of support but this will eventually fail. It is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index found some support and closed (+.35) marginally higher at 113.29 for the week. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have made its top and it is beginning to correct to lower levels. This week the Dollar has potential for backing up to higher levels as its recent decline has made good progress but a pause is due. The next lower target is at 111.38. The next upper target is at 117.18.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index resumed downward last week. As of last Friday's close, the CRB index was at 199.55. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will continue moving lower but at current levels, a temporary and minor rise is possible. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) traded lower before moving higher last week, as forecast in Plazaview. As the (Sept) contract nears expiration, focus turns to (Dec). Last week, the ( Dec) CO closed higher, at $26.79. This week, CO begins at the upper end of a sideways price trend. CO needs to reestablish its direction as it is drifting sideways, with conflicting trends. CO is in a trading range with an upper target of $27.88, and a lower target at $24.73.

The NY gasoline market reversed direction and rallied higher last week.. Anticipating the U.S.A's long weekend holiday at the end of this month, inventory buyers pressured the price upwards in CO as well as HU. Rolling out of (Sept) and turning focus to the (Dec) contract, HU closed higher, at $.7353. This week, direction needs to be reestablished as HU is trending up and down in a sideways pattern. It begins this week at the upper end of its sideways price range. There is an upper target at $.765 and a lower target at $.6931. After the nearby end of the U.S.A's summer holiday, HU prices will have diminishing support.

The NY heating oil market followed crude oil, reversed direction and rallied higher last week. Rolling out of (Sept) and turning focus to the (Dec) contract, HO closed up for the week, at $.7627. As previously described in Plazaview, HO may attempt to rally higher but that will be unsustainable as it has not yet established a price base. A distant and higher target is at $.8264 but not for this week. This week, HO is at the upper end of its current trading range and a breakout will occur but this is more likely to the downside, unless crude oil has another rally.

The NY natural gas market collapsed, moving in the opposite direction of the other energy markets. The (Sept) contract nears expiration and focus turns to the (Dec) NG contract, it closed lower for last week, at $3.30. During the past nine weeks, the (Dec) NG has been building a price base to go higher. As described in prior weeks' Plazaview, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom. There is still some downward risk but buyers will soon take the (Dec) contract higher, to immediate targets of $3.396, $4.336 and $5.354. The December and March NG contracts offer a better time span for this winter.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-3-2001 (S&P starts at 1133.58)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices attempted to rally but failed and traded lower. As forecast since (April and 5/21/01) in Plazaview, the markets have returned to the year's lowest levels. The S&P 500 closed down for the week, at 1133.58. The Dow 30 closed down for the week, at 9949.75. Last week the S&P 500 finished very near this year's (April) weekly low on close of 1128.43 and as of last week, it was down by (- 14.14%) for this year.

As previously described in Plazaview, the U.S.A's stock market indices have been in a major correction phase but the long term trend is clearly rising. Last week's selling action nearly completes the expected return to this year's lowest levels of late March. Some additional selling may be unfinished but a rebounding rally is now due and this (may) be the initial turning for the market. The market's low point is now tested but not yet proven. Cash reserves should remain as such until the market bottom is proven and the trend resumes its upward direction. This is a slow and gradual process. There are several stages of bottom completion and turning of the market. The first stage from here requires a market bounce. There is overhead resistance at higher levels, the 1200 level of the S&P's cash index is the first point of resistance.

Last week the (Dec) T-bond moved mostly higher and also hit the (105.8/32) target as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec) Bond closed higher last week, at 105.10/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and late buyers are pressing the Bond higher but it is now due for a temporary pull back to lower levels. This portends well for the stock market to rally, soon. The (Dec) Bond has a potential, lower target at 101.13. The yield rate of the cash Bond moved lower as forecast in Plazaview, to close at 5.368%. The yield rate is still holding above a level of support and if this holds, the rate will rise this week but eventually, the support will fail. The yield rate is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086%.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index held again at a level of support and closed nearly unchanged for the week, at 113.27. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have made its top and it is beginning to correct to lower levels. This week the Dollar has potential for backing up to higher levels as its recent decline has made good progress but as forecast in Plazaview, a pause is due. The next lower target is at 111.38. The next upper target is at 117.18.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished with a minor rise of (0.08) last week, as forecast in Plazaview. As of last Friday's close, the CRB index was at 199.63. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will continue moving lower but at current levels, a temporary and minor rise is possible. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) broke out of and above its sideways trend last week, also hitting the upper target of $27.88 (Dec) as forecast in Plazaview. The ( Dec) CO closed higher, at $27.34. This week, CO begins in a now seemingly higher trending market but it is not convincing. CO may be inclined to continue last week's break out of a sideways trend but it appears more likely to be volatile and sideways directed. CO has lower targets waiting at $26.73, $26.48, and $24.73.

The NY gasoline market was volatile as it rallied higher last week. Inventory demand and speculation, before the U.S.A's long weekend holiday, pushed the price upwards. The (Dec) HU closed higher, at $.7465. This week, there will begin falling demand as the summer's peak usage subsides. While HU has been trending higher since June, the pattern is now suspect. HU begins this week at the upper end of its current price range. Failing rallies are likely to develop. The market has already failed to reach an upper target at $.765 but lower targets now await at $.7163 and $.6931.

The NY heating oil market has followed crude oil's rise since July. Last week, the (Dec) HO contract followed CO's direction again and after a volatile week, HO closed higher for the week, at $.7829. The (Dec) HO has a higher target at $.8264. This week, HO has good potential to rise further because of its upward trend and last week's breakout but CO appears less upwardly inclined and this may be a mitigating factor.

The NY natural gas market fell lower, last week, moving in the opposite direction, compared with the other energy markets. The (Dec) NG contract closed down (-$0.26) for last week, at $3.04 but the price consolidated for most of the week. During the past ten weeks, the (Dec) NG has been building a good price base to move higher. Last week's selling is likely to be matched by a reversal, with buyers returning this week. NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom, as forecast for the past ten weeks in Plazaview. Buyers will soon take interest and the (Dec) contract will move higher, to immediate targets of $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-10-2001 (S&P starts at 1085.78)

Last week the U.S. stock market's major indices attempted to rally for a second week but failed again and additional selling moved the market lower as forecast in the prior week. The S&P 500 traded to the year's lowest level and closed near its low for the year and the week, at 1085.78. The Dow 30 also closed down for the week, at 9605.85. For this year, the S&P 500 ended last week down by (- 17.76%). As forecast in Plazaview since (April and 5/21/01), the markets have now returned to the year's lowest levels.

As previously described in Plazaview, the U.S.A's stock market indices have been in a major correction phase but this is temporary, the long term trend is clearly rising. The continued selling action of last week, fully tested the year's previous low point. Additional selling from here will be excessive and a rebounding rally is now due. This (may) be the initial turning point for the market, the market's low point is now tested but not yet proven. Cash reserves should remain as such until the market bottom is proven and the upward trend resumes its direction. This is a slow and gradual process. There are several stages of bottom completion and turning of the market. The first stage from here requires a market rebound. There are several points of overhead resistance at higher levels, the 1200 level of the S&P's cash index is the first major point of resistance.

Last week the (Dec) T-bond began moving lower but stock market selling spooked cash back into the T-bond. However, the (Dec) Bond gave back its gains and closed unchanged last week, at 105.10/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend and late buyers will not support the current level of the Bond for much longer. The Bond is now due for a temporary pull back to lower levels. For the second week, this portends well for the stock market to rally, soon. The (Dec) Bond has a potential, lower target at 101.13.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond held above its support level and the rate moved slightly higher last week, to close at 5.39%. The yield rate has been holding above a key level of support but this week or soon, the support will fail. The yield rate is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U. S. Dollar's cash index held again at a level of support and as forecast in Plazaview, it closed slightly higher for the week, at 113.86. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has been playing out a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually correcting to lower levels. This week the Dollar still has potential for backing up to higher levels as its recent decline has made good progress but a pause is due. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target will be at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a lower level. As of last Friday's close, the CRB index was at 198.50. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will continue moving lower but at current levels, a temporary and minor rise is possible. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) moved sideways for most of last week and then flared higher at the end of the week, as forecast in the prior week's issue of Plazaview. The ( Dec) CO closed higher, at $28.19. This week, CO is in a upward trending market with potential for continued advancement. The (Dec) CO is likely to reach higher targets of $29., and $30. On a correction but not this week, CO has lower targets waiting for the (Dec) contract at $27.10, $26.48, $26.19 and $24.73.

The NY gasoline market was volatile, moving sideways for most of last week and then it accelerated higher, breaking out of its upper range limitation. The (Dec) HU closed higher, at $.7669. The high for the week hit the Plazaview forecast target of $.765. This week, HU is in an upward trend, originated in June. Due to the breakout rally of the prior week, HU is now likely to work its way higher but this week should bring a trading range of consolidation. Not this week but later, lower targets will await at $.7323, $.7246, $.7163 and $.6931.

The NY heating oil market consolidated for most of last week and then boiled higher in the last two days. The (Dec) HO contract closed up for last week, as forecast in Plazaview, and HO closed at $.8132. This week, HO has good potential to rise further because of its upward trend. The (Dec) HO has a higher target at $.8264. But, some consolidation is likley at current levels. On a correction, lower targets await at $.7778 and $.7541.

The NY natural gas market reversed direction and rose out of its consolidation last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The (Dec) NG contract closed up (+$0.055) for last week, at $3.095. During the past eleven weeks, the (Dec) NG has been building a good price base to move higher. NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom, as forecast for the past eleven weeks in Plazaview. While a retest of the base may hit the lower target of (Dec) $2.995, buyers will soon take interest. The (Dec) contract will move higher, to immediate targets of $3.14, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-17-2001 (S&P starts at 1092.54)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A's New York financial center was attacked by two, hijacked commercial aircraft. These were the horrendous acts of fanatical cowards, cloaked in a crude and warped philosophy of righteousness. For the innocent thousands of people, our colleagues, friends, and all who are lost or grieving, this evil will be destroyed.

Last week saw very little change in the USA's stock markets. Trading was considerably limited by the events of last Tuesday. The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range, near the year's lowest level but closed up for the week, at 1092.54. The Dow 30 closed almost unchanged for the week, at 9605.51. For this year, the S&P 500 ended above its low but still down, by (- 17.25%).

As previously described in Plazaview, the U.S.A's stock market indices have been in a major correction phase but this is temporary, the long term trend is clearly rising. Additional selling from here will be excessive and a rebounding rally is now due. This (may) be the initial turning point for the market. The market's low point is now tested but not yet proven. Cash reserves should remain as such until the market bottom is proven and the upward trend resumes its direction. This is a slow and gradual process. There are several stages of bottom completion and turning of the market. The first stage from here requires a market rebound. There are several points of overhead resistance at higher levels. The 1200 level of the S&P's cash index is the first major point of resistance.

Last week the (Dec) T-bond moved up and down as it responded to the immediate uncertainties created by the closed stock market. By the end of the week, investors moved cash back into the relative safety of the T-bond. The (Dec) Bond closed higher, last week, at 106.4/32. This week, the Bond is in a rising trend but buyers will not support the current level of the Bond for much longer. The Bond is now due for a temporary pull back to lower levels. For the third week, this portends well for the stock market to rally, soon. The (Dec) Bond has a potential, lower target at 101.13.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond held above its support level and the rate moved slightly higher, last week, to close at 5.435%. The yield rate has been holding above a key level of support and now it remains to be seen if support will fail. If the yield rate holds or rises this week, it will be moving into a sideways pattern. Eventually, the rate is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved slightly lower, closing for the week, at 112.27. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually correcting to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a downward correction phase but uncertain fundamentals may bring upward volatility. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a higher level. As of last Friday's close, the CRB index rose by (+1.56) to settle at 200.06. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index will continue moving lower but at current levels, a temporary and minor rise is possible. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

The NYMEX energy markets traded normally on Monday of last week, with an electronic system session at the end of the week.

Crude oil (NY) moved slightly lower and last week, the ( Dec) CO closed down, at $27.89. This week, CO is in an upward trending market but political fundamentals are an uncertain and increasing factor. Sudden volatility may develop, as a result. The (Dec) CO is likely to reach higher targets of $29. and $30. On a correction, CO has lower targets waiting for the (Dec) contract at $27.10, $26.48, $26.19 and $24.73.

The NY gasoline market dropped slightly lower and last week, the (Dec) HU settled down, at $.7599. This week, HU is in an upward trend, originated in June. HU is less likely to work its way higher but this week should bring a trading range of consolidation. Not this week but later, lower targets await at $.7323, $.7246, $.7163 and $.6931.

The NY heating oil market dropped slightly lower and last week, the (Dec) HO contract closed down, at $.8059. This week, HO has good potential to rise further but a pull back may result if CO corrects lower. The (Dec) HO has a higher target at $.8264. With political uncertainties, this week will be news driven. Consolidation is likely at current levels. On a correction, lower targets still await at $.7778 and $.7541.

The NY natural gas market tested the lower target of (Dec) $2.995 as forecast in Plazaview. With only one day of trading, the (Dec) NG contract closed down last week, at $2.994. During the past twelve weeks, the (Dec) NG has been building a good price base to move higher. NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom, as forecast for the past twelve weeks in Plazaview. Buyers will soon take interest and the (Dec) contract will move higher, to immediate targets of $3.14, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 9-24-2001 (S&P starts at 965.80)

On 9/11/01, the U.S.A.'s New York financial center was attacked by two, hijacked commercial aircraft. Fundamental influences from late breaking news developments may suddenly change the direction of all financial markets this week and in the following weeks. Volatility in all markets is now a more uncertain factor.

Last week was the first week of market response to the (9/11/01) hijacking of two commercial airliners and the horrific massacre of thousands of lives at New York City's World Trade Center. The markets understandably moved into a defensive position and the USA's stock markets declined. The S&P 500 traded down to a level not seen since 10/1998 and closed the week, at 965.80. The Dow 30 closed down for the week, at 8235.81. For this year, the S&P 500 reached a new low, down by (- 26.85%).

As described in Plazaview, the U.S.A.'s stock market indices have been in a major correction phase but this is temporary and the long term trend is clearly rising. The stock market in the USA and the world are now inclined to be defensive until political uncertainty, caused by the recent terrorist attack, is settled. Although the market indices are oversold, defensive cash reserves should remain as such until the market bottom is proven and the upward trend resumes its direction. There are several stages of bottom completion and turning of the market. The first stage now requires an initial market rebound.

Last week the (Dec.) T-bond moved down in a response to the immediate uncertainties created by the terrorist attack. By the end of the week, the Bond stabilized near its low for the week. The (Dec.) Bond closed down, last week, at 103.7/32. This week, aside from the uncertain fundamentals, the Bond has very good prospects to rally, possibly up to a target of 105.13/32. However, these are unusual days and participants should remember that the (Dec.) Bond also has a potential, lower target at 101.13.

The yield rate of the cash T-bond remained in a range, above its support level and the rate moved higher, last week, to close at 5.586%. The yield rate has been holding above a key level of support and now it is due for a decline. Eventually, the rate is gradually moving down, to a target of 5.297% and possibly 5.086% or lower.

Last week the U.S. Dollar's cash index moved slightly higher, closing for the week, at 112.93. As previously described in Plazaview, the Dollar has performed a long, top forming pattern since early October of last year. Since July, the Dollar appears to have established its top and since then, it is gradually correcting to lower levels. This week, the Dollar is in a downward correction phase but uncertain fundamentals may bring upward volatility. The next upper target is at 117.18. The next lower target is at 111.38.

The broad commodity market indicator and relative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index finished last week at a lower level. As of last Friday's close, the CRB index settled at 194.79. The CRB has been trending lower since it peaked in October of last year. The index can be expected to continue moving lower, as commercial aircraft usage is now depressed, but a temporary rise is otherwise due. In time, the CRB will move down to test the levels of two years ago, a target at approximately 190.

Crude oil (NY) spiked higher and then fell precipitously lower, last week. The ( Dec) CO closed down, at $26.26. This week, CO is in a trading range with sideways direction the likely result until current, world political uncertainties are resolved. Sudden volatility may develop this week.

The NY gasoline market spiked higher and then it dropped last week. The (Dec) HU settled down, at $.7101. This week, HU looks very similar to the prospects for CO. HU is less likely to work its way higher again but this week should bring a trading range of consolidation.

The NY heating oil market rose briefly and then it dropped much lower, last week. The (Dec) HO contract closed down, at $.7269. This week, HO is falling in a downward trend but a bounce may come this week or later as it is falling into an oversold condition. With the political uncertainties in the Middle East, this week's HO market will be news driven.

The NY natural gas market tested lower targets again but stabilized at the end of the week. The (Dec) NG contract closed down last week, at $2.832. Aside from the current political events as they apply to the energy markets, NG is at or near the initial turning point of a price bottom, as described for the past thirteen weeks in Plazaview. Buyers will soon take interest and the (Dec) contract will move higher, to immediate targets of $2.977, $3.125, $3.30 $3.396, $4.336, and $5.354.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>