Plazaview.com

 Forecast Records - 4th Qtr. of 2002

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-7-2002 (S&P starts at 800.58)

Last week, the U.S. stock market became volatile to the up side, but the advance failed and the correction trend resumed its downward movement as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P traded down to 794.10 and up to 851.93, closing lower for the week, at 800.58. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was down by -45.50%.

This week, the long term trend, beyond the current market correction, continues to be up; the intermediate trend is still down. The U.S. stock market has completed the Plazaview forecasted retracement of its most recent advance and has been building a potential base. The market has good potential to advance from the current level of 800 (S&P 500) and regain the 825 to 850 range. This (March of 2000) selling trend has not yet ended but it is now ready for a pause and a rally, higher. The market is at a level of very good potential for upward volatility. Fundamentally, buyers will be drawn back to the stock market by great liquidity, capital parked in the Bond market. Beyond this week, positive media news developments are likely to develop, triggering stock buyers to regain a higher range of (S&P) 940 to 966. As previously described in Plazaview, individual components of the major indices have had unmet targets at lower levels and these are now about realized. Those components have restricted the market's potential. The market is now set to make the initial break, out of the March 2000 correction.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved in a consolidating range and closed down. The week's range was down to 108.23/32 and up to 111.30/32, closing 19/32 higher, at 110.7/32. This week begins with the Bond still overdue for a decline; potential risk is greater to the down side. Cash has moved out of the stock market and excessively into the Bond market. The Bond is highly vulnerable to sellers, waiting for renewed stock market opportunity. The T-bond will soon begin to reverse its upward direction, retrace some of its advance and move back down to at least 106.27. The top price is not in place but the Bond is overdue for more initial selling.

The U.S. dollar's cash index traded in a narrow range and closed (+.07) slightly higher, last week, at 107.60. This week, the dollar index remains poised to rebound. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, from an oversold condition. The current rebound phase is delayed, not yet trending higher but eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. A falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving and this appears to be in the making.

The Euro-Currency index moved in a narrowed range of .9907 to .9785 last week; by the end of last week, it closed down (-.0012), at .9792. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but after eight weeks, the market is still hesitating. EC is waiting for other markets to drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is still potential to briefly rise, back up to a target of 1.10151. This week, the EC has lower targets beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB moved down and closed (-3.10) lower, at 223.97. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a pull back, for a few weeks, has good potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination but it is now likely to retrace its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price was set back last week, as forecast in Plazaview. It ranged from $30.85 to 29.30 and closed (-.76) lower, at $29.52. This week, CO's price is again vulnerable to selling but a top price has not yet been set. CO is still trending higher but it is due for another price setback. On an expanding range to the downside, the cash market would go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await cash-CO, initially at $26.88 and then at $25.53.

The (NY-HU) gasoline market price was vulnerable to sellers, as forecast in Plazaview. The December HU ranged from $.814 to $.779 last week and closed down (-.90), at $.7857. This week, HU's price still has greater vulnerability to sellers. HU is seeking a top price in this area and the price is ready to turn down. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price moved down last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The December HO ranged from $.834 to $.794 and closed down -$.0201, at $.7987. This week, the HO market price is at the upper level of its current range, due for another pull back. The market has not found a price top but it is well advanced and primed to retrace some of its gains. A temporary pull-back could take it lower again, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching end of summer and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers with open interest in HO and the CO market, holding the price at already elevated levels.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price moved lower last week, as forecast in Plazaview. The December contract ranged from $4.395 to $3.95, closing -$.275 lower, at $3.969. NG begins this week on the tail of last week's decline, with further downside potential but the top price is not in place. With the current retracement to lower levels, comes increasing potential to recover and re-test the recent, interim top level.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-14-2002 (S&P starts at 835.32)

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved up with the good potential to advance as was forecast in Plazaview. The S&P traded down to 768.63 and up to 843.27, closing higher for the week, at 835.32. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved but down by -43.15%.

This week, the long term trend, beyond the current market correction, continues to be up; the intermediate trend is down. The U.S. stock market has completed the Plazaview forecasted retracement of its most recent advance and it now has a potential base to move higher. The market has good potential to continue last week's advance from the recent base level of 800 (S&P 500). It has regained the 825 to 850 range. The market is at a level of very good potential for more upward volatility. Fundamentally, buyers will be drawn back to the stock market by the excess liquidity of capital waiting in the Bond market. Beyond the current range, a higher range of (S&P) 940 to 966 will be the next objective. The market has good potential for another initial rally, out of the March 2000 correction's lows. But, the correction is not over and there is likely to be further testing of the lows.

Last week, at long last, the cash T-bond moved down, as forecast in Plazaview. The week's range was 111.22/32 to 108.14, closing lower, at 108.25/32. This week begins with the Bond prime for another decline. Cash has moved out of the stock market and excessively into the Bond market. Cash is looking for any sign to move back into the stock market. The Bond is less vulnerable to sellers, compared with last week but still vulnerable to further liquidation. The T-bond has not seen the last of buyers, they will return and cause the bond to rise again. Eventually, the market will retrace more of its advance and move back down to at least 106.27. The top price is not in place but the Bond is overdue for more initial selling.

The U.S. dollar's cash index remained in a narrow range and closed (-.35) slightly lower, last week, at 107.25. This week, the dollar index remains poised to rebound. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, from an oversold condition. The current rebound phase has been delayed, not yet trending higher but eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. More falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving and this appears to be in the making as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved in a sideways range for the eleventh week. It moved in range of .9765 to .9975, closing +.83 higher by the end of last week, at .9875. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is still hesitating. EC is waiting for other markets to drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is still potential to briefly rise, back up to a target of 1.10151. This week, the EC has lower targets beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB moved up and closed (+1.90) higher, at 225.87. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a pull back for a few weeks, has good potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination. More immediately, it is likely to move down, to retrace its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price moved lower again, as forecast in Plazaview but it recovered most of the loss. It ranged from $29.99 to $28.60 and closed (-.09) lower, at $29.43. This week, CO's price is again vulnerable to selling but the price top has not yet been set. CO is still trending higher but it is due for another price setback. On an expanding range to the downside, the cash market would go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await cash-CO, initially at $26.88 and then at $25.53.

The (NY-HU) December gasoline market price moved up to and below the prior week's range, trading from $.812 to $.773, last week and it closed nearly unchanged, up (+.0072), at $.7929. This week, HU's price still has vulnerability to sellers. HU will be vulnerable on each attempt to advance. The market is seeking a top in this area and the price is nearly ready to turn down except for the potential to test the top again. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price moved down last week, as forecast in Plazaview but recovered most of the week's loss. The December HO ranged from $.809 to $.78 and closed down
(-$.0018), at $.7969. This week, the HO market price is trading at the upper level of its current range, due for another pull back but not topped out. The market has not found a price top but it is trading in that area, primed to retrace some of its gains. A temporary pull-back could take it lower again, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching end of summer and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers with open interest in HO and the CO market, holding the price at elevated levels.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price moved in a wide range for a third week. The December contract moved down to $3.91 and back up to $4.35, closing +.367 higher, at $4.336. As forecast in Plazaview, although there was downside potential, the top price was not in place and there was potential to recover and re-test the recent, interim top level. This week, there still remains a potential to rally but any advance will become vulnerable to sellers.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-21-2002 (S&P starts at 884.39)

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved up as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P traded down to 828.37 and up to 886.68, closing +5.87% higher for the week, at 884.39. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its low point but down by -39.81%.

This week, the long term trend, beyond the current market correction, continues to be up and the intermediate trend has turned (marginally) upward. The market has potential for a continued rally but that is likely to fail. During the past two weeks, the S&P 500 advanced by 10.47%, from the recent base level of 800.58. If that rate continued every week, for a year, the market would advance by 272.22%, except for profit taking sellers. The market has a good base but it is now vulnerable to backing down, correcting the recent advance. The stock market can be easily spooked, promptly sending cash out of stocks and back to the bond market. The correction trend is not yet finished and there is good potential for another test of the (S&P 500) 835 to 800 area.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved down again, as forecast in Plazaview. The week's range was 108.22/32 to 103.3/32, closing (-4.4/32) lower, at 104.21/32. The market has now retraced and moved back down to "at least 106.27" as forecast in Plazaview.

This week begins with the Bond still moving lower. Although it has not hit bottom, the past two weeks' decline have been extreme enough to invite a rebound. Cash may be easily spooked out of the stock market and move back to the Bond. Compared with two weeks ago, the Bond is now less vulnerable to sellers but there is still potential for excess liquidation, causing the Bond to seek a lower level. The T-bond has not seen the last of buyers, they will return and cause the bond to rally again.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index remained in a steady range but as forecast in Plazaview, DX closed higher (+1.27), last week, at 108.52.

This week, the dollar index remains poised to continue higher. The dollar remains in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward but it has been narrowly range-bound. The current rebound phase has been delayed, not yet trending higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. More falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving and this appears to be in progress as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved down last week but remained in a sideways range of the past twelve weeks. EC moved in a range of .989 to .9699, closing (-.0156) lower by the end of last week, at .9719. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is still hesitating. EC is waiting for other markets to drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is a now remote potential to rise up to a target of 1.10151. This week, the EC is closer to forecasted targets, beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB backed up and closed (+2.79) higher, at 228.66. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a pull back for a few weeks, has good potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination. More immediately, it is likely to move down, to retrace its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price held its ground, in the upper range of the prior week. It ranged from $30.15 to $29.00 and closed (only +$.17) higher, at $29.60. This week, CO's price is again vulnerable to selling but the price top has not yet been set and a final rally is due; CO is still trending higher. On an expanding range to the downside, the cash market will eventually go to $26.88. More weeks of up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, lower targets await cash-CO, initially at $26.88 and then at $25.53.

The (NY-HU) December gasoline market price remained range-bound for a third week, moving between $.785 and $.815, last week. It closed up (+.0098), at $.8027. This week, HU's price has still existent vulnerability to sellers. HU will be vulnerable on each attempt to advance. The market is seeking a top in this area and the price is nearly prime to turn down. Now distant, lower prices await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price, last week, remained in the range of the prior three weeks. The December HO ranged from $.794 to $.818 and closed up (+$.0118), at $.8087. This week, the HO market price is trading at the upper level of its current range but the price has not reached its final top for this cycle. Except for the approaching cold of winter, after it makes a top, HO will be primed to retrace some of its gains. A temporary pull-back could take it down, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching winter and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers with open interest in HO and the CO markets.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price rallied above its prior four weeks' range. The December contract moved from $4.34 to $4.57, closing +$.126 higher, at $4.462. As forecast in Plazaview, there was potential to rally and the market reacted as expected. This week, there is far less potential and any further advance will be vulnerable to sellers. As with HO, while the approaching winter and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers with open interest in HO and the CO markets, the NG - Dec., market price is set to back down, at least to $4.336.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 10-28-2002 (S&P starts at 897.65)

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved in a narrow range. The S&P traded from 873.06 to 902.94, closing +01.50% higher for the week, at 897.65. As forecast in Plazaview, the market had comparatively limited potential for a continued rally. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its low point but down by (-38.90%).

This week, the long term trend, beyond the current market correction, continues to be up and the intermediate trend has recently turned (marginally) upward. The market has potential for a continued rally but it is still vulnerable to the remaining correction cycle. During the past three weeks, the S&P 500 advanced by 12.12%, from the recent base level of 800.58. Last week's advance reduced the incline but if the rate continued every week, for a year, the S&P 500 would advance by 210.08%, except for profit taking sellers. Although the market is rising out of a deep correction, a further advance is vulnerable to returning back down to the base, with targets of (S&P 500) 842 and 804.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved down but rebounded, as forecast in Plazaview, to recover most of its losses for the week. The week's range was 102.13/32 to 104.31/32, closing (+10/32) lower, at 104.11/32. The market has now retraced and moved back down to "at least 106.27" as forecast in Plazaview.

This week begins with the Bond still moving lower but it has not hit bottom and the recent decline has been extreme enough to invite a rebound. Compared with three weeks ago, the Bond is now less vulnerable to sellers but excess liquidation is possible, causing the Bond to temporarily seek lower levels. The T-bond has fallen sharply and buyers will soon rally, if not this week.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index remained in a steady and narrowing range. The price changed (-.60) lower, closing last week, at 107.92.

This week, the dollar index remains poised to continue higher. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward but it has lingered in a narrow, holding pattern. The current rebound phase has been delayed, not yet trending higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. More falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving and this appears to be in progress as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index remained narrowly range bound, in the sideways range of the past thirteen weeks. EC moved in a range of .9688 to .98, closing (+.0043) higher by the end of last week, at .9762. The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is hesitating. EC is waiting for other markets to convincingly drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is a remote potential to rise up to a target of 1.10151. This week, the EC is closer to forecasted targets, beginning at .9313.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB was unchanged (-0.01) lower, at 228.65. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a few weeks' pull back has good potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination. More immediately, it is likely to move down, to retrace some of its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price fell substantially downward; it was vulnerable as forecast in Plazaview. It ranged from $29.54 to $26.90 (reaching the Plazaview cash target at $26.88) and closed (-$2.55) lower, at $27.05. This week, CO's price is less vulnerable to selling but the trend is now changed to the down side and rallies will become vulnerable. More up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, CO is moving lower to sideways as it will attempt to find stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU) December gasoline market price broke down as forecast in Plazaview. HU-Z moved from $.8029 to $.741, last week. It closed down (-.0428), at $.7599. This week, HU's price is still vulnerable to sellers. HU will be vulnerable on each attempt to advance. The market has found a top and the price is moving from that. Now closer, lower prices still await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price, last week, slipped from its vulnerable position, as forecast in Plazaview. The December HO ranged from $.808 to $.7315 and closed far down (-$.0736), at $.7351. This week, the HO market price is still vulnerable to the downside but now, it is potentially volatile. Except for the approaching cold of winter, HO is set to further retrace some of its January - September gains. Another pull-back could take HO further down, to cash market targets of $.65 and $.5975. The approaching winter and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers with open interest in HO and the CO markets.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price rallied above its prior week's range but then, it collapsed. As forecast in Plazaview, there was far less potential to rally and any further advance was vulnerable to sellers; the NG - Dec., market price was set to back down, at least to $4.336 and it did. The December contract moved from $4.61 to $4.15, closing (-$.274) lower, at $4.188. This week, as with HO, the approaching winter and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains remaining buyers with open interest in HO and the CO markets. Otherwise, this market has entered a new, downward trend.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-4-2002 (S&P starts at 900.96)

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved slightly below and above the prior week's range. The S&P traded from 867.91 to 907.44, closing only +3.31 higher for the week, at 900.96. As forecast in Plazaview, the market's upside potential was limited by the remaining correction cycle and the great extent of its recent, volatile advance. By the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its low point but down by (-38.68%).

This week, the long term trend, beyond the current market correction, continues to be up and the intermediate trend has recently turned (marginally) upward. The market still has potential to extend the recent advance but it remains vulnerable to the March 2000, down trend. During the past four weeks, the S&P 500 advanced from a base level of 800.58 for the first two weeks but has remained static during the most recent, past two weeks. Four weeks ago, the market began to rise from the depths of a deep correction. An initial base is in place but any further advance is vulnerable. The market will eventually back down to regroup and test near the base level, with lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 and 804.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved mid-range and above the prior week's range. As forecast in Plazaview, buyers were due to rally the Bond, higher. The week's range was 103.25/32 to 106.4/32, closing (+25/32) higher, at 105.5/32.

This week begins with the Bond in an initial downtrend but the potential for returning to the upper levels of four weeks ago is very real. The recent decline was extreme enough to invite a rebound to 110.7/32 or at least 108.25/32. Some selling is always a potential but that will only result in temporary drifting, a sideways direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index remained in a steady and fairly narrowing range. The price changed downward (-1.84), closing down last week, at 106.08.

This week, the dollar index remains poised to continue higher. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend, within an intermediate term, downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward but it has lingered in a narrow, holding pattern. The current rebound phase has been delayed, not yet trending higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. A falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving upward and although delayed by early stages, this appears to be in constructive progress as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved up, last week, to the upper level of the past thirteen weeks's sideways range. EC moved in a range of .9729 to 1.003, closing (+.0209) higher by the end of last week, at .9971. As forecast in Plazaview, there was a remote potential to rise up to a target of 1.10151 and the market has taken that direction.

The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but since then it has moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of the overextended price advance is overdue but the market is hesitating. EC is waiting for other markets to convincingly drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, there is an improved potential to rise up to the forecast target of 1.10151. This week, the EC is closer to the upper target; the lower target of .9313 will have to wait.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. Last week, the CRB closed marginally higher (+0.32) lower, at 228.97. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a few weeks' pull back has good potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination. More immediately, it is likely to move down, to retrace some of its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO) December price held its ground last week, after falling sharply in the prior week. It ranged from $26.53 to $27.56 and closed slightly (+$.08) higher, at $27.13. This week, CO's price is inclined to rise toward $29.60, rebounding from the decline of two weeks ago, but the trend is now changed to the down and rallies will become vulnerable as they rise. More up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. Eventually, CO is moving lower to sideways as it will eventually attempt to find stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU) December gasoline market price broke further down, still vulnerable to sellers as forecast in Plazaview but the market recovered. HU-Z moved down to $.725 and up to $.774, last week, closing slightly higher (+$.0046), at $.7645. This week, HU's price is in a new downtrend but the market is likely to attempt another rally, to $.8027. HU will be vulnerable on each attempt to advance, due to the new downtrend. The market has found a top and the price is moving from that. Eventually, not this week, lower prices still await the NY- HU cash market at $.60 and $.51.

The (NY-HO) heating oil price, last week, held its ground and partially recovered, after the decline of the previous week. The December HO ranged from $.722 to $.7565 and closed up (+$.0065), at $.7416. This week, the HO market price is in a new down-trend. Except for the approaching cold of winter, HO is set to retrace further downward, some of its January - September gains. More immediately, HO-Z will rebound from the decline of two weeks ago and move toward a target of $.8087.

The (NY-NG) natural gas price rallied last week but it collapsed, downward. As forecast in Plazaview, this market has entered a new, downward trend. The December contract moved up to $4.44 and down to $4.035, closing (-$.128) lower, at $4.06. This week, as with HO, the approaching winter and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains remaining buyers with open interest in HO and the CO markets. Otherwise, this market has entered a new, downward trend and it is moving hesitatingly in that direction.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-11-2002 (S&P starts at 894.74)

Last week, the U.S. stock market moved up but failed to hold its advance as forecast in Plazaview. The S&P 500 traded up to 925.66 and down to 891.62, closing (-6.22) lower for the week, at 894.74. As forecast in Plazaview, the market's upside potential was limited again by the remaining correction cycle and the great extent of its recent, volatile advance. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its current low point but down by (-39.10%).

This week, the long term trend continues to be up and the intermediate trend is (marginally) upward but the March 2000, down trending correction is still in effect. During the past five weeks, the S&P 500 advanced from a base level of 800.58 for the first two weeks but it has remained static during the past three weeks. Five weeks ago, the market rose from the depths of a deep correction. An initial and fortunate base is now in place but the current advance is vulnerable and the market will fall. The market will eventually move back down to regroup and test near the base level, with lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 and 804.

Last week, the cash T-bond returned to the top levels of some weeks ago, as forecast in Plazaview, hitting the initial target of 108.25/32. The week's range was from 103.18/32 to 109.15/32, closing (+4.4/32) higher, at 109.9/32.

This week begins with the Bond in a renewed uptrend. The Plazaview forecasted potential for the Bond returning to the upper levels of five weeks ago is still very real. The recent decline of four and five weeks ago, was extreme enough to invite a rebound and the nearest minimum target is 110.7/32. Some selling is a potential as the market recovers from last week's volatile reversal but that will result in temporarily drifting into a sideways, top seeking direction.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved down, near the lower end of its consolidating range of nearly five months. The price changed downward (-1.58), closing at 104.5.

This week, the dollar index is critically poised to hold at its lower range or rally higher. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend, within an intermediate term, downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward but it lingers in a holding pattern. The current rebound phase has been static, not yet trending higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. Last week's strong rise of the Bond was another confirmation that a falling Bond and rising yield rate may be needed to get the dollar moving upward. Although delayed in its early stages, the dollar remains in a constructive, price base building progress as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved up, last week, ranging from .9935 to 1.0148, closing (+.0161) higher by the end of last week, at 1.0132. The EC moved sideways for eleven weeks and as forecast early in Plazaview, there was a remote potential to rise back up to a target of 1.0151. The market has taken that upward direction for two weeks, nearly hitting the forecast target.

The EC had been steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but then, it moved sideways. A gradual unwinding of that January to July price advance is overdue but the market is hesitating. EC is waiting for other markets to convincingly drop, including the Bond and CO. While the EC continues moving sideways, it is now retesting it top and will rise up to the forecast target of 1.0151. This week, the EC is closer to that upper target and near the end of its current advance. A sustained advance is unlikely, buyers will fail to hold up the price. The lower target of .9313 will come into focus as the market finds the top has been reached, near 1.0151.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. However, as also forecast, the index is likely to retrace some of its recent gains and last week, the CRB closed lower (-1.31), at 227.66. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a few weeks' pull back has good potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination. More immediately, it is likely to move down, to retrace some of its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-H) March price dropped again last week. It ranged from $26.15 to $24.35 and closed (-$2.57) lower, at $24.56. This week, CO's price is in a downtrend but now more inclined to rebound, toward $28.30. Rallies will be vulnerable but selling will be limited and short-lived. More up and down movement will continue to probe for a top price. After rising, CO will eventually seek stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU-H) March gasoline market failed to rally. Instead, the price collapsed further, still vulnerable to sellers and the new downtrend as forecast in Plazaview. HU-H moved up to $.74 and down to $.6891, last week, closing lower (-.0683), at $.6962.

This week, HU's price is in a new downtrend but further selling is now limited to temporary excess and the market is more likely to rebound, toward $.80. HU remains vulnerable on each rally, due to the new downtrend but the market has already moved excessively from its top.

The (NY-HO-H) March heating oil price, last week, moved lower. The March HO ranged from $.717 to $.6706 and closed down (-$.071), at $.6706.

This week, the HO market price is in a new down-trend but further selling is limited to excess. The recent decline and approaching cold of winter will restore some HO's price loss. HO-H will temporarily rebound from the recent decline and move toward a target above $.75.

The (NY-NG-H) March natural gas price declined last week but limited range, compared with the other energy markets. As forecast in Plazaview, the NG market has entered a new downtrend. NG-H moved up to $3.999 and down to $3.834, closing (-$.16) lower, at $3.90.

This week, as with HO, the approaching winter and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains remaining buyers with open interest in HO and the CO markets. Otherwise, this market's new downtrend is moving NG-H in that direction, toward $3.60.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-18-2002 (S&P starts at 909.83)

Last week, the U.S. stock market traded mostly lower than the prior week, then it rallied to close higher for the end of last week. The S&P 500 traded down to 872.05 and up to 910.21, closing (+15.09) up for the week, at 909.83. As described previously in Plazaview, the market's upside potential was limited by the remaining correction cycle and the extent of its recent, volatile advance. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its correction low but down by (-38.08%).

This week, the long term trend continues to be up and the immediate trend is upward but the March 2000, down trending correction is not ended. A potentially favorable base is now in place but the rally of five and six weeks ago, remains vulnerable. The market is at a critical turning point. There is potential for extending the advance of five and six weeks ago, that would initially erode the March 2000, correction. The market is now almost equally inclined to rally or regroup at lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 and 804. In more time than this week, both directions may result. The Bond market is indicating wide ranging volatility; stocks may perform accordingly.

Last week, the cash T-bond rose higher than the prior week but failed to hold that limited advance and moved down. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond returned to its upper levels, attaining the 110.7/32 target. The week's range was from 110.9/32 to 105.26/32, closing (-2.9/32) lower, at 107.0/32.

This week begins with the Bond in a renewed uptrend. The Plazaview forecast potential for the Bond returning to the upper levels of five weeks ago, is still in effect. The Bond has moved into a wide range. This week begins at the mid-point of the Bond's 112 to 102 range of the past six weeks. The renewed trend indicates further upward potential but the Bond is drifting sideways.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up. It was still holding its position, near the lower end of its consolidating range of nearly five months. The price changed up (+.54), closing at 104.5.

This week, the dollar index remains critically poised to hold at its lower range or rally higher. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend, within an intermediate term, downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward but it lingers in a holding pattern. The current rebound phase has been static, not yet trending higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. Although delayed in its early stages, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved higher, reaching the target of 1.0151 last week and the advance did not hold as forecast in Plazaview. The EC ranged from 1.0171 to 1.0014, closing (-.0038) lower by the end of last week, at 1.0094. The EC has moved sideways for weeks and it finally hit Plazaview's early forecasted target.

The EC for this week is positioned to move lower, after steadily rising since January of this year. In July, it turned down, beginning to correct an overextended advance but it has moved sideways since then. A gradual unwinding of that January to July price advance is now back in focus. The EC has been waiting for other markets to convincingly drop, including the Bond and CO. The EC is at the end of its current advance. A sustainable advance is unlikely, buyers will find less interest in supporting the price. The lower target of .9313 is now an early objective.

As forecast in Plazaview, the comparative inflation measurement of the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index is in upward motion. However, as also forecast, the index is likely to retrace some of its recent gains and last week, the CRB closed marginally down (-.53), at 227.13. This week begins with the CRB still in an upward trend, started in November of 2001, but a few weeks' pull back has delayed potential. As forecast in Plazaview, the CRB is eventually moving higher and 251 will be the target of that destination. More immediately, it is likely to move down, to retrace some of its recent gains.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-H) March price held near the prior week's low, last week. It dropped to $23.70 but recovered to $25.02, closing only (-$.19) lower, at $24.37.

This week, CO's price is in a downtrend but now more inclined to rebound, toward $28. A choppy market may result as rallies will be vulnerable but selling will be more limited and short-lived. A rebound is due and it will eventually probe the top price. In more weeks of time, after rising higher, CO will seek stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU-H) March gasoline held near the prior week's low, after attempting to rally. As forecast in Plazaview, further selling was limited. HU-H moved up to $.708 and down to $.678, last week, closing (-.0103) lower, at $.6859.

This week, HU's price is in a new downtrend but first, now more inclined to rebound, toward $.7882. HU remains vulnerable on each rally, due to the down trending cycle but the market is near a bottom and a rally will be the result.

The (NY-HO-H) March heating oil price moved in a consolidating, narrow range of $.655 to $.6701 last week. It closed nearly unchanged, down (-$.0005), at $.6701.

This week, the HO market price is in a new downtrend but further selling is limited to excess and HO is ready to rebound, higher. The recent decline and approaching cold of winter will restore some HO's price loss. HO-H will temporarily rebound from the recent decline and move toward a target above $.76.

The (NY-NG-H) March natural gas price held its ground last week. NG-H moved down to $3.78 and up to $4.02, closing (+$.076) higher, at $3.976.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains remaining buyers in the HO and CO markets and may cause another test of the $4.25 top area. Otherwise, this market is down trending, moving NG-H sideways and lower, in the direction of $3.17 and $2.97.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 11-25-2002 (S&P starts at 930.55)

Last week, the U.S. stock market began by moving lower but turned around and rallied, higher by the end of the week. The S&P 500 traded down to 893.09 and up to 937.28, closing up (+20.72) for the week, at 930.55. As described previously in Plazaview, the market had a favorable base from which to rise and the market was at a critical turning point of potentially eroding the March 2000, correction. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its correction low but down by (-36.66%).

This week, the long term trend continues to be up, the immediate trend has turned upward and the March 2000, down trending correction is eroding with the current advance. An increasingly favorable price base, of seven weeks ago, is in place but the current advance remains vulnerable. The market is inclined to rally now but it is likely to regroup later, at lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804. The Bond market is indicating range bound volatility; stocks may perform accordingly.

Last week, the cash T-bond remained inside the prior week's range, ending down for the week. As forecast in Plazaview, the Bond is drifting sideways in its range. The week's range was from 108.17/32 to 105.3/32, closing (-1.21/32) lower, at 105.11/32.

This week begins with the Bond in a renewed uptrend, with a developing downtrend in conflict. The Bond has moved into a wide range and this week starts below the mid-point of the Bond's 112 to 102 range of the past seven weeks. The renewed uptrend indicates further upward potential but the Bond is drifting sideways, under the pressure of that developing counter-trend. A lower Bond is likely by the end of this week.

New, resumed forecast: Yield rate of the 30 year T-bond -

The 30 year Bond yield rate finished last week at 5.016%.

The Bond yield rate hit a low of 4.606% on September 24 of this year. The rate is currently rising. The yield rate is nearly seven months into a range from 5.872% to 4.606%. This week begins at 5.016%, rising from the low end of the range. There is good potential to proceed higher, to 5.068%; eventually, 5.239% is the upper target. The increasing rate is not without a barrier and a still existent downtrend, begun in January of 2000, keeps the rate contained in its range. The low end targets of 4.789% and 4.709% will be revisited later. For the foreseeable future, the downtrend appears to have established the lowest level at 4.606%. Confirmation of this maximum low will require time and events to end the downtrend; that process is underway.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved up, in the direction forecast by Plazaview. It held its critical position, near the low end in a consolidating range of nearly five months in time. The price changed up (+1.62), closing at 106.12.

This week, the dollar index remains critically poised to hold at its lower range or rally higher. The dollar is in a long-term upward trend, within an intermediate term downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, mostly consolidating near the depth of its correction phase; it lingers in a holding pattern. The current rebound phase has been static, not yet trending higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved lower, in the direction forecast by Plazaview. The EC ranged from 1.014 to .9963, closing (-.0125) lower by the end of last week, at .9969. The EC has moved sideways for weeks, returning to test its top level as described by Plazaview's early forecasts.

The EC for this week is positioned to move lower. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but moved sideways and recently, back to the July top. An unwinding of that January to July to recent price advance is now back in focus. The EC is at or near the end of its current advance. A sustainable advance is unlikely, buyers will find less interest in supporting the price. The lower target of .9313 is now an early forecasted objective.

Note: Forecast of the comparative inflation measurement through the Commodity Research Bureau's CRB index has now been exchanged by forecasts of the T-bond's 30 year yield rate.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-H) March price rallied last week. It traded in a range from $24.50 to $26.40, closing (+$1.96) higher, at $26.33. As forecast in Plazaview, a rebound was due.

This week, CO's price is recovering from the recent selling of a downtrend and inclined to rebound further, toward $28.13. As that target is attained, a choppy market may result as rallies will become vulnerable. A continued rebound is on track and due to eventually probe the top price. In more weeks of time, after rising higher, CO will seek stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU-H) March gasoline rallied last week. It traded from $.69 to $.7375, closing (+.0516) higher, the top of its range, at $.7375. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was vulnerable on a rally, due to the down trending cycle but near a bottom and a rally would result.
This week, HU's price is still under the pressure of a downtrend. It is now between targets of $.6959 and $.7882. HU remains vulnerable on each rally, due to the down trending cycle but the market is rising from a bottom. A possible continued rally of last week is likely this week, with $.7882 as the target but the downtrend is a limiting factor.

The (NY-HO-H) March heating oil price rallied last week. It traded from $.675 to $.7265, closing (+$.0564) higher, the top of its range, at $.7265. As forecast in Plazaview, HO was ready to rebound, higher.

This week, the HO market price is still in a downtrend. The range is between targets of $.6701 and $.7677. Continuation of last week's rally may be aided by the current, seasonal demands of cold winter weather usage. This may overcome the downtrend. More cold weather will force a second rebound from the recent decline and move HO toward the $.7677 target.

The (NY-NG-H) March natural gas price rallied last week. NG-H moved in a range of $4.03 to $4.24, closing (+$.199) higher, at $4.175. As forecast in Plazaview, the NG market was prepared to rally up to $4.25, on the seasonal effect of winter product demand. Last week, the market moved within $.01 short of that Plazaview forecast target.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in these energy markets. Another test of the $4.25 top area is likely. The market has been range bound, moving sideways since May of this year. Since August, NG is under the pressure of a developing down trend. NG-H is in a range between targets of $3.976 to $4.25. Winter weather is likely to prevail and may erode the downtrend in this market, with the other energies following or coinciding.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-2-2002 (S&P starts at 936.31)

Last week, the U.S. stock market traded in a narrow range, moving lower but it recovered, to close with a small advance by the end of the week. The S&P 500 traded down to 912.10 and up to 941.82, closing up (+5.76) for the week, at 936.31. As described previously in Plazaview, the market had a favorable base from which to rally again, despite vulnerability of the ongoing March 2000, correction. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its correction low but down by (-36.27%).

This week, the long term trend continues to be up. The immediate trend has turned upward and the March 2000, down trending correction is eroding (but not ended) with the current advance. A favorable price base, of eight weeks ago, is in place but this current advance remains vulnerable. The market is now inclined to rally and likely to regroup later, at lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804. The Bond market is indicating range bound volatility; stocks may perform accordingly.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved lower by the end of the week, as forecast in Plazaview. The week's range was from 106.23/32 to 103.31/32, closing (-.8/32) lower, at 105.11/32.

This week begins with the Bond in a renewed uptrend but a developing downtrend is in conflict. The Bond is range bound, between 112 and 102. This week begins below the mid-point of the Bond's range of the past eight weeks. The renewed uptrend indicates further upward potential but the Bond is drifting sideways, under the pressure of that developing counter-trend. This cross current of trends, indicates a lower Bond is as likely as rising this week, until there is a trend breakout.

The 30 year Bond yield rate finished higher last week, also hitting the 5.068% target as forecast in Plazaview. The yield rate moved down to 4.93% and up to 5.112%, closing at 5.048% last week.

The rate is currently rising. The Bond yield rate hit a low of 4.606% on September 24 of this year. The yield rate is nearly seven months into a range of 5.872% to 4.606%. This week begins at 5.048%, rising from the low end of the range. There is good potential to proceed higher, to 5.11% and 5.239% is a more distant target. On the low end of this week's range, the rate is as likely to hit 4.943%. Further out in time, the increasing rate is now in a rebounding phase and it will eventually meet a barrier of the still existent downtrend, begun in January of 2000. After rising further, that barrier will eventually (not this week) turn the rate back to lower end targets of 4.789% and 4.709%. For the foreseeable future, the downtrend appears to have established the lowest level at 4.606%. Confirmation of this maximum low will require time and events to end the downtrend; the process is underway.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved higher, again in the direction forecast by Plazaview. It held its critical position, near the low end in a consolidating range of five months. The price changed up (+.29), closing at 106.12.

This week, the dollar index remains critically poised to hold at its lower range or rally. The dollar is in a long-term upward trend, within an intermediate term downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has turned upward, mostly consolidating near the depth of its correction phase, a holding pattern for five months. The current rebound phase has been static, it is ready to trend higher. Eventually, it will return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency index moved lower, the direction forecast by Plazaview. The EC ranged from .997 to .9881, closing (-.0026) lower by the end of last week, at .9943. The EC has moved sideways for weeks, returning to test its top level and dropping from there as described by Plazaview's early forecasts.

The EC for this week is positioned to continue moving lower. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but moved sideways and recently, back to the July top. An unwinding of that January to July, to recent price advance is now back in focus. The EC is at or near the end of its current advance. A sustainable advance is unlikely, buyers will find less interest in supporting the price. The lower target of .9313 is now an early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-H) March price moved down but rebounded further as forecast. It remained in a narrow range of $25.79 to $26.70, closing (+$.11) higher, at $26.33. As forecast in Plazaview, a rebound is in progress.

This week, CO's price is recovering from the recent selling of a downtrend and it is inclined to rebound further, toward $28.13. As that target is attained, a choppy market may result as rallies will become vulnerable. A continued rebound is on track and due to eventually probe the top price. In more weeks of time, after rising higher, CO will seek stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU-H) March gasoline was under the pressure of a downtrend last week as described in Plazaview. It traded from $.7176 to $.74, closing lower (-.0034) lower, at $.7341. As forecast in Plazaview, the market was vulnerable on a rally, due to the down trending cycle but near a bottom.

This week, gasoline for March delivery (HU-H) is still under the pressure of a downtrend. It is between targets of $.6959 and $.7882. HU remains vulnerable on each rally, due to the down trending cycle. A possible continued rally of last week may break through the downtrend, with $.7882 as the target but the downtrend is a greater, limiting factor.

The (NY-HO-H) March heating oil price was narrowly traded last week. It traded from $.7098 to $.7280, closing (-$.0037) lower, at $.7228. As forecast in Plazaview, HO was still under the pressure of a downtrend and between targets of $.6701 and $.7677.

This week, the HO market price is technically in a downtrend but fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand. The range is between targets of $.6701 and $.7677. The seasonal cold of weather may overcome the downtrend and force a second rebound from the recent decline. Otherwise HO will drift sideways, waiting for a signal from unsettled Middle East events and the variable weather.

The (NY-NG-H) March natural gas price remained within the prior week's range last week. NG-H moved in a range of $4.24 to $4.03 closing (-$.127) lower, at $4.048. The NG market was ready to rally up to $4.25, on the seasonal effect of winter product demand but the market remained within $.01 short of that Plazaview forecast target for a second week.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in these energy markets. Another test of the $4.25 top area is likely but the market has been range bound, moving sideways since May of this year. Since August, NG is under the pressure of a developing down trend. NG-H is in a range between targets of $3.976 to $4.25. Winter weather is likely to prevail and may erode the downtrend in this market, with the other energies following or coinciding.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-9-2002 (S&P starts at 912.23)

Last week, the U.S. stock market was range bound, as forecast in Plazaview. The S & P 500 traded above and below the prior week's range. It was up to 954.28, down to 895.96 and recovered partially, closing down (-24.08) for the week, at 912.23. As described previously in Plazaview, the market has a favorable base from which to rally but the current advance is vulnerable to the ongoing, correction begun at March of 2000. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its September 2002, correction low but down by (-37.91%).

This week, the long term trend continues to be up. The immediate trend has turned upward and the March 2000, down trending correction is eroding but (it has not ended) with the current advance. A favorable price base of nine weeks ago, is in place but the current advance remains vulnerable. Although the market is now inclined to rally, it is likely to regroup, sooner or later, at lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804. The Bond market begins this week at a pivotal level and the end of week result may better indicate near term direction of the stock market.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved above and below the prior week's range, drifting and closing higher as forecast in Plazaview. The week's range went down to 103.9/32, up to 107.21/32 and closed (+19/32) higher, at 105.30/32.

This week begins with the Bond in a renewed uptrend but a developing downtrend is in conflict. The Bond needs to remove the conflicting downtrend and establish its direction. This week may be pivotal. If the Bond closes higher by the end of the week, it suspends the developing downtrend and reinstates the primary trend as rising. The Bond is still range bound, between 112 and 102. This week begins below the 107, mid-point of the past nine weeks. A renewed uptrend will indicate greater upward potential but the Bond needs a trend breakout.

The 30 year Bond yield rate moved up to 5.157% (hitting the forecast 5.11% target), down to 4.871%, also hitting the forecast 4.943% target as forecast in Plazaview. The yield rate closed (-0.0660%) lower, at 4.982% last week. Although it was down at the end of last week, the rate stayed within the upper range of the prior week.

The rate is currently rising. The Bond yield rate hit a low of 4.606% on September 24 of this year. The yield rate is nine months into a range of 5.872% to 4.606%. This week begins at 4.982%, rising from the more recent low end of the range. The rate has good potential to move lower this week, toward eventual targets at 4.789% and 4.709%. The rate is range bound as described above. Further out in time, a rise toward targets of 5.11% and 5.239% will meet a barrier of the still existent down trend, begun in January of 2000. For the foreseeable future, the downtrend appears to have established the lowest level at 4.606%. Confirmation of this maximum low will require time and events to end the downtrend; the process is underway.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower by the end of last week but remained within is range of the prior, four months. It continued to hold its critical position, near the low end in a consolidating range. The price changed down (-.76), closing at 105.36.

This week, the dollar index remains critically poised to hold at its lower range or rally. Further downside movement would be excessive and short-lived. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. It is at the low end of an intermediate term, downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has consolidated in the depth of its correction phase, a holding pattern for five months. The current rebound phase has been static. Eventually it will rebound, return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency moved higher, remaining below the top of its top seeking range for the prior three weeks. The EC ranged down to 0.9863, up to 1.0119, closing (+.0156) higher by the end of last week, at 1.0099. The EC has moved sideways for weeks, returning to test its top level and dropping from there as described by Plazaview's early forecasts.

The EC for this week is positioned to continue moving lower although it may attempt another brief visit to marginally higher levels. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but moved sideways and recently, it is again testing the July top. An unwinding of that January to July, to recent price advance is now testing the limits of its advance. The EC is at or near the end of its current advance. A sustainable advance is unlikely to support higher price levels. The lower target of .9313 is now an early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-H) March price moved narrowly last week but continued higher as forecast in Plazaview. It remained in a limited range of $26.20 to $27.10, closing (+$.27) higher, at $26.60. As forecast in Plazaview, a price rebound has been in progress.

This week, CO's price is inclined to rebound further, toward $28.13 but it may run into resistance at $27. As that target is attained, a choppy market may result, rallies will become vulnerable. A continued rebound is on track to eventually, probe the top price but this depends on a higher close, above $27.10 at the end of this week. In more weeks of time, after rising higher, CO will seek stability in the $25.00 area.

The (NY-HU-H) March gasoline was under the pressure of a downtrend, last week, as described in Plazaview. Still, it rose to the limit and closed just below the point of resistance. It traded from $.73 to $.7595, closing (+.0114) higher at $.7455.

This week, gasoline for March delivery (HU-H) is still under the pressure of a downtrend. It is between targets of $.6959 and $.7882. HU remains vulnerable on each rally, due to the down trending cycle. Another rally may break through the downtrend, with $.7882 as the target. The downtrend is a limiting factor but the $.7882 target is likely to be achieved if the market remains above $.7475 this week.

The (NY-HO-H) March heating oil price moved narrowly last week. It traded down to $.714, up to $.7447, closing (+$.0035) higher at $.7263. As forecast in Plazaview, HO was still under the pressure of a downtrend, between targets of $.6701 and $.7677, waiting for weather or Middle East events to move the market.

This week, the HO market price is technically in a downtrend but fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand. The range is between targets of $.6701 and $.7677. The seasonal cold of weather may overcome the downtrend and force a another rebound from the recent decline's low. Otherwise HO will drift sideways, waiting for a signal from unsettled Middle East events and the variable weather.

The (NY-NG-H) March natural gas price traded slightly above and below the prior week's range, last week, hitting the $4.25 target as forecast in Plazaview. The NG-H moved down to $4.001, up to $4.31, closing +$.2280, at $4.276. The NG market was ready to rally up to $4.25, on the seasonal effect of winter product demand.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in these energy markets. Last week's successful test of the $4.25 target has expanded the potential for higher prices. The market has been range bound, moving sideways since May of this year. Since August, NG is under the pressure of a developing down trend. NG-H is in a range, between a lower target of $3.976 and current, upper potentials of $4.495 and $4.975. Winter weather is likely to prevail and higher prices may erode the pending downtrend in this market, with the other energies following or coinciding.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 12-16-2002 (S&P starts at 889.48)

Last week, the U.S. stock market was down, moving toward the lower targets forecast in Plazaview. The S & P 500 traded from 910.96, down to 888.48 and closed down (-22.75), near its low for the week, at 889.48. As described previously in Plazaview, the market has a favorable base from which to rally but the recent advance is vulnerable to the ongoing correction, begun in March of 2000. At the close of last week, compared with 1999's year-end (1469.25), the S&P 500 was improved from its September 2002, correction low but down by (-39.46%).

This week, the long term trend is up; the immediate trend has rallied from an initial base but it is faltering and the March 2000, down trending correction has not ended with the recent advance. A favorable price base of ten weeks ago, is in place but the current advance remains vulnerable to moving back down, near the base. The market is now less inclined to sustain rallies and sooner or later, it will test the lower targets of (S&P 500) 842 or 804.

Last week, the cash T-bond moved mostly up but on Friday, drifted back down, still closing higher. The week's range went up to 108., down to 105.21/32,, and closed (+17/32) higher, at 106.15/32.

This week begins with the Bond in a renewed uptrend. While the Bond is trending upward in direction, it is forming a potential top. It is range bound, between the September high of 112 and 102. This week begins closer to the 107, mid-point of the past ten weeks's range. Last week's action has renewed the upward trend, confirming more upward movement.

The 30 year Bond yield rate moved from a high of 5.002%, down to 4.851%, moving lower for the week, as forecast in Plazaview. However, on Friday of last week, the rate partially recovered but still ended lower for the week. The yield rate closed (-0.0440%) lower, at 4.938% last week. Although it was down at the end of last week, the rate stayed within a rising, consolidation range, begun in October of ‘02.

The rate is consolidating in the area of recent lows, not yet ready to rise from a two year decline. Current low rates were last seen in the fourth quarter of 1998 and the first quarter of 1999. The rate topped out in January of 2000., hitting a low of 4.606% on September 24 of ‘02. The yield rate has been in a range of 5.872% to 4.606% since March of ‘02. This week begins at 4.938%, rising from the most recent low end of the range. The rate is not finished testings lower levels and this week, it may go closer to the eventual, lower targets of 4.789% and 4.709%. The rate is range bound as described above but after trading to these lower targets, further out in time, a rise toward targets of 5.11% and 5.239% will occur and meet a barrier of the still existent down trend, begun in January of 2000. For the foreseeable future, the downtrend appears to have established its lowest level at 4.606% and the rate has a good base there, from which to eventually rise. Confirmation of this maximum low will require time and events to end the downtrend; that process is underway.

Last week, the U.S. dollar's cash index moved lower in a range from 105.63 to 103.83, closing by the end of last week at 103.98, remaining within its range since July of ‘02. It continued to hold its critical position, near the low end in a consolidating range.

This week, the dollar index remains critically poised to hold near its lower range or rally. However, it is likely to break below the low end of its range. Further downside movement will be excessive and probably short-lived in weeks of time but the market must test lower before it is convinced of a bottom. The dollar is in a long-term, upward trend. It is and has been at the low end of an intermediate term, downward correction. Since July, the dollar index has consolidated in the depth of its correction phase, a holding pattern. Eventually it will rebound, return to an initial target of 111.70, then 119.41 and 120.22. Although delayed from rebounding, the dollar remains in a constructive, base building phase as forecast in Plazaview.

The Euro-Currency moved higher, above its top seeking range for the prior three weeks, as forecast in Plazaview. The EC ranged from 1.0062, up to 1.0257, closing (+.0135) higher by the end of last week, at 1.0234. The EC has moved sideways since July of ‘02, and last week, returned to test its top level.

The EC begins this week at a near term top, positioned to move lower. It may linger in marginally higher levels but a pull back is due, soon. In July, the EC began moving down, to correct an overextended advance but eventually, moved sideways and now it is again testing the July top. An unwinding of that January to July, to recent price advance is now testing the limits of its advance. The EC is at or near the end of its current advance. A sustainable advance is unlikely to support higher price levels without a pullback. The lower target of .9313 is now an early forecasted objective.

Crude oil's (NY-CO-H) March price moved up last week, as forecast in Plazaview. It traded in a range of $26.55 to $28.10 (to within $.03 of the $28.13 forecast target,) closing (+$1.33) higher, at $27.93. As forecast in Plazaview, a price rebound has been in progress.

This week, CO's price is inclined to rebound again, to the $28.13 target and possibly just above $28.37. As the target is attained, a pullback will result, followed by another advance for top price testing, over several weeks to come. In more weeks of time, CO will trade back down to targets of $22.4 and $20.

The (NY-HU-H) March gasoline shot up last week, breaking the downtrend and hitting the $.7882 target, forecast in Plazaview. HU-H rose from $.7495 to $.81, closing (+.0565) higher at $.802.

This week, gasoline for March delivery (HU-H) has attained its upper targets and is now due for a pullback, to an initial target of $.7455, in more time, to $.6859. The market is no longer in its former downtrend but further upside potential is now limited by the potential for a pullback to the area of at least the initial target.

The (NY-HO-H) March heating oil price moved up last week. It traded from $.728 to $.776, closing (+$.0452) higher at $.7715.

This week, the HO market price is near the top of its current range, fundamentally held aloft by seasonal product demand. The seasonal cold of weather may influence buyers and force another advance but that is likely to be limited as a pullback is now in order.

The (NY-NG-H) March natural gas price traded higher last week, hitting the $4.495 and $4.975 targets as forecast in Plazaview. The NG-H moved from $4.205, up to $5.10, closing +$.6590, at $4.935.

This week, as with HO, the seasonal effect of winter product demand and the unresolved Middle-East conflict sustains buyers in these energy markets. Last week's rally was a follow-up from the prior week's expansion of the potential for higher prices. The market is now due for a pullback, to a target of $3.976. This target may not be realized quickly as the market is rising in a significant uptrend. Still, the current rise is near exhaustion, near the end of its immediate range and sellers will return to the market at the first signal of absent buyers. After a pullback, the market will be better positioned to advance further again.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>