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Plazaview.com FORECAST for the week of MONDAY, 6-14-2004
Record of forecasts - Library: www.Plazaview.com

Current market focus:
Yield rates: 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond
Treasury note and bond funds: IEF is 7-10 year and TLT is 20+ year Bond fund.
U.S. stock market: NASDAQ-100, QQQ
Commodity Indices - Goldman Sachs (GI-) and CRB (CR-)

By the end of last week, the 10yr. T-note yield rate closed slightly higher, at 4.791%. The T-bond yield rate closed nearly unchanged for the week, at 5.465%.

This week, the yield rate of the T-note and the T-bond are in the June ‘03 rising trend but they are too advanced and should pull-back in a correction. The current rise potential is likely to be limited and followed by a downward correction. Ultimately, the Note could go down to 4.2% or 3.739%; the Bond will eventually correct down to 4.972% or 4.689%.

By the end of last week, the Amex listed IEF (7-10 year T-note fund) closed the week at five cents lower, $81.70. The TLT (20+ year T-bond fund) closed the week at two cents lower, $81.48.

The IEF and the TLT are in a falling trend but each is oversold and due to rally. The IEF may go back up to 85.20 or 87.55; the TLT may go back up to minimum of 89.55.

By the end of last week, the 30-year T-bond (cash index) closed (-)5/32 lower for the week at 98-22/32.

This week, the T-bond is approaching completion of what appears to be a March to May decline. The Bond is building a base of support in the area of 97-16/32 to 98-11/32. Eventually, it will rise back to the former range of 106 to 112.

By the end of last week, the NASDAQ-100, QQQ closed up for the week, at $36.84.

The QQQ has been in a rising trend since October of 2002. But, since January of this year, the QQQ has been in the falling trend of a correction. Since the week of 5-17-04, the QQQ has been in a rising trend. It to remain viable, it must continue higher and rise and hold above $38.60. Current range of downside risk is to $33. If the current rally fails and does not hold above $33., the correction trend may deepen and bring the QQQ as low as $24.

The Goldman Sachs commodity index (GI) and the CRB index have been in a rising trend since January of 2002. Last week, the GI closed lower for the week, at 292.20 and CRB closed lower, at 269.93. Both had become overextended in recent weeks . Now, they are correcting, downward. The GI is more extended, with greater downward potential. Increased demand is sustaining prices for raw materials and indicating continued economic growth. Crude oil is the major component of the increase in commodity index prices.

J. S. BICKFORD >>>>>>

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